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"Collapse" is a bit hyperbolic. It will absolutely cause problems, but over the long term, not overnight. Japan is several decades ahead of China on the same
by Clewza313 6y ago
"Collapse" is a bit hyperbolic.
It will absolutely cause problems, but over the long term, not overnight.
Japan is several decades ahead of China on the same path, its population has been declining since 2011, and they have not imploded yet.
- jcranmer 6y agoImploded, no, but the Japanese economy basically peaked in 1991 and has yet to really recover (the so-called Lost Decade, although it's been well more than a decade now). As I understand it (this is before my time), in the 1980s, there was a widespread consensus that Japan was on the precipice of upstaging the US, much as there is a similar consensus nowadays that China is on the precipice of upstaging the US. That Japan failed to do so should augur difficulty for China to do the same.
- AYBABTME 6y agoWhat makes Japan be a good predictor of China's faith?
- scottLobster 6y agoYeah, and among the problems it will cause is a stagnation of Chinese economic growth and a decrease in young people. Both of which make large-scale military adventures extremely difficult. CCP requires economic growth for popular support, this is one reason for the Belt and Road Initiative and other dumping policies, gotta keep those factories running at all costs. If growth stagnates or declines and unemployment spikes, things will get bloody. Also China's demographic dividend will end while it's at a much lower stage of development than Japan in the 80s/90s. And unlike Japan, China's managed to piss off pretty much every major power who might have been inclined to help them.