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"An invasion of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, would force the U.S. to decide whether to go to war with China to defend an implicit ally."

• PureParadigm 6y ago
  Currently the US is not choosing either of these because they both have downsides. In (1), this may embolden Taiwan to take risky and provocative actions such as declaring themselves an independent country. (2) is obviously not in US interests. Instead, the current US position is strategic ambiguity. It is clear there is probably a line somewhere after which the US will intervene, but it is not clear to either side where this is. The goal is that this will deter both sides from changing the status quo, but as China becomes increasingly aggressive it may be necessary for the US to make its position more explicit.
  • ddevault 6y ago
    Taiwan already officially considers itself an independent country, and maintains a large, sophisticated military for the purpose of defending this status.
    • PureParadigm 6y ago
      What I meant is declare themselves independent from mainland China (dropping the claims on the mainland). This would provoke China by violating the Anti-Secession Law [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law
      • beloch 6y ago
        Article 8 is a doozy. I was ignorant of it. From the sounds of it, Taiwan doesn't want to declare its independence nor signal there is no hope of peaceful reunification with mainland China because either of these would trigger an attack mandated by PRC law. It really does seem as though Taiwan is between a rock and a hard place here. To gain formal status as a country and enter formal mutual defence treaties, they'd have to trigger a Chinese attack. If they don't have formal treaties, they could be absorbed at any time without anyone doing anything. It's either certain attack or risk an attack with no allies. Talk about being held hostage. There should be more international pressure on the PRC to eliminate Article 8.
        • dirtyid 6y ago
          PRC/ROC dynamic is formally an unfinished civil war, it's diplomatically a domestic issue between two governments representing one China, where recognition is mutually exclusive. The current peace / détente is held together by a bunch of incongruous agreements, i.e. article 8 & 92 consensus between PRC/ROC, three communiqués between PRC/US, TW relations act between ROC/US to make the current arrangement somewhat workable. I don't think even "peaceful" legal options exist at UN anymore, article 18 can add new members with 2/3 vote, but resolution 2758 that changed UN recognition from ROC to PRC precludes Taiwanese politicians from joining as they are technically representatives of a Chinese province. There would need to be overhaul of UN, modern IR and Westphalian sovereignty system for TW to exist as a separate country from PRC which isn't likely to happen with PRC influence. Formal TW recognition (and derecognition of PRC) by outside parties still does not change civil war dynamic which can't be ended unilaterally by one party or outside parties. There's no way out but to fight and win for TW, and win sufficiently to be able to dictate terms to PRC and have PRC surrender agreed formally so as to enable the creation two separate sovereign states. Even then it doesn't change underlying PRC desire to regain Taiwan, whether that's resumption of civil war, via illegal war, or declaration of legal war. TW independence is a military problem, I think people are deluding themselves if they belief there's a political two country solution, especially by third parties.
          • logotype 6y ago
            Warning: account affiliated with the CCP.
    • shp0ngle 6y ago
      Not really. Taiwan officially calls itself "Republic of China" and awkwardly claims that they actually own China mainland. (Since the time of Chiang Kai Shek.) This position is (also awkwardly) preferable to People's Republic of China, since they see it as better negotiating position for reunification, rather than Taiwan independence.