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80/20 feels outdated based on the last 10-15 years. It feels like it should be 70/30 or even 60/40. Worse things keep happening and we just keep not suffering t
by vsareto 6y ago
80/20 feels outdated based on the last 10-15 years. It feels like it should be 70/30 or even 60/40. Worse things keep happening and we just keep not suffering the doomsday, societal-collapsing scenarios. We keep getting new technology that saves us time and gives us information. We get access to more diverse opportunities. And new products come along (cryptocurrency, for better or worse) to supplement the old things, so we have way more options.
Your buddy's job at the bank will likely be safe, but consider for some markets that it doesn't really matter because there might always be another job around the corner. Software developers in particular should not be doing 80/20 because of this, since the jobs currently act as a really good safety net. That job market has only experienced one black swan event (2001) and rebounded to even higher levels.
For the US, if democrats get off their ass and start pushing change like they promised, we'll have even better safety nets. Safe tactics will become wasteful tactics because 1) we're historically always recovering, and 2) the downside always seems scarier than the upside. You can spend too much on safety.
- lotsofpulp 6y ago> if democrats get off their ass and start pushing change like they promised, we'll have even better safety nets. The Democrats have not had sufficient numbers in the last 20 years in the Senate to accomplish this outside of 2009 and 2010, when they got ACA passed, and unless DC/Puerto Rico get added and a few states go from Repub Senators to Dem, I don’t see it happening in next 10 years either.
- AstralStorm 6y agoThat is sort of correct but way too short term thinking. Latest period between serious wars and economic disruptions such as fall of USSR was around 40 years ago. Various banks failed three times in the meantime, besides that big event. Banking jobs have not recovered, they have been consolidated and automated away. Talking anything about black swans in computer programming jobs is premature. They're too new to even hit one major upheaval, in the meantime having faced dotcom boom and bust...