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A list of holdings leaves me scratching my head: - JD.com? - Netflix? - Meituan? (Chinese Food Delivery) - John Deere? Either these are some very forward looki

by gvhst 6y ago

A list of holdings leaves me scratching my head: - JD.com? - Netflix? - Meituan? (Chinese Food Delivery) - John Deere? Either these are some very forward looking plays, or there weren't enough public securities to fill a diversified, thematic basket. https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings/ARK_SPACE_EXPLORATION_&_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKX_HOLDINGS.pdf https://ark-funds.com/wp-content/fundsiteliterature/holdings...

TheAdamAndChe 6y ago
I am reading Peter Thiel's book about startups, and he discusses the nature of technological monopolies. It says how most tech monopolies have common attributes: proprietary software, network effects, economies of scale, and a solid brand. It looks to me like those companies have all of that.
- gvhst 6y ago
  Yes, but tech monopolies != Space Exploration
  - MR4D 6y ago
    I google'd it just for fun, but I thought you had made a really good point.... Sadly, and much to my disbelief, you are incorrect: MSFT: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/introducing-azure-orbital-process-satellite-data-at-cloudscale/ https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/introducing-azure-orb... FB: https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-confirms-its-working-on-new-internet-satellite/ https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-confirms-its-working-on... GOOGL: https://earthengine.google.com/ https://earthengine.google.com/ AAPL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/12/20/apple-building-satellite-to-iphone-tech-spacex-launching-42000-satellites-2--2--/?sh=54ba440368a7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/12/20/apple-b... AMZN: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2020/07/31/amazon-is-going-to-add-3000-more-satellites-into-earths-orbit--and-people-are-not-happy/?sh=385a6ed37628 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2020/07/31/a... If I had more time, I'd run down more companies (Like, who even knows what Slack might be planning! )
11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
One of the categories targeted is companies that will benefit from space-focused enterprises. This includes space companies that improve Internet infrastructure. E.g. if SpaceX is successful with Starlink, it will increase the total available market for Netflix and Netflix revenue increases. JD and Meituan can access more customers, though it is as likely to be via a China-raised LEO fleet. John Deere from Internet-connected autonomous combines and more precise weather and crop health analysis from space informing them where and how to service the crops. Seems a little weak-linked to me, and the best I could do to defend this portfolio is that it's taking a super long view. But that is their rationale.
- gvhst 6y ago
  How many of Meituan's customers are internet constrained. Not many would be my guess...
  - justicezyx 6y ago
    No, China has a very good coverage of 4g infrastructure. Need of satellite is very limited, if any. Satellite in China is more useful for disaster recovery and as independent technology itself.
    - 11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
      A strikingly small % of China's land area has 4G service. It's focused on the high-population areas, but at best, it appears to be 10% of the land area[0] 900 Million of China's 1.4 Billion citizens have Internet access. That leaves 36%, or, 500,000,000 people, more than the population of North America, as an untapped Internet market. [0] https://www.nperf.com/en/map/CN/-/14505.China-Unicom/signal/?ll=37.9037550668291&lg=104.0039061382413&zoom=4 https://www.nperf.com/en/map/CN/-/14505.China-Unicom/signal/... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/795193/china-share-of-mobile-internet-users-in-total-online-population/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/795193/china-share-of-mo...
      - justicezyx 6y ago
whoisjuan 6y ago
Someone on Twitter was suggesting that they picked Meituan only because it has a delivery robot called Space-Pod. Lol. Or in other words, they did a Ctrl+F: "space", in the filings of publicly traded companies and they built the index with the ones that had a match for the word. Stupid? Yes. Possible? Absolutely.
btkramer9 6y ago
As far as John Deere goes I think it has to do with the presumed equipment that they could design and send to mars for colonization. There was a conference SpaceX put on a year or two ago with a bunch of companies traditionally un-releated to space but would be in a good positions to start producing needed goods that SpaceX would want to send on the first 100s of Starships. Perhaps other companies here fit that list

by gvhst 6y ago

TheAdamAndChe 6y ago

I am reading Peter Thiel's book about startups, and he discusses the nature of technological monopolies. It says how most tech monopolies have common attributes: proprietary software, network effects, economies of scale, and a solid brand. It looks to me like those companies have all of that.

gvhst 6y ago
Yes, but tech monopolies != Space Exploration
- MR4D 6y ago
  I google'd it just for fun, but I thought you had made a really good point.... Sadly, and much to my disbelief, you are incorrect: MSFT: https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/introducing-azure-orbital-process-satellite-data-at-cloudscale/ https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/introducing-azure-orb... FB: https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-confirms-its-working-on-new-internet-satellite/ https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-confirms-its-working-on... GOOGL: https://earthengine.google.com/ https://earthengine.google.com/ AAPL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/12/20/apple-building-satellite-to-iphone-tech-spacex-launching-42000-satellites-2--2--/?sh=54ba440368a7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/12/20/apple-b... AMZN: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2020/07/31/amazon-is-going-to-add-3000-more-satellites-into-earths-orbit--and-people-are-not-happy/?sh=385a6ed37628 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2020/07/31/a... If I had more time, I'd run down more companies (Like, who even knows what Slack might be planning! )

11thEarlOfMar 6y ago

One of the categories targeted is companies that will benefit from space-focused enterprises. This includes space companies that improve Internet infrastructure. E.g. if SpaceX is successful with Starlink, it will increase the total available market for Netflix and Netflix revenue increases. JD and Meituan can access more customers, though it is as likely to be via a China-raised LEO fleet. John Deere from Internet-connected autonomous combines and more precise weather and crop health analysis from space informing them where and how to service the crops. Seems a little weak-linked to me, and the best I could do to defend this portfolio is that it's taking a super long view. But that is their rationale.

gvhst 6y ago
How many of Meituan's customers are internet constrained. Not many would be my guess...
- justicezyx 6y ago
  No, China has a very good coverage of 4g infrastructure. Need of satellite is very limited, if any. Satellite in China is more useful for disaster recovery and as independent technology itself.
  - 11thEarlOfMar 6y ago
    A strikingly small % of China's land area has 4G service. It's focused on the high-population areas, but at best, it appears to be 10% of the land area[0] 900 Million of China's 1.4 Billion citizens have Internet access. That leaves 36%, or, 500,000,000 people, more than the population of North America, as an untapped Internet market. [0] https://www.nperf.com/en/map/CN/-/14505.China-Unicom/signal/?ll=37.9037550668291&lg=104.0039061382413&zoom=4 https://www.nperf.com/en/map/CN/-/14505.China-Unicom/signal/... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/795193/china-share-of-mobile-internet-users-in-total-online-population/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/795193/china-share-of-mo...
    - justicezyx 6y ago

whoisjuan 6y ago

Someone on Twitter was suggesting that they picked Meituan only because it has a delivery robot called Space-Pod. Lol. Or in other words, they did a Ctrl+F: "space", in the filings of publicly traded companies and they built the index with the ones that had a match for the word. Stupid? Yes. Possible? Absolutely.

btkramer9 6y ago

As far as John Deere goes I think it has to do with the presumed equipment that they could design and send to mars for colonization. There was a conference SpaceX put on a year or two ago with a bunch of companies traditionally un-releated to space but would be in a good positions to start producing needed goods that SpaceX would want to send on the first 100s of Starships. Perhaps other companies here fit that list