4 ms·

I would image the opposite tbh, that $9b of delayed goods per day is not lost, it's just delayed. Most of that goods, unless they are perishable goods, will sel

by skullx 6y ago

I would image the opposite tbh, that $9b of delayed goods per day is not lost, it's just delayed. Most of that goods, unless they are perishable goods, will sell like normal, just a bit later. There is obviously a loss here on increased costs and loss of sell opportunities due to the delay, but that figures are mega inflated IMO.

formerly_proven 6y ago
Also... ships are slow. The voyage from the Suez canal to Rotterdam or Hamburg is at least six days, so there was quite some time to prepare for a gap in supply.
- craftinator 6y ago
  Well, this is a supply delay in hundreds of equally sized or larger ships. This is a delay in a majority of the global shipping industry of at LEAST a week, and shipping scheduling will be thrown off for months by this. https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/mf705v/ships_waiting_for_the_suez_canal_to_open/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/mf705... https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/meopv9/satellite_view_of_the_ships_lining_up_at_the_suez/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/meopv9/s... That is a LOT of cargo that's suddenly going to arrive 2 or 3 times later than expected. Huge economic impact. I really don't understand why people on HN are pushing so hard against the idea that this is just an economic blip. Is there anyone involved in the industry that can chime in?
craftinator 6y ago
According to this paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the average loss of value per day of delay from the cargo on these ships is between 0.6 and 2.2 percent [1]. According to other research I've seen, somewhere between 12% and 30% of daily global sea trade (the 30% figure may be out large cargo freighters specifically, not sure) goes through the Suez Canal. Anyone want to do the math? 1) https://www.nber.org/digest/jun12/time-trade-barrier https://www.nber.org/digest/jun12/time-trade-barrier

by skullx 6y ago

formerly_proven 6y ago

Also... ships are slow. The voyage from the Suez canal to Rotterdam or Hamburg is at least six days, so there was quite some time to prepare for a gap in supply.

craftinator 6y ago
Well, this is a supply delay in hundreds of equally sized or larger ships. This is a delay in a majority of the global shipping industry of at LEAST a week, and shipping scheduling will be thrown off for months by this. https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/mf705v/ships_waiting_for_the_suez_canal_to_open/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/mf705... https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/meopv9/satellite_view_of_the_ships_lining_up_at_the_suez/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingasfuck/comments/meopv9/s... That is a LOT of cargo that's suddenly going to arrive 2 or 3 times later than expected. Huge economic impact. I really don't understand why people on HN are pushing so hard against the idea that this is just an economic blip. Is there anyone involved in the industry that can chime in?

craftinator 6y ago

According to this paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the average loss of value per day of delay from the cargo on these ships is between 0.6 and 2.2 percent [1]. According to other research I've seen, somewhere between 12% and 30% of daily global sea trade (the 30% figure may be out large cargo freighters specifically, not sure) goes through the Suez Canal. Anyone want to do the math? 1) https://www.nber.org/digest/jun12/time-trade-barrier https://www.nber.org/digest/jun12/time-trade-barrier