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Ah yes short victorious war. Because taking over an island is so easy. Chinese economy is also completely dependent on imports. US does not need sail its carri

by tlear 6y ago

Ah yes short victorious war. Because taking over an island is so easy. Chinese economy is also completely dependent on imports. US does not need sail its carriers to Taiwan, it needs to park half a dozen attack subs on Chinese trade routes. Same applies to Taiwanese program to build indigenous electric subs with help of Japan, once even few those are complete the equation changes completely. PRC has no chance in hell for an amphibious landing operation in Taiwan. So this is going to take quite a while. Having said that US resolve switches around every 4 years so given a proper timing they might sit it out. However there are some interesting consequences. Japan will test a nuclear weapon and a delivery system and commence crash manufacturing program to assemble an arsenal in matter of weeks. US will get kicked out from Okinawa and mainland Japan and most likely a containment alliance between India, Japan and Australia will become not just paper but more like NATO with Joint command, staff, plans etc. I wonder what Vietnam will do, lets hope for their sake they have a secret nuclear program.

ekianjo 6y ago
> PRC has no chance in hell for an amphibious landing operation in Taiwan. So this is going to take quite a while. PRC would easily have air superiority in no time.
- tlear 5y ago
  Which is irrelevant when you do not have lift capacity, landing assets or any ability to actually supply the landing force. They could MAYBE land a brigade(which they could not supply for any length of time), said brigade would get squashed during night counter attack on day 1. Landing a modern military force ashore then suplying it requires immense naval capacity that PRC just does not have. They could obtain it but such buildup would be impossible to hide and would take time. Not to mention you need to practice actually doing it.. before D-day allies landed in Diep, in NA, Sicily and Italy. From zero to landing on beaches in Taiwan would make Galipolee seem like height of military genius.

by tlear 6y ago

ekianjo 6y ago

> PRC has no chance in hell for an amphibious landing operation in Taiwan. So this is going to take quite a while. PRC would easily have air superiority in no time.

tlear 5y ago
Which is irrelevant when you do not have lift capacity, landing assets or any ability to actually supply the landing force. They could MAYBE land a brigade(which they could not supply for any length of time), said brigade would get squashed during night counter attack on day 1. Landing a modern military force ashore then suplying it requires immense naval capacity that PRC just does not have. They could obtain it but such buildup would be impossible to hide and would take time. Not to mention you need to practice actually doing it.. before D-day allies landed in Diep, in NA, Sicily and Italy. From zero to landing on beaches in Taiwan would make Galipolee seem like height of military genius.