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You’ve summed it up well. But, I still think Taiwan is next. China has been getting more and more aggressive there. A friend of mine lives in Taiwan, and told m
by christophilus 6y ago
You’ve summed it up well. But, I still think Taiwan is next. China has been getting more and more aggressive there. A friend of mine lives in Taiwan, and told me that the Chinese have sent fighter jets deeper and deeper into the island’s airspace of late.
The US will make a lot of noise, but I’m going to say there’d be no hot war between the US and China.
Also, I suspect the PRC will do a fair bit of soft work before making that move. You’ll see pro PRC activism rise in Taiwan so that an invasion no longer seems so black and white.
Now, if China ever made a move on Japan, things would be different. But I don’t see that happening. Once China has Taiwan, they control the waters in that area, and there is no need to invade Japan. Japan would basically have to comply with China at that point.
From there, China just does their thing, expanding their sphere of influence, etc, taking over small targets that won’t raise too much ire from the rest of the world.
Anyway, if we’re making predictions, that’s my current one.
- quink 6y ago> You’ll see pro PRC activism rise in Taiwan Pro-PRC activism is so dead that even anti-CCP activism in the form of the KMT is starting to look on life support. Yeah, there's media organisations that have ties with the PRC and CCP. There's businesspeople that do. But the population at large is more and more that of the fiercely sovereign independent nation of Taiwan. Saying Taiwan is an independent country would "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people" is more and more like saying Austria is an independent country would "hurt the feelings of the German people".
- Daho0n 6y agoYou are naïve if you think it matters. What matters is if pro-CCP activism is in international news or not. Not if it actually represent the average citizen. It would only matter if it was a vote.