5 ms·

> we adapted Yes, by hogging toilet paper. I hate to be a pessimist, but just look at the track record: when covid started, there were shortages of many things

by lhorie 6y ago

> we adapted Yes, by hogging toilet paper. I hate to be a pessimist, but just look at the track record: when covid started, there were shortages of many things (e.g. for a few weeks in march, canned food and chicken ran out of stock at places). We've also seen the impact manifest in the form of price increases (basmati rice[0], for example) If we ever see large scale crop failures due to a weather event, it's quite reasonable to expect lockdown of exports of foodstuff, and it's quite reasonable to expect large spikes in consumer spending quickly depleting with the supply chain pipeline like what happened with toilet paper/canned food. The problem is you can't armchair-engineer sunlight at the scale that humanity's agricultural industry requires, so a large scale volcanic or meteoric event would likely be catastrophic and a lot of people would die. [0] https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/sourcing/basmati-rice-shortages-loom-as-prices-continue-to-rise/604441.article https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/sourcing/basmati-rice-shortages-...

eyelidlessness 6y ago
For what it’s worth the worst toilet paper shortages were because home use increased dramatically and business use distribution wasn’t readily adaptable to that kind of market or distribution.
- barbazoo 6y ago
  It's hard to believe that the behavior we saw can be reasonably explained by demand.
  - koolba 6y ago
    For people who spent greater than 1/3 of their day at the office, which would be 1/2 of their waking day, it seems reasonable that many would be defecating there as well. Plus it’s a great way to kill time between meetings.
  - jonathankoren 6y ago
    Well, it is. It’s a well know social phenomenon. It even has a name. It’s called a run. Even at the time, stores and suppliers were saying nothing was wrong with any part of the supply chain. If you think there was some vast conspiracy to cover up the toilet paper shortage of 2020, not only do you have to explain where all the toilet paper went, and why the paper mills had a sudden drop in production, but you’re also going to have to explain shortages of flour, sugar, noodles, and most bizarrely of all, bottled water. Bottle water shortages, at a time when there was nothing wrong with municipal water supplies! This isn’t even the first time in my life I’ve seen a run that was caused by panic buying. I think back to the afternoon of September 11, 2001.[0] There were gas runs. Gas stations literally ran out of gas. Prices were gouged.[1] Lines formed like the 1970s oil crisis. The next day everything was back to normal. Why? Because there was nothing wrong with the oil supply. The only shortage was at the retail stations. As soon as the tanker trucks returned, it stations reopened. [0] https://tulsaworld.com/archive/9-11-attack-fueled-panic-at-the-pump/article_0cb51021-ebff-5169-8760-760938a9dda4.html https://tulsaworld.com/archive/9-11-attack-fueled-panic-at-t... [1] http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/09/12/gas.prices/index.html http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/09/12/gas.prices/index.html
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      I think they mean to separate out 'demand for use' from 'I want it'. I bought an extra package of toilet paper. I think I had made a normal purchase of a large package in mid February and then when the shelves looked pretty bare in early March I bought another large package even though I hadn't opened the previous one. So I had months of toilet paper sitting in storage. It was still an amount that I knew I would use up in a pretty moderate timeframe, and not taking up a lot of space, so whatever, but I certainly participated in the run.
      - jonathankoren 6y ago
        I filled up my tank on 9/11, even though I knew there was no reason to. It's one of the memories that has stuck with me for going on 20 years.
    - saagarjha 6y ago
      As opposed to the runs, of course, which would also drive up toilet paper stockpiling.
  - airhead969 6y ago
    The toilet paper crisis of 1973 was caused by a joke. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/remembering-the-great-toilet-paper-shortage-of-1973 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/remembering-the-great-toilet-pa... The toilet paper crisis of 2020 was caused by panic buying to feel safe in uncertain times, and a slight bump in real use, 40%. https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/05/coronavirus-toilet-paper-shortage https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/05/coronavirus-toilet-paper-s...
dmckeon 6y ago
Shortages can easily occur based solely on the perception that a shortage is likely: https://www.nist.gov/blogs/blogrige/johnny-carson-blame-1973-toilet-paper-shortage-how-could-baldrige-help-manufacturers https://www.nist.gov/blogs/blogrige/johnny-carson-blame-1973...
airhead969 6y ago
Nuclear power and warehouse aeroponics.
cannabis_sam 6y ago
> Yes, by hogging toilet paper Wasn’t that largely due to hype in the media? I might be wrong, but I was under the impression that toilet paper isn’t really profitable to trade over longer distances, due to the volume a toilet roll takes up.. (There are probably different economic circumstances in other parts of the world than what I’m most familiar with)

by lhorie 6y ago

eyelidlessness 6y ago

For what it’s worth the worst toilet paper shortages were because home use increased dramatically and business use distribution wasn’t readily adaptable to that kind of market or distribution.

barbazoo 6y ago
It's hard to believe that the behavior we saw can be reasonably explained by demand.
- koolba 6y ago
  For people who spent greater than 1/3 of their day at the office, which would be 1/2 of their waking day, it seems reasonable that many would be defecating there as well. Plus it’s a great way to kill time between meetings.
- jonathankoren 6y ago
  Well, it is. It’s a well know social phenomenon. It even has a name. It’s called a run. Even at the time, stores and suppliers were saying nothing was wrong with any part of the supply chain. If you think there was some vast conspiracy to cover up the toilet paper shortage of 2020, not only do you have to explain where all the toilet paper went, and why the paper mills had a sudden drop in production, but you’re also going to have to explain shortages of flour, sugar, noodles, and most bizarrely of all, bottled water. Bottle water shortages, at a time when there was nothing wrong with municipal water supplies! This isn’t even the first time in my life I’ve seen a run that was caused by panic buying. I think back to the afternoon of September 11, 2001.[0] There were gas runs. Gas stations literally ran out of gas. Prices were gouged.[1] Lines formed like the 1970s oil crisis. The next day everything was back to normal. Why? Because there was nothing wrong with the oil supply. The only shortage was at the retail stations. As soon as the tanker trucks returned, it stations reopened. [0] https://tulsaworld.com/archive/9-11-attack-fueled-panic-at-the-pump/article_0cb51021-ebff-5169-8760-760938a9dda4.html https://tulsaworld.com/archive/9-11-attack-fueled-panic-at-t... [1] http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/09/12/gas.prices/index.html http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/09/12/gas.prices/index.html
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    I think they mean to separate out 'demand for use' from 'I want it'. I bought an extra package of toilet paper. I think I had made a normal purchase of a large package in mid February and then when the shelves looked pretty bare in early March I bought another large package even though I hadn't opened the previous one. So I had months of toilet paper sitting in storage. It was still an amount that I knew I would use up in a pretty moderate timeframe, and not taking up a lot of space, so whatever, but I certainly participated in the run.
    - jonathankoren 6y ago
      I filled up my tank on 9/11, even though I knew there was no reason to. It's one of the memories that has stuck with me for going on 20 years.
  - saagarjha 6y ago
    As opposed to the runs, of course, which would also drive up toilet paper stockpiling.
- airhead969 6y ago
  The toilet paper crisis of 1973 was caused by a joke. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/remembering-the-great-toilet-paper-shortage-of-1973 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/remembering-the-great-toilet-pa... The toilet paper crisis of 2020 was caused by panic buying to feel safe in uncertain times, and a slight bump in real use, 40%. https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/05/coronavirus-toilet-paper-shortage https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/05/coronavirus-toilet-paper-s...

dmckeon 6y ago

Shortages can easily occur based solely on the perception that a shortage is likely: https://www.nist.gov/blogs/blogrige/johnny-carson-blame-1973-toilet-paper-shortage-how-could-baldrige-help-manufacturers https://www.nist.gov/blogs/blogrige/johnny-carson-blame-1973...

airhead969 6y ago

Nuclear power and warehouse aeroponics.

cannabis_sam 6y ago

> Yes, by hogging toilet paper Wasn’t that largely due to hype in the media? I might be wrong, but I was under the impression that toilet paper isn’t really profitable to trade over longer distances, due to the volume a toilet roll takes up.. (There are probably different economic circumstances in other parts of the world than what I’m most familiar with)