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>At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more. The US has a permanent int
by onepointsixC 6y ago
>At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.
The US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non CCP aligned Taiwan. The only thing that time and time again frustrated the ambitions of Great Powers has been geography. Taiwan is the cork in the bottle containing the PLAN within the first island chain, without which China can operate freely throughout the Pacific. Just about every projection has China become the world's largest economy. America's only play to maintain dominance is to make sure that the tyranny of geography restrains the Chinese from operating militarily as freely as they would want. Much American blood had been shed in winning the Pacific in the first place. America is willing to shed more blood to keep it that way.
- monocasa 6y agoThe same way the US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non Russian Federation aligned Crimea. If Taiwan looses it's economic value (say, chip production becomes a commodity when Moore's law truly ends, and the CCP subsidizes local chip production to kill off TSMC), it may not be worth the nuclear war to the CCP 'no'.