4 ms·

There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from C

There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.

lmilcin 6y ago
Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
- dfjgkl43 6y ago
  If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
  - FpUser 6y ago
    Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.
    - kelnos 6y ago
      I think your guess is pretty likely. It would be very hard for the US to get into a direct shooting war with China, especially over an island that is 100km off the coast of mainland China. Strategically it just seems like an impossible task to keep Taiwan out of China's hands if that's what China decided to do. More likely the US (and West) would attempt to punish China economically for its behavior, though I have a hard time believing that would work either. Even if an agreement is later reached and sanctions lifted, I doubt Taiwanese independence would be a part of that. Unless there is a huge shift in sentiment toward Taiwan in China's leadership, I am really afraid that it's inevitable that Taiwan ends up being taken by force at some point in the not-too-distant future.
  - gggmaster 6y ago
    Do you really think those outdated weapons can do them any harm? They are just used to show an attitude.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  Not recognizing Taiwan makes a lot of sense when you wish not to cause an escalation that could lead to an invasion of Taiwan, this is why Taiwan itself has never declared independence, something most people forget.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    There are people in Taiwan who agree with the "one China" policy, and claim that the government of Taiwan is the ruler of that one China. Declaring independence means renouncing their claim on the rest of China. Now, in the real world, that claim plus six bucks will get you a latte at Starbucks. But politically, letting go of it might cost more than any political party is willing to pay. Thus both sides of the straights cling to the "one China" fiction.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      Yes there are, however even if there weren’t any and today the majority would likely support independence the reality is that the threat from China due to such a declaration is a far greater factor in why Taiwan still maintains the one China policy.
    - kelnos 6y ago
      I think your information is a bit out of date; the party currently in power in Taiwan (the DPP, which has controlled the presidency and legislative branch since 2016) is pro-independence, and the people are strongly not in favor of reunification. A quick look at Wikipedia suggests that (as of 2019), about 49% of citizens supported independence (though 21% believes that now is not the time due to the political climate), with 31% supporting the status quo. Only 10.3% outright support reunification. In 2020, support for independence increased, to 54%, though support for reunification also increased to 12.5%. I think it's pretty safe to say that an overwhelming majority of people in Taiwan do not actively want reunification with China. The DPP has never held that position, and the KMT dropping it would surely splinter their supporters[0], though possibly not a majority of them. Obviously on the PRC side of the equation, allowing Taiwan its independence is a non-starter. [0] Anecdotally, it does seem that KMT support skews older, so I expect new and future generations to continue to lean more toward independence.

lmilcin 6y ago

Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.

dfjgkl43 6y ago
If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
- FpUser 6y ago
  Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.
  - kelnos 6y ago
    I think your guess is pretty likely. It would be very hard for the US to get into a direct shooting war with China, especially over an island that is 100km off the coast of mainland China. Strategically it just seems like an impossible task to keep Taiwan out of China's hands if that's what China decided to do. More likely the US (and West) would attempt to punish China economically for its behavior, though I have a hard time believing that would work either. Even if an agreement is later reached and sanctions lifted, I doubt Taiwanese independence would be a part of that. Unless there is a huge shift in sentiment toward Taiwan in China's leadership, I am really afraid that it's inevitable that Taiwan ends up being taken by force at some point in the not-too-distant future.
- gggmaster 6y ago
  Do you really think those outdated weapons can do them any harm? They are just used to show an attitude.
dogma1138 6y ago
Not recognizing Taiwan makes a lot of sense when you wish not to cause an escalation that could lead to an invasion of Taiwan, this is why Taiwan itself has never declared independence, something most people forget.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  There are people in Taiwan who agree with the "one China" policy, and claim that the government of Taiwan is the ruler of that one China. Declaring independence means renouncing their claim on the rest of China. Now, in the real world, that claim plus six bucks will get you a latte at Starbucks. But politically, letting go of it might cost more than any political party is willing to pay. Thus both sides of the straights cling to the "one China" fiction.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    Yes there are, however even if there weren’t any and today the majority would likely support independence the reality is that the threat from China due to such a declaration is a far greater factor in why Taiwan still maintains the one China policy.
  - kelnos 6y ago
    I think your information is a bit out of date; the party currently in power in Taiwan (the DPP, which has controlled the presidency and legislative branch since 2016) is pro-independence, and the people are strongly not in favor of reunification. A quick look at Wikipedia suggests that (as of 2019), about 49% of citizens supported independence (though 21% believes that now is not the time due to the political climate), with 31% supporting the status quo. Only 10.3% outright support reunification. In 2020, support for independence increased, to 54%, though support for reunification also increased to 12.5%. I think it's pretty safe to say that an overwhelming majority of people in Taiwan do not actively want reunification with China. The DPP has never held that position, and the KMT dropping it would surely splinter their supporters[0], though possibly not a majority of them. Obviously on the PRC side of the equation, allowing Taiwan its independence is a non-starter. [0] Anecdotally, it does seem that KMT support skews older, so I expect new and future generations to continue to lean more toward independence.