4 ms·

So previous record was in the 1400s, and was one day different. If this is directly tied to climate change then what was the cause then?

by soperj 6y ago

antasvara 6y ago
I like to think of this from a statistical perspective, where climate change makes the mean peak bloom come earlier in the year. However, there are lots of external factors that can affect peak bloom date as well. If you look at the graph in the linked article, you'd see that there's a wide variety of different peak dates even in the 1400's but that the overall trend is towards earlier in the year as we get closer to present day.
- soperj 6y ago
  There's been 2 peaks in March since the year 2000, and one was on the very last day of March. This is clearly an anomaly. If the article was about mean peak bloom then I wouldn't really have anything to say about it.
aeturnum 6y ago
Climate does fluctuate and there is randomness. When you look at the tend you can see how the line has recently taken a dramatic turn. The takeaway is that we've seen these conditions once in the last 1200 years, but based on recent data we expect things to continue to get hotter. As I saw someone say: don't think of this as the hottest year on record, think of this as the coolest year for the rest of your life.
- scaladev 6y ago
  >think of this as the coolest year for the rest of your life As someone who had to suffer through −40-45°C winters all my life, I can live with that. I don't know if it's due to climate change, but this winter was pretty tame. Only a few −40°C days in total, not three to four weeks as it always had been previously.
  - klyrs 6y ago
    In urban northern Canada, this sounds pretty great. Rural parts are facing a significant challenge, because ice roads are freezing later, and thawing earlier.
    - thaumasiotes 6y ago
      What do the ice-road places normally do in the summer? Freezing later and thawing earlier implies that freezing and thawing were expected anyway.
      - klyrs 6y ago
        In the summer, the only way to get deliveries is by air. In the winter, shipping is relatively cheap because of the ice roads. Folks try to minimize those costs by not shipping in the summer, only shipping in the winter. If the winter is shorter, these delivery opportunities are reduced. https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1863922243701 https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1863922243701
  - cloverich 6y ago
    haha yes living north could become more tolerable. But don’t forget that also means the more centrally located people will all be moving that direction soon.
smiley1437 6y ago
Assuming you are not just trolling, random fluctuations are expected to create the occasional outlier. The difference is the steep trend in the past 150 years.
- Alupis 6y ago
  OK, but do we have more data points for these cherry blossoms, or just the one the article is pointing out? How do we know this isn't another random fluctuation for cherry blossoms? Could it be global warming? Sure, but we need to be careful with our confirmation bias.
  - sueders101 6y ago
    >do we have more data points for these cherry blossoms Yes, the article includes a nice graphic showing the "peak bloom day of the year". It shows that average peak bloom date has been getting steadily earlier in recent history.

So previous record was in the 1400s, and was one day different. If this is directly tied to climate change then what was the cause then?

by soperj 6y ago

So previous record was in the 1400s, and was one day different. If this is directly tied to climate change then what was the cause then?

antasvara 6y ago

I like to think of this from a statistical perspective, where climate change makes the mean peak bloom come earlier in the year. However, there are lots of external factors that can affect peak bloom date as well. If you look at the graph in the linked article, you'd see that there's a wide variety of different peak dates even in the 1400's but that the overall trend is towards earlier in the year as we get closer to present day.

soperj 6y ago
There's been 2 peaks in March since the year 2000, and one was on the very last day of March. This is clearly an anomaly. If the article was about mean peak bloom then I wouldn't really have anything to say about it.

aeturnum 6y ago

Climate does fluctuate and there is randomness. When you look at the tend you can see how the line has recently taken a dramatic turn. The takeaway is that we've seen these conditions once in the last 1200 years, but based on recent data we expect things to continue to get hotter. As I saw someone say: don't think of this as the hottest year on record, think of this as the coolest year for the rest of your life.

scaladev 6y ago
>think of this as the coolest year for the rest of your life As someone who had to suffer through −40-45°C winters all my life, I can live with that. I don't know if it's due to climate change, but this winter was pretty tame. Only a few −40°C days in total, not three to four weeks as it always had been previously.
- klyrs 6y ago
  In urban northern Canada, this sounds pretty great. Rural parts are facing a significant challenge, because ice roads are freezing later, and thawing earlier.
  - thaumasiotes 6y ago
    What do the ice-road places normally do in the summer? Freezing later and thawing earlier implies that freezing and thawing were expected anyway.
    - klyrs 6y ago
      In the summer, the only way to get deliveries is by air. In the winter, shipping is relatively cheap because of the ice roads. Folks try to minimize those costs by not shipping in the summer, only shipping in the winter. If the winter is shorter, these delivery opportunities are reduced. https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1863922243701 https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1863922243701
- cloverich 6y ago
  haha yes living north could become more tolerable. But don’t forget that also means the more centrally located people will all be moving that direction soon.

smiley1437 6y ago

Assuming you are not just trolling, random fluctuations are expected to create the occasional outlier. The difference is the steep trend in the past 150 years.

Alupis 6y ago
OK, but do we have more data points for these cherry blossoms, or just the one the article is pointing out? How do we know this isn't another random fluctuation for cherry blossoms? Could it be global warming? Sure, but we need to be careful with our confirmation bias.
- sueders101 6y ago
  >do we have more data points for these cherry blossoms Yes, the article includes a nice graphic showing the "peak bloom day of the year". It shows that average peak bloom date has been getting steadily earlier in recent history.