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Nobody ever dismissed it. It has been a viable theory since the beginning. What was dangerous was pointing the finger at China and saying “this is all their fau

Nobody ever dismissed it. It has been a viable theory since the beginning. What was dangerous was pointing the finger at China and saying “this is all their fault!” without any evidence. There STILL is not evidence, but that doesn’t mean it should not be investigated as a source. Dismissing the theory outright has never and will never be an option. I don’t like that this is what the team decided to do, and I suspect there is a lot of tension in this investigation.

incrudible 6y ago
> Nobody ever dismissed it. You must've missed out on previous HN discussions. I remember these guys in particular being paraded around: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQplOe8-LE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQplOe8-LE I did find their tone quite dismissive, and the verdict in the title leaves little room for interpretation. > What was dangerous was pointing the finger at China and saying “this is all their fault!” without any evidence. True, but that's irrelevant to the plausibility of the hypothesis. > There STILL is not evidence, but that doesn’t mean it should not be investigated as a source. Arguably, it's still dangerous to do exactly that.
- beowulfey 6y ago
  I think a lot of the confusion, based on the responses to my comment, is separating the idea that the virus was CREATED in a lab from it being accidentally released from the lab. The former implies intent and carries a lot of secondary implications about bioweapons and political maneuverings. It is a hefty claim. The latter is simpler—it is reasonable to think a lab that maintains and studies viruses similar to Covid-19 accidentally allowed one to be released. It does not imply an intent to misuse the virus. I have not watched the video, I’m sorry. I’ll try and get to it later.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    > The former implies intent... It doesn't imply intent to use as a bioweapon, much less release it in their own population. The hypothesis that this was a gain-of-function experiment that went awry due to lax security still does put a lot of pressure on Chinese authorities, on top of the poor handling at the beginning of the outbreak.
dataflow 6y ago
> Nobody ever dismissed it There was at least one paper calling it "natural selection", and some folks who read it agreed that it ruled out laboratory accidents: "The high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246597925288816640 https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246597925288816640 https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-china-completely-unfounded-scientists-say-1498308 https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-chi...
- beowulfey 6y ago
  That is not addressing the same claim though. That was refuting the theory that people were spreading about it being genetically engineered to be infectious towards humans.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    > ...it being genetically engineered to be infectious towards humans That's literally what a gain-of-function experiment is. These are done to study how viruses interact with humans so that we can deal with them better. There's nothing sinister about it, such experiments are happening all over the world and they did happen in Wuhan.
    - cheaprentalyeti 6y ago
      Maybe it's time for us to realize that some "gain of function" research can be weaponized and made sinister.
  - dataflow 6y ago
    > That is not addressing the same claim though. Did you just reply to the sentence I quoted or did you click the links? The tweets are very obviously not limited to that: https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246598376377831425 https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246598376377831425 And honestly, it's hard to go from "this happened via natural selection" to "nobody dismissed this coming from a lab". Even if it's technically possible, surely you can understand why readers' message from this is not "this could have come from a lab".
graeme 6y ago
They absolutely did. See this NYT article. Ben Thompson of Stratechery discussed it in an excellent article linked below. Key excerpt from the NYT piece. Doesn’t get more official than that: > Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republicans have a favorable view of QAnon, according to a recent YouGov poll. According to other polls, more than 70 percent of Republicans believe Mr. Trump legitimately won the election, and 40 percent of Americans — including plenty of Democrats — believe the baseless theory that COVID-19 was manufactured in a Chinese lab. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-crisis-misinformation.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... https://stratechery.com/2021/mistakes-memes-and-foreign-ground-coronavirus-context-the-new-york-times-and-the-china-model/ https://stratechery.com/2021/mistakes-memes-and-foreign-grou...
- dataflow 6y ago
  The NPR article that your NYT article links to is more direct about this; I'll link to it and quote it here directly: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/951095644 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/951095644 > The poll gave people a sort of test to see if they could spot misinformation like the coronavirus was created in a lab or that voter fraud helped Joe Biden win the 2020 election. > 40% of poll respondents believe one of the biggest conspiracy theories that's out there about the virus, that it was made in a lab in China. There is no evidence for this. And scientists say that the virus was transmitted to humans from another species. But I talked to people all over the country who responded to our poll and they still believe this.
- beowulfey 6y ago
  That is addressing the theory that the virus was manufactured in a lab, i.e with the intent to release. Not the idea that it was released accidentally. It is very different.
  - incrudible 6y ago
    It doesn't say anything about "intent". The hypothesis that the virus was modified in a gain-of-function experiment in Wuhan is plausible.

incrudible 6y ago

> Nobody ever dismissed it. You must've missed out on previous HN discussions. I remember these guys in particular being paraded around: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQplOe8-LE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBQplOe8-LE I did find their tone quite dismissive, and the verdict in the title leaves little room for interpretation. > What was dangerous was pointing the finger at China and saying “this is all their fault!” without any evidence. True, but that's irrelevant to the plausibility of the hypothesis. > There STILL is not evidence, but that doesn’t mean it should not be investigated as a source. Arguably, it's still dangerous to do exactly that.

beowulfey 6y ago
I think a lot of the confusion, based on the responses to my comment, is separating the idea that the virus was CREATED in a lab from it being accidentally released from the lab. The former implies intent and carries a lot of secondary implications about bioweapons and political maneuverings. It is a hefty claim. The latter is simpler—it is reasonable to think a lab that maintains and studies viruses similar to Covid-19 accidentally allowed one to be released. It does not imply an intent to misuse the virus. I have not watched the video, I’m sorry. I’ll try and get to it later.
- incrudible 6y ago
  > The former implies intent... It doesn't imply intent to use as a bioweapon, much less release it in their own population. The hypothesis that this was a gain-of-function experiment that went awry due to lax security still does put a lot of pressure on Chinese authorities, on top of the poor handling at the beginning of the outbreak.

dataflow 6y ago

> Nobody ever dismissed it There was at least one paper calling it "natural selection", and some folks who read it agreed that it ruled out laboratory accidents: "The high-affinity binding of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to human ACE2 is most likely the result of natural selection on a human or human-like ACE2 that permits another optimal binding solution to arise. This is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246597925288816640 https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246597925288816640 https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-china-completely-unfounded-scientists-say-1498308 https://www.newsweek.com/claim-that-coronavirus-came-lab-chi...

beowulfey 6y ago
That is not addressing the same claim though. That was refuting the theory that people were spreading about it being genetically engineered to be infectious towards humans.
- incrudible 6y ago
  > ...it being genetically engineered to be infectious towards humans That's literally what a gain-of-function experiment is. These are done to study how viruses interact with humans so that we can deal with them better. There's nothing sinister about it, such experiments are happening all over the world and they did happen in Wuhan.
  - cheaprentalyeti 6y ago
    Maybe it's time for us to realize that some "gain of function" research can be weaponized and made sinister.
- dataflow 6y ago
  > That is not addressing the same claim though. Did you just reply to the sentence I quoted or did you click the links? The tweets are very obviously not limited to that: https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246598376377831425 https://twitter.com/ehundman/status/1246598376377831425 And honestly, it's hard to go from "this happened via natural selection" to "nobody dismissed this coming from a lab". Even if it's technically possible, surely you can understand why readers' message from this is not "this could have come from a lab".

graeme 6y ago

They absolutely did. See this NYT article. Ben Thompson of Stratechery discussed it in an excellent article linked below. Key excerpt from the NYT piece. Doesn’t get more official than that: > Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republicans have a favorable view of QAnon, according to a recent YouGov poll. According to other polls, more than 70 percent of Republicans believe Mr. Trump legitimately won the election, and 40 percent of Americans — including plenty of Democrats — believe the baseless theory that COVID-19 was manufactured in a Chinese lab. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-crisis-misinformation.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... https://stratechery.com/2021/mistakes-memes-and-foreign-ground-coronavirus-context-the-new-york-times-and-the-china-model/ https://stratechery.com/2021/mistakes-memes-and-foreign-grou...

dataflow 6y ago
The NPR article that your NYT article links to is more direct about this; I'll link to it and quote it here directly: https://www.npr.org/transcripts/951095644 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/951095644 > The poll gave people a sort of test to see if they could spot misinformation like the coronavirus was created in a lab or that voter fraud helped Joe Biden win the 2020 election. > 40% of poll respondents believe one of the biggest conspiracy theories that's out there about the virus, that it was made in a lab in China. There is no evidence for this. And scientists say that the virus was transmitted to humans from another species. But I talked to people all over the country who responded to our poll and they still believe this.
beowulfey 6y ago
That is addressing the theory that the virus was manufactured in a lab, i.e with the intent to release. Not the idea that it was released accidentally. It is very different.
- incrudible 6y ago
  It doesn't say anything about "intent". The hypothesis that the virus was modified in a gain-of-function experiment in Wuhan is plausible.