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So we can rule out an attack in the immediate future, and in fact we'll see the buildup for an attack with lots of advance warning. There's just no way to move
by jasonwatkinspdx 6y ago
So we can rule out an attack in the immediate future, and in fact we'll see the buildup for an attack with lots of advance warning. There's just no way to move around 100k plus troops and their equipment without it being observed.
China currently lacks sufficient amphibious assault ships to actually move enough troops to take control of the island. They certainly can bomb the crap out of it, but they won't have the resources necessary for boots on the ground for some time still.
They're building ships fast, but it's still something like a 15 year horizon before they'll have sufficient material, perhaps longer. At the least we can expect them to wait until the 2 carriers they're constructing are done.
Most credible analysts I've read believe a serious attempt at invading the island won't come until Xi's successor. Rick Joe is good to read on this topic. He writes for the major media outlets, as well as posting as PLARealtalk on reddit.