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>And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene. The most absolutely do. They might not want to, but they have no choice. Taiwan is a shackle in a long c
by anvandare 6y ago
>And you can bet the US has no intention to intervene.
The most absolutely do. They might not want to, but they have no choice. Taiwan is a shackle in a long chain:
From South Korea, across the Korean strait, to Japan.
From Japan, along the Ryukyu islands to Taiwan.
From Taiwan, across the Luzon strait, to the Philippines.
From there to Malaysia (and Singapore) and Indonesia.
Almost nowhere along this 4000 mile chain is there a gap wider than 100 miles.
It is this chain which keeps China from freely accessing the Pacific Ocean.
If China could break through they would have unlimited access to the Pacific. And from
there to the rest of the world. That is an existential threat to the USA.
That is why China wants Taiwan. That is why the US can not allow China to take Taiwan. Both sides know this.
So yes, China could most likely take Taiwan through war (albeit it at a high cost). But wars are not over when one side says it's over.
The USA would absolutely carry on a multi-year war to regain Taiwan. They would much rather fight the PLAN
five miles off Taipei than fight it five miles off Honolulu or San Francisco.
- Daho0n 6y agoNot a chance. The US would instantly have at least one carrier sunk minutes after declaring and that alone could break morale. It's like saying the US would go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Over Taiwan war is either not going to happen or it will be nuclear war. Whichs sounds most likely? The US will sanction and draw lots of red lines in the sand and then tug its tail between its legs.
- anvandare 6y ago>The US would instantly have at least one carrier sunk minutes after declaring and that alone could break morale. Isn't that the exact reasoning which led to the attack on Pearl Harbor? "One quick strike and they'll be out of the war..." >The US will sanction and draw lots of red lines in the sand and then tug its tail between its legs. And that's the kind of reasoning that led to Ukraine being invaded by Russia. The inevitable result of China being allowed to take Taiwan is China sailing their own carrier fleets along the West Coast a decade or two later. Absolutely unacceptable. Great Powers will always use force when faced with an existential threat. The thing that usually leads to a war is thinking the other side lacks the willingness to go to war.
- Daho0n 6y agoIn the pearl harbor analogy the US would be Japan, believing a naval force could win. >And that's the kind of reasoning that led to Ukraine being invaded by Russia. Yes, the US will draw lines and do nothing. Just like with Ukraine. PRC sailing a carrier fleet just outside US waters is absolutely acceptable. The US made it so by doing the exact same thing to everyone else. It's only a matter of time before they have the capability. The big difference is that the US might go to war over such a thing unlike anybody else. Another superpower is needed to stop the aggression by the US. US navel fleets belong in US waters. US bases belongs only on US land. If it takes PRC to do this then I'll happily cheer them along.
- ekianjo 6y ago> The USA would absolutely carry on a multi-year war to regain Taiwan. Where is the sign that USA is beefing up for such an obvious confrontation in the future? I don't see it.