I've done a lot of research/consulting in prediction markets. I'm not totally surprised that in theory bluffing is possible. I've seen cases of market manipul

I've done a lot of research/consulting in prediction markets. I'm not totally surprised that in theory bluffing is possible. I've seen cases of market manipulation in my research. But I think everyone should look at the results in a different light: Are they correct?? If the results (either probabilistic results or index results) are accurate, then if there are minor cases of manipulation who cares? I don't believe that prediction markets are that different than any other marketplace with minor concerns of manipulation. As for accuracy, I've written about that here: http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-prediction-market-results-on-elections/ http://blog.mercury-rac.com/2008/01/25/how-to-interpret-pred... (most people, and virtually all journalists, just don't get the math when it comes to probabilities.)