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> ...you might pretend to be this bully's friend, feed them a different idea, convince them that it's their idea... I thought I'd read somewhere (but can't fin

> ...you might pretend to be this bully's friend, feed them a different idea, convince them that it's their idea... I thought I'd read somewhere (but can't find the source now) that around the Cold War or thereabouts, trade with China was seen as a way of "exporting capitalism" to undermine support for communism there. If so, that... hasn't worked. I'm not convinced the west actually has any leverage on China. They own the US's debt, they have access to rare earth metals necessary for computer manufacture, and they're the backbone of worldwide manufacturing. Any pressure applied (trade sanctions?) will just come back the other direction (oh no, actually we need that trade to maintain our way of life).

dnautics 6y ago
> They own the US's debt Currently the world leader in US debt holding is not china, but japan. > actually we need that trade to maintain our way of life Currently the number 1 trading partner with the US is Mexico, not china. The US economy is overwhelmingly domestic, too with something like 10% via foreign trade. And china's labor costs no longer make it competitive in terms of "making the average us resident's prices low". The place that will get screwed is europe, which DOES do a ton of trade with China, as we will see in the upcoming months with the closure of the suez (most us trade does not use the suez, only about 10% of oil from saudia arabia, and most us oil production has shifted to domestic, IIRC it's like 5% foreign or something like that)
ohazi 6y ago
> If so, that... hasn't worked. Yeah, I think the "pretend you're on their side" strategy might work once or twice before they're onto you, so if you can't get them permanently out of the way by then, you're finished. > I'm not convinced the west actually has any leverage on China. Unfortunately, I think I agree. I'm not convinced the debt thing matters very much, but as things stand, we are hosed without China's manufacturing base, and double plus hosed if TSMC is captured or destroyed as a result of a Taiwan attack.
NicoJuicy 6y ago
China has been chosen as the manufacturer of the western world. While it's a big thing they need, I'm not convinced that it is impossible to shift a lot of that influence to India. Who would probably make a better partner ( not sure). Other than that, I don't see much options.
plorkyeran 6y ago
> I thought I'd read somewhere (but can't find the source now) that around the Cold War or thereabouts, trade with China was seen as a way of "exporting capitalism" to undermine support for communism there. If so, that... hasn't worked. Hasn't it? It has not succeeded in making China an ally, but modern China is communist in name only.

dnautics 6y ago

> They own the US's debt Currently the world leader in US debt holding is not china, but japan. > actually we need that trade to maintain our way of life Currently the number 1 trading partner with the US is Mexico, not china. The US economy is overwhelmingly domestic, too with something like 10% via foreign trade. And china's labor costs no longer make it competitive in terms of "making the average us resident's prices low". The place that will get screwed is europe, which DOES do a ton of trade with China, as we will see in the upcoming months with the closure of the suez (most us trade does not use the suez, only about 10% of oil from saudia arabia, and most us oil production has shifted to domestic, IIRC it's like 5% foreign or something like that)

ohazi 6y ago

> If so, that... hasn't worked. Yeah, I think the "pretend you're on their side" strategy might work once or twice before they're onto you, so if you can't get them permanently out of the way by then, you're finished. > I'm not convinced the west actually has any leverage on China. Unfortunately, I think I agree. I'm not convinced the debt thing matters very much, but as things stand, we are hosed without China's manufacturing base, and double plus hosed if TSMC is captured or destroyed as a result of a Taiwan attack.

NicoJuicy 6y ago

China has been chosen as the manufacturer of the western world. While it's a big thing they need, I'm not convinced that it is impossible to shift a lot of that influence to India. Who would probably make a better partner ( not sure). Other than that, I don't see much options.

plorkyeran 6y ago

> I thought I'd read somewhere (but can't find the source now) that around the Cold War or thereabouts, trade with China was seen as a way of "exporting capitalism" to undermine support for communism there. If so, that... hasn't worked. Hasn't it? It has not succeeded in making China an ally, but modern China is communist in name only.