3 ms·

Good points. Don't forget the prediction of mass starvation made in the 1970s for the 80s, updated to the 90s then the 2000s and so on and so forth. Galactic

Good points. Don't forget the prediction of mass starvation made in the 1970s for the 80s, updated to the 90s then the 2000s and so on and so forth. Galactic gloom and doom is probably written into our genes which is why it makes its way into almost every western religion. Armageddon. We need to balance our natural proclivity for gloom and doom with plausible scenarios like pandemics, asteroid strikes, obesity epidemic, population declines instead of fantasy one that never come to pass or ones we have no control over.

the-dude 6y ago
In the 70s we would all freeze to death due to a new ice age. Thanks for the heads-up.
- titzer 6y ago
  No scientist ever seriously suggested this. At most they pointed out that a new ice age was coming...on schedule. In a couple thousand years.
  - haltingproblem 6y ago
    "the prognosis is for a long-lasting global cooling more severe than any experiened hitherto by civilized mankind." [1] [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0033589472900671 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/003358...
    - titzer 6y ago
      ....8000 years from now, as part of the normal interglacial cycle, which is exactly what I said. And given that civilization is less than 10000 years old, just returning to the previous ice age would technically fulfill the quote you tried so hard to pull out of context. Did you actually even read the entire abstract?
ska 6y ago
> Don't forget the prediction of mass starvation made in the 1970s for the 80 This didn't happen at any significant scale; I mean there were (correct) concerns about geopolitical forces leading to things like the mid 80s ethiopian faminei impact but no concern about wide spread starvation. There was concern about mass starvation in the earlier part of the century, and it was pretty well founded. This changed due the "green revolution" and massive increase in food production. What this shows is that predictive models can be made obsolete by new technology. Unfortunately, a lot of people take the wrong lesson from that. The assumption that new technology will arrive in time to address a well predicted problem is dangerously irrational.
- haltingproblem 6y ago
  "Dangerously stupid"? Please review the HN site usage guidelines.
  - ska 6y ago
    I’ll have a look bit suspect it’s on the right side of them, it’s an assumption not a person; updated anyway.

the-dude 6y ago

In the 70s we would all freeze to death due to a new ice age. Thanks for the heads-up.

titzer 6y ago
No scientist ever seriously suggested this. At most they pointed out that a new ice age was coming...on schedule. In a couple thousand years.
- haltingproblem 6y ago
  "the prognosis is for a long-lasting global cooling more severe than any experiened hitherto by civilized mankind." [1] [1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0033589472900671 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/003358...
  - titzer 6y ago
    ....8000 years from now, as part of the normal interglacial cycle, which is exactly what I said. And given that civilization is less than 10000 years old, just returning to the previous ice age would technically fulfill the quote you tried so hard to pull out of context. Did you actually even read the entire abstract?

ska 6y ago

> Don't forget the prediction of mass starvation made in the 1970s for the 80 This didn't happen at any significant scale; I mean there were (correct) concerns about geopolitical forces leading to things like the mid 80s ethiopian faminei impact but no concern about wide spread starvation. There was concern about mass starvation in the earlier part of the century, and it was pretty well founded. This changed due the "green revolution" and massive increase in food production. What this shows is that predictive models can be made obsolete by new technology. Unfortunately, a lot of people take the wrong lesson from that. The assumption that new technology will arrive in time to address a well predicted problem is dangerously irrational.

haltingproblem 6y ago
"Dangerously stupid"? Please review the HN site usage guidelines.
- ska 6y ago
  I’ll have a look bit suspect it’s on the right side of them, it’s an assumption not a person; updated anyway.