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Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest count

Russia took Crimea even though it was recognized as territory of Ukraine. No large power recognizes Taiwan as sovereign country, not even US. The largest country that recognizes Taiwan is Guatemala. I don't see how it is out of the question that China just sails to Taiwan and takes it while everybody else stands and watches.

vehementi 6y ago
There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
  - dfjgkl43 6y ago
    If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
    - FpUser 6y ago
      Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.
      - kelnos 6y ago
        I think your guess is pretty likely. It would be very hard for the US to get into a direct shooting war with China, especially over an island that is 100km off the coast of mainland China. Strategically it just seems like an impossible task to keep Taiwan out of China's hands if that's what China decided to do. More likely the US (and West) would attempt to punish China economically for its behavior, though I have a hard time believing that would work either. Even if an agreement is later reached and sanctions lifted, I doubt Taiwanese independence would be a part of that. Unless there is a huge shift in sentiment toward Taiwan in China's leadership, I am really afraid that it's inevitable that Taiwan ends up being taken by force at some point in the not-too-distant future.
    - gggmaster 6y ago
      Do you really think those outdated weapons can do them any harm? They are just used to show an attitude.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    Not recognizing Taiwan makes a lot of sense when you wish not to cause an escalation that could lead to an invasion of Taiwan, this is why Taiwan itself has never declared independence, something most people forget.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      There are people in Taiwan who agree with the "one China" policy, and claim that the government of Taiwan is the ruler of that one China. Declaring independence means renouncing their claim on the rest of China. Now, in the real world, that claim plus six bucks will get you a latte at Starbucks. But politically, letting go of it might cost more than any political party is willing to pay. Thus both sides of the straights cling to the "one China" fiction.
      - dogma1138 6y ago
        Yes there are, however even if there weren’t any and today the majority would likely support independence the reality is that the threat from China due to such a declaration is a far greater factor in why Taiwan still maintains the one China policy.
      - kelnos 6y ago
        I think your information is a bit out of date; the party currently in power in Taiwan (the DPP, which has controlled the presidency and legislative branch since 2016) is pro-independence, and the people are strongly not in favor of reunification. A quick look at Wikipedia suggests that (as of 2019), about 49% of citizens supported independence (though 21% believes that now is not the time due to the political climate), with 31% supporting the status quo. Only 10.3% outright support reunification. In 2020, support for independence increased, to 54%, though support for reunification also increased to 12.5%. I think it's pretty safe to say that an overwhelming majority of people in Taiwan do not actively want reunification with China. The DPP has never held that position, and the KMT dropping it would surely splinter their supporters[0], though possibly not a majority of them. Obviously on the PRC side of the equation, allowing Taiwan its independence is a non-starter. [0] Anecdotally, it does seem that KMT support skews older, so I expect new and future generations to continue to lean more toward independence.
ceilingcorner 6y ago
Very different situation. Just analyze them from a realpolitik perspective and not the “international law” one: - Crimeans are predominately Russian speakers and so the annexation was somewhat popular. Very little bloodshed or ongoing resistance. An invasion of Taiwan would not be popular among the Taiwanese. - Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. - Crimea is mostly a resort economy. Taiwan is the center of chip production.
- Defenestresque 6y ago
  >Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. A large reason for the annexation of Ukraine was the question of control of Russia's only warm-water seaport at Sevastopol. I doubt Russia would have bothered (given the international consequences, i.e. sanctions and potential military intervention) if their access to the Black Sea wasn't threatened by Ukraine's increasing ties with the West.
  - ceilingcorner 6y ago
    But Russia was already leasing it from Ukraine. Ultimately Crimea is of limited strategic value for anyone other than Russia. The same cannot be said for Taiwan.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      Yes but if you were Russia and Ukraine was signaling that it wishes to join the EU and NATO at that point how long would you be able to rely on that lease? This is the same reason why Russia got involved in Syria, it has only a handful of warm water ports and essentially all of them are at a precarious position where they ship need to traverse potentially hostile choke points.
      - ceilingcorner 6y ago
        Yes I’m just saying that from a realpolitik perspective, nothing really changed for the rest of the world when Russia annexed Crimea. Russia leased the port before, now they own it. Hence the lack of real response other than some sanctions.
deleted 6y ago
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orangecat 6y ago
Taiwan is far more strategically important than Crimea. I'd hope at a minimum we'd raze TSMC facilities and get key personnel out of the country.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  I guess that's the point. Whether some people get help depends on whether they are of strategic import to US. Friendships made this way are very weak.
dragonwriter 6y ago
No one may formally recognize Taiwan, but lots of major countries have done a lot more to arm and prepare to protect Taiwan from China than anyone ever did Ukraine from Russia pre-Crimea. Recognition isn't nothing, but concrete support without recognition is more valuable than the reverse.
- lmilcin 6y ago
  Words. https://www.voanews.com/europe/eve-russia-invasion-anniversary-us-eu-reaffirm-crimea-belongs-ukraine https://www.voanews.com/europe/eve-russia-invasion-anniversa...
- thesuperbigfrog 6y ago
  The US sells military equipment to Taiwan on par with what is sold to Europe. Hint: the sales are probably not to make money.

vehementi 6y ago

There's recognizing and "recognizing". Everyone knows Taiwan is a separate country. But for political reasons (helping China save face, keep making money from China) they don't openly acknowledge it. It's totally different from Crimea situation.

lmilcin 6y ago
Not recognizing Taiwan doesn't make any sense unless you fear retaliation from China, which is exactly the point. People say US will save Taiwan from China? I call bullshit. If that was true US should have no trouble recognizing Taiwan which would be hopefully be start of the process of getting legitimacy Taiwan needs. I fully expect US to do nothing if China invades Taiwan. Mark my words.
- dfjgkl43 6y ago
  If the US "fears" retaliation from red china, why are they selling weapons to the republic? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_Army#Equipme...
  - FpUser 6y ago
    Heavily armed Taiwan can make China think twice before launching full scale attack. The US also makes money on those arms sales. And Taiwan can keep producing chips. And sell some of those chips to China for mutual benefit. Win win so far. However if for whatever reasons China would go full scale on Taiwan I doubt the US would respond in kind. There is just too much risk of conflict turning into WWIII. The West may try to isolate China instead.
    - kelnos 6y ago
      I think your guess is pretty likely. It would be very hard for the US to get into a direct shooting war with China, especially over an island that is 100km off the coast of mainland China. Strategically it just seems like an impossible task to keep Taiwan out of China's hands if that's what China decided to do. More likely the US (and West) would attempt to punish China economically for its behavior, though I have a hard time believing that would work either. Even if an agreement is later reached and sanctions lifted, I doubt Taiwanese independence would be a part of that. Unless there is a huge shift in sentiment toward Taiwan in China's leadership, I am really afraid that it's inevitable that Taiwan ends up being taken by force at some point in the not-too-distant future.
  - gggmaster 6y ago
    Do you really think those outdated weapons can do them any harm? They are just used to show an attitude.
- dogma1138 6y ago
  Not recognizing Taiwan makes a lot of sense when you wish not to cause an escalation that could lead to an invasion of Taiwan, this is why Taiwan itself has never declared independence, something most people forget.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    There are people in Taiwan who agree with the "one China" policy, and claim that the government of Taiwan is the ruler of that one China. Declaring independence means renouncing their claim on the rest of China. Now, in the real world, that claim plus six bucks will get you a latte at Starbucks. But politically, letting go of it might cost more than any political party is willing to pay. Thus both sides of the straights cling to the "one China" fiction.
    - dogma1138 6y ago
      Yes there are, however even if there weren’t any and today the majority would likely support independence the reality is that the threat from China due to such a declaration is a far greater factor in why Taiwan still maintains the one China policy.
    - kelnos 6y ago
      I think your information is a bit out of date; the party currently in power in Taiwan (the DPP, which has controlled the presidency and legislative branch since 2016) is pro-independence, and the people are strongly not in favor of reunification. A quick look at Wikipedia suggests that (as of 2019), about 49% of citizens supported independence (though 21% believes that now is not the time due to the political climate), with 31% supporting the status quo. Only 10.3% outright support reunification. In 2020, support for independence increased, to 54%, though support for reunification also increased to 12.5%. I think it's pretty safe to say that an overwhelming majority of people in Taiwan do not actively want reunification with China. The DPP has never held that position, and the KMT dropping it would surely splinter their supporters[0], though possibly not a majority of them. Obviously on the PRC side of the equation, allowing Taiwan its independence is a non-starter. [0] Anecdotally, it does seem that KMT support skews older, so I expect new and future generations to continue to lean more toward independence.

ceilingcorner 6y ago

Very different situation. Just analyze them from a realpolitik perspective and not the “international law” one: - Crimeans are predominately Russian speakers and so the annexation was somewhat popular. Very little bloodshed or ongoing resistance. An invasion of Taiwan would not be popular among the Taiwanese. - Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. - Crimea is mostly a resort economy. Taiwan is the center of chip production.

Defenestresque 6y ago
>Crimea and Ukraine are geopolitically not very useful. Taiwan is extremely useful, especially if it allows defense access to e.g. American warships. A large reason for the annexation of Ukraine was the question of control of Russia's only warm-water seaport at Sevastopol. I doubt Russia would have bothered (given the international consequences, i.e. sanctions and potential military intervention) if their access to the Black Sea wasn't threatened by Ukraine's increasing ties with the West.
- ceilingcorner 6y ago
  But Russia was already leasing it from Ukraine. Ultimately Crimea is of limited strategic value for anyone other than Russia. The same cannot be said for Taiwan.
  - dogma1138 6y ago
    Yes but if you were Russia and Ukraine was signaling that it wishes to join the EU and NATO at that point how long would you be able to rely on that lease? This is the same reason why Russia got involved in Syria, it has only a handful of warm water ports and essentially all of them are at a precarious position where they ship need to traverse potentially hostile choke points.
    - ceilingcorner 6y ago
      Yes I’m just saying that from a realpolitik perspective, nothing really changed for the rest of the world when Russia annexed Crimea. Russia leased the port before, now they own it. Hence the lack of real response other than some sanctions.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

orangecat 6y ago

Taiwan is far more strategically important than Crimea. I'd hope at a minimum we'd raze TSMC facilities and get key personnel out of the country.

lmilcin 6y ago
I guess that's the point. Whether some people get help depends on whether they are of strategic import to US. Friendships made this way are very weak.

dragonwriter 6y ago

No one may formally recognize Taiwan, but lots of major countries have done a lot more to arm and prepare to protect Taiwan from China than anyone ever did Ukraine from Russia pre-Crimea. Recognition isn't nothing, but concrete support without recognition is more valuable than the reverse.

lmilcin 6y ago
Words. https://www.voanews.com/europe/eve-russia-invasion-anniversary-us-eu-reaffirm-crimea-belongs-ukraine https://www.voanews.com/europe/eve-russia-invasion-anniversa...
thesuperbigfrog 6y ago
The US sells military equipment to Taiwan on par with what is sold to Europe. Hint: the sales are probably not to make money.