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> targeted and incarcerated minorities Which minorities are being targeted? Black people (12% of US population) commit 55% of all homicides [1], but make up on

by MikeUt 6y ago

> targeted and incarcerated minorities Which minorities are being targeted? Black people (12% of US population) commit 55% of all homicides [1], but make up only 33% of the prison population [2]. If they were being targeted, wouldn't you expect their share of the prison population to exceed their share of homicides? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States#Homicide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_S... - These ratios closely match those given by victim surveys (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_States#Victim_surveys https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_crime_in_the_United_S...), which are immune to bias due to over-policing. [2] https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/06/share-of-black-white-hispanic-americans-in-prison-2018-vs-2006/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/05/06/share-of-bl...

kmos17 6y ago
You are comparing two different numbers, homicides with percent of prison population for all crimes? The opening paragraph on that first link you shared seems to directly contradict what you are saying “Overall, black Americans are arrested at 2.6 times the per-capita rate of all other Americans, and this ratio is even higher for murder (6.3 times) and robbery (8.1 times).”
- MikeUt 6y ago
  > You are comparing two different numbers, homicides with percent of prison population for all crimes? What do you find so confusing? I am using homicide as a proxy for all violent crime. Homicide because it is much harder to bias through over-policing, which is the usual rebuttal to using any kind of police data. You can also look at the victimization survey, which gives numbers for other crimes, without involving the police. It gives similar ratios of offense rates. > The opening paragraph on that first link you shared seems to directly contradict what you are saying It doesn't contradict me at all. It's comparing the population size to the rate of arrest. I am comparing the rate of imprisonment to the rate of violent crime committed. Of course if you only compare population size, without accounting for behavior, the imprisonment will be "disproportionate", just as people who study linguistics are "disproportionately" represented among translators.

by MikeUt 6y ago

kmos17 6y ago

You are comparing two different numbers, homicides with percent of prison population for all crimes? The opening paragraph on that first link you shared seems to directly contradict what you are saying “Overall, black Americans are arrested at 2.6 times the per-capita rate of all other Americans, and this ratio is even higher for murder (6.3 times) and robbery (8.1 times).”

MikeUt 6y ago
> You are comparing two different numbers, homicides with percent of prison population for all crimes? What do you find so confusing? I am using homicide as a proxy for all violent crime. Homicide because it is much harder to bias through over-policing, which is the usual rebuttal to using any kind of police data. You can also look at the victimization survey, which gives numbers for other crimes, without involving the police. It gives similar ratios of offense rates. > The opening paragraph on that first link you shared seems to directly contradict what you are saying It doesn't contradict me at all. It's comparing the population size to the rate of arrest. I am comparing the rate of imprisonment to the rate of violent crime committed. Of course if you only compare population size, without accounting for behavior, the imprisonment will be "disproportionate", just as people who study linguistics are "disproportionately" represented among translators.