> Could be that and explanation to the final part of the curve? In principle yes of course, but 1) there's an obvious mechanism which gives you a clear prior a

> Could be that and explanation to the final part of the curve? In principle yes of course, but 1) there's an obvious mechanism which gives you a clear prior and 2) this is not the first time people have looked at this type of data and the results are consistent across species and locales [1]. Makes looking for "alternative explanations" look like motivated reasoning to me. You might have a point if you actually had particular insight on how the species and cultivars used in Japan changed over time. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenology https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phenology for a starting point.