3 ms·
That's really what all the "sensible" people (myself included) - were saying back in 1996 when P-E valuations really went off the rails. Yes, there were drops,
by Pokepokalypse 6y ago
That's really what all the "sensible" people (myself included) - were saying back in 1996 when P-E valuations really went off the rails.
Yes, there were drops, crashes, and those hurt a lot of people, but in the long run, growth has continued to go up.
- gruez 6y ago>were saying back in 1996 when P-E valuations really went off the rails. At least this time around, it's worth noting that money has become much cheaper, which inflates the price of every asset. When that's factored in, the present valuations are actually quite reasonable.
- tertius 6y ago> the present valuations are actually quite reasonable. Any charts to show this?
- triangleman 6y agoYes, in the long run the economy is driven by productivity growth. However there are debt cycles at work: https://economicprinciples.org/ https://economicprinciples.org/ The world may be near the end of a long-term debt cycle, we will have to see. In 1996 PE multiples were indeed high and there was indeed a correction. For instance the Nasdaq went from 1300 at the end of 1996, to over 5000, and back to 1300 in 2002. There was obviously productivity growth over 7 years, but valuations are another thing entirely.
- habitue 6y agoJust a disclaimer for people reading, `economicprinciples.org`, despite having a very official sounding name, is presenting Ray Dalio's theories, not widely held economic principles. None of it seems to me (although I am not an economist), but it should probably be taken with a grain of salt.