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Greece is a EU member state. The whole EU would react to such a thing - which is why Turkey would never do something that dumb. Russia, ever the villain (and o

by eloff 6y ago

Greece is a EU member state. The whole EU would react to such a thing - which is why Turkey would never do something that dumb. Russia, ever the villain (and oft deserved) is also not dumb. The most likely flashpoints for major conflict in my eyes are Pakistan - India, India - China, and China - Taiwan. It's a stretch to picture the French getting involved in any of those. Major conflict in Europe just doesn't seem likely to me.

realusername 6y ago
> Greece is a EU member state. The whole EU would react to such a thing - which is why Turkey would never do something that dumb. That's exactly because EU members would react that Turkey doesn't do it and preparing for this scenario is exactly how you prevent it.
reducesuffering 6y ago
Unless you don't consider it major, I think you're missing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that just happened 6 months ago, with a huge ability to spiral out of control, cause a humanitarian crisis, which Turkey will definitely get involved in supporting Azerbaijan. There is now really bad blood between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and Armenians still live in Nagorno-Karabakh, currently only safeguarded by Russian troops. That situation is still a tinderbox until an actual resolution is achieved and generations have passed.
- eloff 6y ago
  I wouldn't describe that as major (I wasn't aware of it) but it looks like a mess.
- wavefunction 6y ago
  Turkey was already involved in recent hostilities. Armenia alleged Turkish troops and air support were involved in the fighting in December while Azerbaijan claims Turkish involvement was limited to "military advisors".
dmos62 6y ago
Major conflict is a relative term, but I'd call Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia major conflicts that happened in Europe within last ~20 years.
- eloff 6y ago
  Those are not the kind of major WWII style conflicts discussed in the article.
  - astrobe_ 6y ago
    I believe it did not escalate to a major conflict because UE carefully avoided it. Ukraine, in my profane view, was clearly a casus belli for UE, as this country, IIRC, was seriously considering joining the UE and UE members were not objecting (unlike for Turkey - some say this rejection was the cause of Erdogan).
    - dmos62 6y ago
      For those confused by the acronym UE, it's the acronym for the European Union in some languages.
      - astrobe_ 6y ago
        Sorry, habits. I have the same problem with AI/IA.
  - tablespoon 6y ago
    >> Major conflict is a relative term, but I'd call Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia major conflicts that happened in Europe within last ~20 years. > Those are not the kind of major WWII style conflicts discussed in the article. WWII-style conflicts are an especially major type. They were so unusually major that the "world war" moniker was coined for them, because calling them a plain "war" just wouldn't do, and anything similarly unusually major would probably be cataclysmic at this point. I don't think that should be the threshold for calling something "major."
tomjen3 6y ago
I am not sure Russia would not attempt to take the Baltics. They directly border Russia, has previously been a part of the Soviet Union, etc. It would depend entirely on how Europe and the US reacts of course. If Europe stand united then Russia would stay out. If the US was willing to get involved then Russia would stay out. Possibly France and Poland could stop Russia from taking the Baltics, but I don't think so. I would have said Turkey wouldn't do anything, but with Erodogan I don't know any longer. As for major conflicts in Europe, I have seen, stood on and crawled in the bunkers from the Atlantic wall (not hard, they are still very much a part of the landscape here in Denmark) I have seen the beeches in Normandy that are still marked by shell holes (or possibly granade holes). It is a nice reminder that major conflicts really did happen there. I too used to think they would not happen in Europe ever again, because we could always count on the US as the backer of the peace and then nobody else would do anything. That got a shock on 9/11, and then the deal (which to be fair was never very good for the US) got a serious wack with the Trump administration. Without guaranteed US backing, the peace in Europe seems a lot less solid. A united Europe (especially with the ability to buy weapons from the US, which I don't think is going to be an issue) is still very strong (and Russia isn't), but Europe is not united in much. And the public certainly isn't going to be happy with large scale war. We like our public safety nets, easy lives and long summers just as much as the next person. Anyway that is a long armchair comment about the sentiment here in Europe.
- eloff 6y ago
  I think we can get some idea of what Russia would risk from how the acted with the Ukraine. Shadow warfare, proxy warfare, territory annexation. It would be a serious escalation in strategy and risk to invade and annex a Baltic state. It seems unlikely to me, for what it's worth. Turkey is expanding their influence on their neighborhood, but they won't seek out conflict with the EU, that's suicide. Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage.
  - reducesuffering 6y ago
    > Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage. Russia's GDP is twice the size of Turkey. Russia is more similar to UK/France/Canada than Turkey.[0] [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...
deleted 6y ago
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by eloff 6y ago

realusername 6y ago

> Greece is a EU member state. The whole EU would react to such a thing - which is why Turkey would never do something that dumb. That's exactly because EU members would react that Turkey doesn't do it and preparing for this scenario is exactly how you prevent it.

reducesuffering 6y ago

Unless you don't consider it major, I think you're missing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that just happened 6 months ago, with a huge ability to spiral out of control, cause a humanitarian crisis, which Turkey will definitely get involved in supporting Azerbaijan. There is now really bad blood between ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis, and Armenians still live in Nagorno-Karabakh, currently only safeguarded by Russian troops. That situation is still a tinderbox until an actual resolution is achieved and generations have passed.

eloff 6y ago
I wouldn't describe that as major (I wasn't aware of it) but it looks like a mess.
wavefunction 6y ago
Turkey was already involved in recent hostilities. Armenia alleged Turkish troops and air support were involved in the fighting in December while Azerbaijan claims Turkish involvement was limited to "military advisors".

dmos62 6y ago

Major conflict is a relative term, but I'd call Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia major conflicts that happened in Europe within last ~20 years.

eloff 6y ago
Those are not the kind of major WWII style conflicts discussed in the article.
- astrobe_ 6y ago
  I believe it did not escalate to a major conflict because UE carefully avoided it. Ukraine, in my profane view, was clearly a casus belli for UE, as this country, IIRC, was seriously considering joining the UE and UE members were not objecting (unlike for Turkey - some say this rejection was the cause of Erdogan).
  - dmos62 6y ago
    For those confused by the acronym UE, it's the acronym for the European Union in some languages.
    - astrobe_ 6y ago
      Sorry, habits. I have the same problem with AI/IA.
- tablespoon 6y ago
  >> Major conflict is a relative term, but I'd call Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine and Armenia major conflicts that happened in Europe within last ~20 years. > Those are not the kind of major WWII style conflicts discussed in the article. WWII-style conflicts are an especially major type. They were so unusually major that the "world war" moniker was coined for them, because calling them a plain "war" just wouldn't do, and anything similarly unusually major would probably be cataclysmic at this point. I don't think that should be the threshold for calling something "major."

tomjen3 6y ago

I am not sure Russia would not attempt to take the Baltics. They directly border Russia, has previously been a part of the Soviet Union, etc. It would depend entirely on how Europe and the US reacts of course. If Europe stand united then Russia would stay out. If the US was willing to get involved then Russia would stay out. Possibly France and Poland could stop Russia from taking the Baltics, but I don't think so. I would have said Turkey wouldn't do anything, but with Erodogan I don't know any longer. As for major conflicts in Europe, I have seen, stood on and crawled in the bunkers from the Atlantic wall (not hard, they are still very much a part of the landscape here in Denmark) I have seen the beeches in Normandy that are still marked by shell holes (or possibly granade holes). It is a nice reminder that major conflicts really did happen there. I too used to think they would not happen in Europe ever again, because we could always count on the US as the backer of the peace and then nobody else would do anything. That got a shock on 9/11, and then the deal (which to be fair was never very good for the US) got a serious wack with the Trump administration. Without guaranteed US backing, the peace in Europe seems a lot less solid. A united Europe (especially with the ability to buy weapons from the US, which I don't think is going to be an issue) is still very strong (and Russia isn't), but Europe is not united in much. And the public certainly isn't going to be happy with large scale war. We like our public safety nets, easy lives and long summers just as much as the next person. Anyway that is a long armchair comment about the sentiment here in Europe.

eloff 6y ago
I think we can get some idea of what Russia would risk from how the acted with the Ukraine. Shadow warfare, proxy warfare, territory annexation. It would be a serious escalation in strategy and risk to invade and annex a Baltic state. It seems unlikely to me, for what it's worth. Turkey is expanding their influence on their neighborhood, but they won't seek out conflict with the EU, that's suicide. Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage.
- reducesuffering 6y ago
  > Turkey and Russia could be a problematic situation though. They're similarly sized economies, although Russia has a serious military advantage. Russia's GDP is twice the size of Turkey. Russia is more similar to UK/France/Canada than Turkey.[0] [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nomi...

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]