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Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the wor

Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. So the 2020s is the pivotal decade as China nears the height of its power. The CCP is aware of this and knows that if they are ever going to take Taiwan, it would ideally be this decade. Politically, it will also need a victory as the Chinese economy inevitably slows down due to the demographic collapse. I fear that if the CCP manages to take Kinmen island without a devastating US response then it will be the Austria moment of our century. Obviously, a strong US response would be damaging to both countries, but the only way to deter an attack on Taiwan is to make the cost of attacking so high for the CCP that it is not worth it. While it will be difficult to justify in the short term, the US must push back strongly when China is "testing the waters" or else it will only escalate from there. If there is only a weak US response, it will embolden the CCP to continue pushing the boundaries until they do something that requires either full scale war or surrender (such as invasion of Taiwan main island).

everybodyknows 6y ago
> Austria moment Meaning the Anschluss: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss
hilbertseries 6y ago
The solution is simple, give Taiwan nukes.
- leereeves 6y ago
  I think Taiwan, one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world, could make their own nukes if they wanted them.
  - detaro 6y ago
    Taiwan did have a nuke program until the 80s(?). Of course starting to finalize a nuke program next to a nuclear power that doesn't like you sounds like a surefire way of forcing a decision now if you get caught.
  - hilbertseries 6y ago
    China would intervene if they started a nuclear program. I was mostly being facetious. But it would be rather satisfying after China has spent the past few decades propping up North Korea and letting them develop nuclear weapons. If Taiwan all of a sudden was a nuclear power, that would pose a serious threat to China.
- boruto 6y ago
  That sounds like a really bad idea.
- mlindner 6y ago
  Do you remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? As that's exactly the Cuban Missile Crisis. I think giving Taiwan nukes would force them to invade rather than risk being attacked with nukes.
  - nuller 6y ago
    Little known face is that Denmark had access to nukes during the cold war. They were not per se on Danish territory, but could be "collected" and deployed at very short notice.
justicezyx 6y ago
LMAO HN China expert at it again, without even personally visit China for once in their lifetime! > Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. Population growth is slowing down, but it's still far higher than any other developed nations. Population growth slow down does not translate to slowing catch up of China's economy, military, and political power. US has less than 4mm new born, EU has less than 5mm. China has 10mm in 2020. And not mentioning Chinese new born are generally getting better education and more useful education because of the effective management and control by the government. > Obviously, a strong US response would be damaging to both countries, but the only way to deter an attack on Taiwan is to make the cost of attacking so high for the CCP that it is not worth it. A strong US operation should be fostering the peaceful transition of Taiwan into the one China system and ensure the long term peace and prosper of the region. It's not about adopting one system or another, it's about the people's well-being. If the democracy works best, China should adopt it ad well. Show the Chinese people that there has been example of American democracy lifted a large nation out of poverty. Not some national capitalism. Oh, there has no such example of prosper in so many experiments of American democracy?! Sorry, then I suppose it should be the better system prevail?
twelve40 6y ago
They probably will have demographic problems, but a collapse this decade seems a bit of an aggressive schedule. Pulling up some numbers here (don't know much about the subject): "In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will become 39 percent of the total population. At that time, its dependency ratio will rise to 69.7%" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China Assuming this is referring to the total dependency ratio, China in 2050 is expected to be exactly where Japan is today (69%), and Japan hasn't collapsed yet.
- plorkyeran 6y ago
  Relative to where it was in the 80s, Japan has collapsed. It has gone from over half of the United States' GDP to under a quarter. It's still doing well because when you start out in that strong of a position there's a lot of room to fall and still be healthy. If China follows the same arc as Japan did, China of 2050 will have significantly less influence on the world than China has today.

everybodyknows 6y ago

> Austria moment Meaning the Anschluss: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anschluss

hilbertseries 6y ago

The solution is simple, give Taiwan nukes.

leereeves 6y ago
I think Taiwan, one of the most technologically advanced nations in the world, could make their own nukes if they wanted them.
- detaro 6y ago
  Taiwan did have a nuke program until the 80s(?). Of course starting to finalize a nuke program next to a nuclear power that doesn't like you sounds like a surefire way of forcing a decision now if you get caught.
- hilbertseries 6y ago
  China would intervene if they started a nuclear program. I was mostly being facetious. But it would be rather satisfying after China has spent the past few decades propping up North Korea and letting them develop nuclear weapons. If Taiwan all of a sudden was a nuclear power, that would pose a serious threat to China.
boruto 6y ago
That sounds like a really bad idea.
mlindner 6y ago
Do you remember the Cuban Missile Crisis? As that's exactly the Cuban Missile Crisis. I think giving Taiwan nukes would force them to invade rather than risk being attacked with nukes.
- nuller 6y ago
  Little known face is that Denmark had access to nukes during the cold war. They were not per se on Danish territory, but could be "collected" and deployed at very short notice.

justicezyx 6y ago

LMAO HN China expert at it again, without even personally visit China for once in their lifetime! > Due to the one child policy, China is going to experience a demographic collapse this decade as more people retire than are available to replace them in the workforce. Population growth is slowing down, but it's still far higher than any other developed nations. Population growth slow down does not translate to slowing catch up of China's economy, military, and political power. US has less than 4mm new born, EU has less than 5mm. China has 10mm in 2020. And not mentioning Chinese new born are generally getting better education and more useful education because of the effective management and control by the government. > Obviously, a strong US response would be damaging to both countries, but the only way to deter an attack on Taiwan is to make the cost of attacking so high for the CCP that it is not worth it. A strong US operation should be fostering the peaceful transition of Taiwan into the one China system and ensure the long term peace and prosper of the region. It's not about adopting one system or another, it's about the people's well-being. If the democracy works best, China should adopt it ad well. Show the Chinese people that there has been example of American democracy lifted a large nation out of poverty. Not some national capitalism. Oh, there has no such example of prosper in so many experiments of American democracy?! Sorry, then I suppose it should be the better system prevail?

twelve40 6y ago

They probably will have demographic problems, but a collapse this decade seems a bit of an aggressive schedule. Pulling up some numbers here (don't know much about the subject): "In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will become 39 percent of the total population. At that time, its dependency ratio will rise to 69.7%" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China Assuming this is referring to the total dependency ratio, China in 2050 is expected to be exactly where Japan is today (69%), and Japan hasn't collapsed yet.

plorkyeran 6y ago
Relative to where it was in the 80s, Japan has collapsed. It has gone from over half of the United States' GDP to under a quarter. It's still doing well because when you start out in that strong of a position there's a lot of room to fall and still be healthy. If China follows the same arc as Japan did, China of 2050 will have significantly less influence on the world than China has today.