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The economy grows at a per capita rate of about 2% per annum. The average citizen in 200 years will be approximately 50 times wealthier than we are today. It m

The economy grows at a per capita rate of about 2% per annum. The average citizen in 200 years will be approximately 50 times wealthier than we are today. It makes little sense for the comparatively poor consumers of the 21st century to pay extra for housing for the comparatively rich consumers of the 23rd century. Just as it doesn't make sense for a 20 year old to take out a huge mortgage to buy a big house that he won't need until he's 40 with a big family. It makes much more sense for us poor people or the present to save money by building cheaper, shorter-lasting housing, and let the filthy rich people of the future pay for it later.

fendy3002 6y ago
> The average citizen in 200 years will be approximately 50 times wealthier than we are today I wish I could share your optimism. If the current wealth gap trend is continuing, the future won't be much different than nowadays. It's even harder to buy a house and/or build it today than let's say 30 years ago.
- vinay427 6y ago
  The current wealth gap is shrinking, so I'm not sure what trend you're referring to. It may be increasing in your country and many others, but globally the average citizen is far better off today in virtually every material and health metric. A lot of nice plots here: https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality A more direct response: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/its-time-to-totally-change-how-we-think-about-inequality/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/its-time-to-totally-c...
  - ClumsyPilot 6y ago
    That's because poorer countries are becoming less poor It does not prove that an average person in the currently wealthy country will be 50x wealthier
    - vinay427 6y ago
      Yes, that's what I said, and even included the second link to make that more explicit. I don't mean to imply that the wealth gap in wealthy countries is decreasing. The point I am getting at is that it's far more difficult to make the argument that the wealth gap is increasing, full stop. It's quite likely that the vast majority of the world will live in countries where it's decreasing.
    - jokethrowaway 6y ago
      Currently wealthy countries can very well collapse. Maybe in 50 years people will want to move to South America, not the USA. Your average customer may very well be 50x wealthier, but they may be in Costa Rica instead of the Silicon Valley
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
allendoerfer 6y ago
The economy grows because value is being created. If we follow your advice and create less value, economic growth measured by GDP will finally become a total vanity metric of who can create the most bullshit jobs and the most taxable transactions without creating any output. It stops being a good measure for wealth creation.
- dcolkitt 6y ago
  I’m sorry, but this rant does not make any sense. How is building housing a “bullshit job” that doesn’t “create value”. Housing is pretty much the definition of a valuable good. If your point is that short-lived housing is “cheating” because it has to get replaced faster, you do know that capital depreciation is included in GDP calculations, right? Otherwise, I simply don’t see whete you’re coming from. Short-lived housing stock is just as valuable as long-lived housing stock. I care whether I have a roof over my head, not whether it will be the same roof in 100 years. For example in Japan the average home is knocked down and rebuilt every 26 years. And it works fine for them. Even better in fact, Japans one of the only countries where the cost of housing hasn’t creased increased in the past 20 years. It also means that the average Japanese home is more up to do date with modern amenities and stylings. Much better than the drafty, damp homes with low ceilings, leaky plumbing, and outdated floor plans that you find in Britain’s century old housing stock.
  - allendoerfer 6y ago
    I will explain the connection for you: A bullshit job is a job doing busy work, which is not actually needed. Building 10 homes designed to break instead of just one designed to last and be done with it, to me very much seems like a bullshit thing to do. You will have created more transactions, have grown the GDP and have made future people richer on paper. All you have actually done is to create less quality goods and cause more harm to the environment. Living your life in 4 different huts made of paper mâché is not the same as living in one properly built home. It's not like the hut will be good for 19 years and then suddenly fail you. It will be worse from day one, while a proper building can hold on to its quality. I am coming from a standpoint of valueing actual quality of life improvements. I also value nature and realize that there is climate change going on.

fendy3002 6y ago

> The average citizen in 200 years will be approximately 50 times wealthier than we are today I wish I could share your optimism. If the current wealth gap trend is continuing, the future won't be much different than nowadays. It's even harder to buy a house and/or build it today than let's say 30 years ago.

vinay427 6y ago
The current wealth gap is shrinking, so I'm not sure what trend you're referring to. It may be increasing in your country and many others, but globally the average citizen is far better off today in virtually every material and health metric. A lot of nice plots here: https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality https://ourworldindata.org/global-economic-inequality A more direct response: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/its-time-to-totally-change-how-we-think-about-inequality/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/04/its-time-to-totally-c...
- ClumsyPilot 6y ago
  That's because poorer countries are becoming less poor It does not prove that an average person in the currently wealthy country will be 50x wealthier
  - vinay427 6y ago
    Yes, that's what I said, and even included the second link to make that more explicit. I don't mean to imply that the wealth gap in wealthy countries is decreasing. The point I am getting at is that it's far more difficult to make the argument that the wealth gap is increasing, full stop. It's quite likely that the vast majority of the world will live in countries where it's decreasing.
  - jokethrowaway 6y ago
    Currently wealthy countries can very well collapse. Maybe in 50 years people will want to move to South America, not the USA. Your average customer may very well be 50x wealthier, but they may be in Costa Rica instead of the Silicon Valley
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

allendoerfer 6y ago

The economy grows because value is being created. If we follow your advice and create less value, economic growth measured by GDP will finally become a total vanity metric of who can create the most bullshit jobs and the most taxable transactions without creating any output. It stops being a good measure for wealth creation.

dcolkitt 6y ago
I’m sorry, but this rant does not make any sense. How is building housing a “bullshit job” that doesn’t “create value”. Housing is pretty much the definition of a valuable good. If your point is that short-lived housing is “cheating” because it has to get replaced faster, you do know that capital depreciation is included in GDP calculations, right? Otherwise, I simply don’t see whete you’re coming from. Short-lived housing stock is just as valuable as long-lived housing stock. I care whether I have a roof over my head, not whether it will be the same roof in 100 years. For example in Japan the average home is knocked down and rebuilt every 26 years. And it works fine for them. Even better in fact, Japans one of the only countries where the cost of housing hasn’t creased increased in the past 20 years. It also means that the average Japanese home is more up to do date with modern amenities and stylings. Much better than the drafty, damp homes with low ceilings, leaky plumbing, and outdated floor plans that you find in Britain’s century old housing stock.
- allendoerfer 6y ago
  I will explain the connection for you: A bullshit job is a job doing busy work, which is not actually needed. Building 10 homes designed to break instead of just one designed to last and be done with it, to me very much seems like a bullshit thing to do. You will have created more transactions, have grown the GDP and have made future people richer on paper. All you have actually done is to create less quality goods and cause more harm to the environment. Living your life in 4 different huts made of paper mâché is not the same as living in one properly built home. It's not like the hut will be good for 19 years and then suddenly fail you. It will be worse from day one, while a proper building can hold on to its quality. I am coming from a standpoint of valueing actual quality of life improvements. I also value nature and realize that there is climate change going on.