4 ms·

I am curious to hear some estimates from HN readers from the UK about whether they think that the UK might rejoin the EU in a couple of years. Is that realistic

• toyg 6y ago
  No. In a couple of decades, maybe; but still very unlikely (if anything because the EU is now much stricter on criteria for new entrants, and this is only going to increase over time). I’d say chances are 90% that the UK will never re-join. Uk gov might find some hack to get into a Norway-shaped position, but full membership is gone for good.
• fakedang 6y ago
  I'd wager within another 20-40 years, although by then it might be a different world altogether.
• string 6y ago
  I think that is extremely unlikely. Another referendum anytime soon would be a political nightmare for both Labour and the Tories, it's such a contentious issue that they're both better off avoiding it. The only parties seriously advocating for rejoining are either full of nutters (Greens, unfortunately) or increasingly losing touch with reality to the point of irrelevance (Lib Dems). Things may change a lot over the next few years, but I suspect people will become increasingly apathetic towards the issue as time passes and people realise Brexit isn't exactly the apocalypse that was described by most of the media here. I would bet good money that before 2016, ~90% of people in the UK—remainers and leavers both—couldn't have named a single MEP other than Farage. I suspect the vast majority will revert to their pre-referendum state of political indifference. Rejoining would be immensely complicated, people will just not have the appetite for it.