I’d encourage you to just apply to some good programs, don’t get psyched out by your perceptions of the competition. Grades, papers, recommendations are all i

I’d encourage you to just apply to some good programs, don’t get psyched out by your perceptions of the competition. Grades, papers, recommendations are all important, but they’re not everything. There’s a certain randomness to the graduate admissions process - different departments have differing values and priorities, and often the graduate admissions committee is different year to year. Many departments just use grades and such as a heuristic to help narrow the pool. A demonstrated ability to write well (put time and care into your statements) and think independently count for a whole lot.