4 ms·

" but vaccines do not bring in the bacon." As in, "do not generate enough income"? Really? Now?

by hutzlibu 6y ago

azernik 6y ago
Now is a very atypical situation :-P
- technick 6y ago
  You've never been to Florida have you?
  - azernik 6y ago
    Does Florida typically throw billions of dollars at vaccine development?
hadlock 6y ago
Current pricing for mRNA vaccines is something in the $4-7 dollars (that's $7.00 dollars, not $7,000.00 dollars) range. Compare that to one of the Hepatitis C treatments, which costs north of $350,000 by several accounts. Even remdesivir is something like $3000 for a course.
- hutzlibu 6y ago
  "Hepatitis C treatments" We don't really need the same quantities of that, though.
  - mikecoles 6y ago
    https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/data-and-trends/index.html https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/da... It can be said that hepatitis care is more necessary than covid.
    - hutzlibu 6y ago
      The world is not in lockdown becuse of hepatitis, though.
      - TeMPOraL 6y ago
        Hepatitis isn't airborne, though, so it doesn't have an exponent threatening to blow up in everyone's face.
- failwhaleshark 6y ago
  There are roughly 75 million HCV infections in the world. That translates to a total cure cost of: 75M * $350k = $26.25T There are other ARV treatments available which cost now roughly $50-100k and cure in 3 months. Whereas immunizing everyone against coronaviruses currently costs: 8B * $7 = $56B Clearly, the costs of the HCV cure are predatory and unreasonable because it doesn't lead to eradication and it's inaccessible to the poor and the third-world.
  - adgjlsfhk1 6y ago
    It's also worth noting that if it's $7 for the payer, there's a lot less than $7 of profit.
    - failwhaleshark 6y ago
      The true unit cost is probably $6 per dose. The COVID vaccines may break-even short-term. Long-term, it's probably worth keeping an extra 120M potential customers alive for what will probably result in a small profit. The true unit cost of HCV cures is unknowable but possibly half of the current price.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
retrac 6y ago
Yes, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so. And worst of all, usually just one or two doses. For all the horror HIV has wrought, global spending on vaccine development for HIV has been around $1 billion a year for the last few years. In contrast, the USA federal government spends $3 billion a year for HIV antiviral drugs for low-income Americans. $20,000 per patient per year for life. Unsurprisingly, new antivirals are where most of the research is. It can sound almost like a conspiracy if I put it like that, but it's just the economics incentives. Especially since the developed countries where most of the market for charging a decent markup is, have the smallest market for most new vaccines, while having the largest markets for therapeutics for chronic conditions. Now HIV is genuinely devillish to develop a vaccine for despite our attempts. But vaccines for hepatitis C, gonorrhea, HSV, among others appear to be possible. We almost certainly could develop effective vaccines for these with existing techniques, if someone coughed up the funding. Maybe all the buzz about mRNA vaccines will spur some progress here.
- hutzlibu 6y ago
  "es, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so" But since the demand is 14 000 000 000 doses, there should still be a little bit of money in it?
  - retrac 6y ago
    Yes, clearly. With COVID-19, there is pretty much guaranteed market for about ten billion doses. Along with direct investment by governments in wealthier countries. Most people, including politicians, want a COVID-19 vaccine real bad. The parent poster was describing the situation with vaccine development in general, to which COVID-19 is quite the exception. A potential hepatitis C vaccine for example has very different economics, as it would not be deployed anywhere nearly as widely or quickly. Consider that, 40 years after hepatitis B immunization became available, the majority of Americans haven't been jabbed with it.
  - kube-system 6y ago
    Yes, but a pandemic only comes around every hundred years or so. Moderna happened to be in the right place at the right time for this one, but delivering vaccines for a pandemic is not much of a solid business plan.
refurb 6y ago
Vaccines can be very lucrative. Pfizer has billions in sales for Pentacel.

" but vaccines do not bring in the bacon." As in, "do not generate enough income"? Really? Now?

azernik 6y ago

Now is a very atypical situation :-P

technick 6y ago
You've never been to Florida have you?
- azernik 6y ago
  Does Florida typically throw billions of dollars at vaccine development?

hadlock 6y ago

Current pricing for mRNA vaccines is something in the $4-7 dollars (that's $7.00 dollars, not $7,000.00 dollars) range. Compare that to one of the Hepatitis C treatments, which costs north of $350,000 by several accounts. Even remdesivir is something like $3000 for a course.

hutzlibu 6y ago
"Hepatitis C treatments" We don't really need the same quantities of that, though.
- mikecoles 6y ago
  https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/data-and-trends/index.html https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/da... It can be said that hepatitis care is more necessary than covid.
  - hutzlibu 6y ago
    The world is not in lockdown becuse of hepatitis, though.
    - TeMPOraL 6y ago
      Hepatitis isn't airborne, though, so it doesn't have an exponent threatening to blow up in everyone's face.
failwhaleshark 6y ago
There are roughly 75 million HCV infections in the world. That translates to a total cure cost of: 75M * $350k = $26.25T There are other ARV treatments available which cost now roughly $50-100k and cure in 3 months. Whereas immunizing everyone against coronaviruses currently costs: 8B * $7 = $56B Clearly, the costs of the HCV cure are predatory and unreasonable because it doesn't lead to eradication and it's inaccessible to the poor and the third-world.
- adgjlsfhk1 6y ago
  It's also worth noting that if it's $7 for the payer, there's a lot less than $7 of profit.
  - failwhaleshark 6y ago
    The true unit cost is probably $6 per dose. The COVID vaccines may break-even short-term. Long-term, it's probably worth keeping an extra 120M potential customers alive for what will probably result in a small profit. The true unit cost of HCV cures is unknowable but possibly half of the current price.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

retrac 6y ago

Yes, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so. And worst of all, usually just one or two doses. For all the horror HIV has wrought, global spending on vaccine development for HIV has been around $1 billion a year for the last few years. In contrast, the USA federal government spends $3 billion a year for HIV antiviral drugs for low-income Americans. $20,000 per patient per year for life. Unsurprisingly, new antivirals are where most of the research is. It can sound almost like a conspiracy if I put it like that, but it's just the economics incentives. Especially since the developed countries where most of the market for charging a decent markup is, have the smallest market for most new vaccines, while having the largest markets for therapeutics for chronic conditions. Now HIV is genuinely devillish to develop a vaccine for despite our attempts. But vaccines for hepatitis C, gonorrhea, HSV, among others appear to be possible. We almost certainly could develop effective vaccines for these with existing techniques, if someone coughed up the funding. Maybe all the buzz about mRNA vaccines will spur some progress here.

hutzlibu 6y ago
"es, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so" But since the demand is 14 000 000 000 doses, there should still be a little bit of money in it?
- retrac 6y ago
  Yes, clearly. With COVID-19, there is pretty much guaranteed market for about ten billion doses. Along with direct investment by governments in wealthier countries. Most people, including politicians, want a COVID-19 vaccine real bad. The parent poster was describing the situation with vaccine development in general, to which COVID-19 is quite the exception. A potential hepatitis C vaccine for example has very different economics, as it would not be deployed anywhere nearly as widely or quickly. Consider that, 40 years after hepatitis B immunization became available, the majority of Americans haven't been jabbed with it.
- kube-system 6y ago
  Yes, but a pandemic only comes around every hundred years or so. Moderna happened to be in the right place at the right time for this one, but delivering vaccines for a pandemic is not much of a solid business plan.

refurb 6y ago

Vaccines can be very lucrative. Pfizer has billions in sales for Pentacel.