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Modern a has been working on mRNA since 2010 and mRNA vaccines since 2012. They have the process down pretty solid, but vaccines do not bring in the bacon.

by o-__-o 6y ago

azernik 6y ago
Now that they've spent a year developing the mass-production methods and infrastructure, it might bring in the bacon! e.g. there's a steady annual market for a flu vaccine for whatever the latest strain is, and being able to get that to market faster than the competition could give them an edge. I just don't think it was every profitable enough for them to put in this enormous capital expenditure.
- dylan604 6y ago
  When you can have Uncle Sam cover that capex, it makes it even more financially appealing.
hutzlibu 6y ago
" but vaccines do not bring in the bacon." As in, "do not generate enough income"? Really? Now?
- azernik 6y ago
  Now is a very atypical situation :-P
  - technick 6y ago
    You've never been to Florida have you?
    - azernik 6y ago
      Does Florida typically throw billions of dollars at vaccine development?
- hadlock 6y ago
  Current pricing for mRNA vaccines is something in the $4-7 dollars (that's $7.00 dollars, not $7,000.00 dollars) range. Compare that to one of the Hepatitis C treatments, which costs north of $350,000 by several accounts. Even remdesivir is something like $3000 for a course.
  - hutzlibu 6y ago
    "Hepatitis C treatments" We don't really need the same quantities of that, though.
    - mikecoles 6y ago
      https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/data-and-trends/index.html https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/da... It can be said that hepatitis care is more necessary than covid.
      - hutzlibu 6y ago
        The world is not in lockdown becuse of hepatitis, though.
        TeMPOraL 6y ago
        Hepatitis isn't airborne, though, so it doesn't have an exponent threatening to blow up in everyone's face.
  - failwhaleshark 6y ago
    There are roughly 75 million HCV infections in the world. That translates to a total cure cost of: 75M * $350k = $26.25T There are other ARV treatments available which cost now roughly $50-100k and cure in 3 months. Whereas immunizing everyone against coronaviruses currently costs: 8B * $7 = $56B Clearly, the costs of the HCV cure are predatory and unreasonable because it doesn't lead to eradication and it's inaccessible to the poor and the third-world.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- retrac 6y ago
  Yes, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so. And worst of all, usually just one or two doses. For all the horror HIV has wrought, global spending on vaccine development for HIV has been around $1 billion a year for the last few years. In contrast, the USA federal government spends $3 billion a year for HIV antiviral drugs for low-income Americans. $20,000 per patient per year for life. Unsurprisingly, new antivirals are where most of the research is. It can sound almost like a conspiracy if I put it like that, but it's just the economics incentives. Especially since the developed countries where most of the market for charging a decent markup is, have the smallest market for most new vaccines, while having the largest markets for therapeutics for chronic conditions. Now HIV is genuinely devillish to develop a vaccine for despite our attempts. But vaccines for hepatitis C, gonorrhea, HSV, among others appear to be possible. We almost certainly could develop effective vaccines for these with existing techniques, if someone coughed up the funding. Maybe all the buzz about mRNA vaccines will spur some progress here.
  - hutzlibu 6y ago
    "es, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so" But since the demand is 14 000 000 000 doses, there should still be a little bit of money in it?
    - retrac 6y ago
      Yes, clearly. With COVID-19, there is pretty much guaranteed market for about ten billion doses. Along with direct investment by governments in wealthier countries. Most people, including politicians, want a COVID-19 vaccine real bad. The parent poster was describing the situation with vaccine development in general, to which COVID-19 is quite the exception. A potential hepatitis C vaccine for example has very different economics, as it would not be deployed anywhere nearly as widely or quickly. Consider that, 40 years after hepatitis B immunization became available, the majority of Americans haven't been jabbed with it.
    - kube-system 6y ago
      Yes, but a pandemic only comes around every hundred years or so. Moderna happened to be in the right place at the right time for this one, but delivering vaccines for a pandemic is not much of a solid business plan.
- refurb 6y ago
  Vaccines can be very lucrative. Pfizer has billions in sales for Pentacel.
hcayless 6y ago
The big money’s going to be in cancer treatments. If they can use this to target tumors, they’ll do quite well.
- o-__-o 6y ago
  Bad news, it’s not looking very successful right now. Moderna is making back all the lost revenue with the emergency authorization tho
  - DrAwdeOccarim 6y ago
    Can you share some of the bad news links? I've only seen the positive ones.
justmedep 6y ago
And Biontech since 2008 and CureVac was founded in 2000 (after their initial CEO made a discovery that enabled Biontech + Moderna). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingmar_Hoerr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingmar_Hoerr

Modern a has been working on mRNA since 2010 and mRNA vaccines since 2012. They have the process down pretty solid, but vaccines do not bring in the bacon.

by o-__-o 6y ago

Modern a has been working on mRNA since 2010 and mRNA vaccines since 2012. They have the process down pretty solid, but vaccines do not bring in the bacon.

azernik 6y ago

Now that they've spent a year developing the mass-production methods and infrastructure, it might bring in the bacon! e.g. there's a steady annual market for a flu vaccine for whatever the latest strain is, and being able to get that to market faster than the competition could give them an edge. I just don't think it was every profitable enough for them to put in this enormous capital expenditure.

dylan604 6y ago
When you can have Uncle Sam cover that capex, it makes it even more financially appealing.

hutzlibu 6y ago

" but vaccines do not bring in the bacon." As in, "do not generate enough income"? Really? Now?

azernik 6y ago
Now is a very atypical situation :-P
- technick 6y ago
  You've never been to Florida have you?
  - azernik 6y ago
    Does Florida typically throw billions of dollars at vaccine development?
hadlock 6y ago
Current pricing for mRNA vaccines is something in the $4-7 dollars (that's $7.00 dollars, not $7,000.00 dollars) range. Compare that to one of the Hepatitis C treatments, which costs north of $350,000 by several accounts. Even remdesivir is something like $3000 for a course.
- hutzlibu 6y ago
  "Hepatitis C treatments" We don't really need the same quantities of that, though.
  - mikecoles 6y ago
    https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/data-and-trends/index.html https://www.hhs.gov/hepatitis/learn-about-viral-hepatitis/da... It can be said that hepatitis care is more necessary than covid.
    - hutzlibu 6y ago
      The world is not in lockdown becuse of hepatitis, though.
      - TeMPOraL 6y ago
        Hepatitis isn't airborne, though, so it doesn't have an exponent threatening to blow up in everyone's face.
- failwhaleshark 6y ago
  There are roughly 75 million HCV infections in the world. That translates to a total cure cost of: 75M * $350k = $26.25T There are other ARV treatments available which cost now roughly $50-100k and cure in 3 months. Whereas immunizing everyone against coronaviruses currently costs: 8B * $7 = $56B Clearly, the costs of the HCV cure are predatory and unreasonable because it doesn't lead to eradication and it's inaccessible to the poor and the third-world.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
retrac 6y ago
Yes, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so. And worst of all, usually just one or two doses. For all the horror HIV has wrought, global spending on vaccine development for HIV has been around $1 billion a year for the last few years. In contrast, the USA federal government spends $3 billion a year for HIV antiviral drugs for low-income Americans. $20,000 per patient per year for life. Unsurprisingly, new antivirals are where most of the research is. It can sound almost like a conspiracy if I put it like that, but it's just the economics incentives. Especially since the developed countries where most of the market for charging a decent markup is, have the smallest market for most new vaccines, while having the largest markets for therapeutics for chronic conditions. Now HIV is genuinely devillish to develop a vaccine for despite our attempts. But vaccines for hepatitis C, gonorrhea, HSV, among others appear to be possible. We almost certainly could develop effective vaccines for these with existing techniques, if someone coughed up the funding. Maybe all the buzz about mRNA vaccines will spur some progress here.
- hutzlibu 6y ago
  "es, really. Typical vaccines are like $5 to $200 or so" But since the demand is 14 000 000 000 doses, there should still be a little bit of money in it?
  - retrac 6y ago
    Yes, clearly. With COVID-19, there is pretty much guaranteed market for about ten billion doses. Along with direct investment by governments in wealthier countries. Most people, including politicians, want a COVID-19 vaccine real bad. The parent poster was describing the situation with vaccine development in general, to which COVID-19 is quite the exception. A potential hepatitis C vaccine for example has very different economics, as it would not be deployed anywhere nearly as widely or quickly. Consider that, 40 years after hepatitis B immunization became available, the majority of Americans haven't been jabbed with it.
  - kube-system 6y ago
    Yes, but a pandemic only comes around every hundred years or so. Moderna happened to be in the right place at the right time for this one, but delivering vaccines for a pandemic is not much of a solid business plan.
refurb 6y ago
Vaccines can be very lucrative. Pfizer has billions in sales for Pentacel.

hcayless 6y ago

The big money’s going to be in cancer treatments. If they can use this to target tumors, they’ll do quite well.

o-__-o 6y ago
Bad news, it’s not looking very successful right now. Moderna is making back all the lost revenue with the emergency authorization tho
- DrAwdeOccarim 6y ago
  Can you share some of the bad news links? I've only seen the positive ones.

justmedep 6y ago

And Biontech since 2008 and CureVac was founded in 2000 (after their initial CEO made a discovery that enabled Biontech + Moderna). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingmar_Hoerr https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingmar_Hoerr