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Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior soluti

Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior solutions like wind and solar which literally can't provide enough heat for the majority of needs we have, can't scale, requires insane amounts of land, requires complex daisy chains of different solutions to work, isn't reliable, requires absurd amounts of resources, needs backup from oil, coal, gas or nuclear and won't be able to deliver anything even close to useful baseload and most importantly is so inadequate when it comes to thinking about any future civilisations energy needs both in scale and density. A forum like this people still clings to these Rube Goldberg constellations and think they are somehow supportiing progress. Especially since 3billion people still don't have proper access to energy. Oh well.

ben_w 6y ago
> Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I know. I made implicit reference to that with the 2025/2030 split. > I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior solutions like wind and solar which… Has it occurred to you that you might be… wrong? I mean, when I find myself disagreeing with a lot of smart people, I do ask myself that question. I could go thought all of your claims separately, but I’ve never found that to be successful at convincing anyone.
- ThomPete 6y ago
  what exactly would i be wrong about? I am open to a persuasive argument. Dropping calculations based on speculations not even factoring everything in isnt one of them.
  - ben_w 6y ago
    > what exactly would i be wrong about? Everything. Literally everything. > wind and solar which literally can't provide enough heat for the majority of needs we have Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use. > can't scale Scales up to Kardashev III. > requires insane amounts of land Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people. 15TW all-source power use * 1kW/m^2 * 20% cell efficiency * 25% capacity factor = 300,000 square km = 1.7 years of lost rainforest = 38.9 m^2/person = a little more than half my apartment as land area per person. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=15TW%20%2F%28%201kw%2Fm%5E2%20%2A%2020%25%20%2A%2025%25%29 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=15TW%20%2F%28%201kw%2Fm... Again, that 38.9 m^2/person is for all power — heating and transport, domestic and industrial usage — if you only wanted to deal with electricity you can achieve that just by covering rooftops, while you can cover about 90% of car needs with PV on BEV cars (if you allow them to share, but that’s not difficult, heavy users need to charge just like they already do and light users would want to sell the excess, dismissing this as “complex” would be ridiculous given what cars are), meaning not much extra new land has to be dedicated to PV (or to wind if you want diversity). The only big things people even need to think about now is stuff like synthetic jet fuel, and even then we already know the chemical reactions, it’s just about commercialising them. > requires complex daisy chains of different solutions to work No more complex than anything else in the modern world, therefore calling it complex as a criticism is false. And further, they’re still incredibly valuable even without batteries. And they are the only existing long-term solution to our energy needs, given fossil fuels are finite and commercial fusion isn’t actually a thing yet. > isn't reliable Can be forecast reliably a week ahead in great detail, and seasonally in broad brushstrokes. We’re not going to be surprised that winter is dark, we can plan around this trivially in much the same way and for much the same reasons that supermarkets don’t get surprised by seasonal demand for ice-cream or raincoats. > requires absurd amounts of resources Less than the alternatives, again only looks big because there’s 7 billion people. > needs backup from oil, coal, gas or nuclear and won't be able to deliver anything even close to useful baseload Or, as demonstrated, batteries. You could also do it with a sufficiently large grid, because transmission losses between e.g. Berlin and the Sahara desert are less than the price difference between PV and coal or nuclear. > and most importantly is so inadequate when it comes to thinking about any future civilisations energy needs both in scale and density Literally Dyson swarms. > A forum like this people still clings to these Rube Goldberg constellations and think they are somehow supportiing progress. “PV + battery” is two items, calling that a Rube Goldberg machine is like dismissing the wheel because you get the most out of it by adding an axel. Plus I can literally buy USB batteries with PV pre-mounted to them at negligible cost compared to those without PV — the hard stuff has already been done, commercialised, commoditised, and made it to the high street. > Especially since 3billion people still don't have proper access to energy. Oh well. PV and wind are the cheapest power sources, so the most capable of improving that.
    - ThomPete 6y ago
      "Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use." yes and it's spread out thinly which is why it doesn't kill us.Your solution is to take the least energy dense form and spend material, huge areas of land and money to build a solution that is inferior to all the other solutions. Scales up to Kardashev III" In theory not in practice. You are speculating not actually proving anything. "Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people." Ehh we are going to be 9 billion. Not sure what exactly you think it proves. You are playing excel sheet scientist not actually proving the application in reality. "No more complex than anything else in the modern world, therefore calling it complex as a criticism is false." There is a world of difference between having a nuclear power plant or using oil or gas or coal which all have the energy STORED in themselves vs having to convert thin layers of energy into batteries which again aren't even close to be able to deliver the kind of utility the other sources can. "Can be forecast reliably a week ahead in great detail" No it can't and it isn't and will require backup from other sources. Again excel sheet acrobatics isn't really useful here. "Less than the alternatives, again only looks big because there’s 7 billion people." We are going to be 9. It's a reality and you aren't actually dealing with it. It's not going to go away. Batterie are not demonstrated as being a solution by any metric what so ever so no. You keep comping up with speculative solutions which wont actually work nor solve anything as the grid will never be flexible enough and batteries can't actually deliver what you seem to be dreaming they can. "Literally Dyson swarms." Again more speculcation. Come back when energy from wind and solar is more than 10% of the worlds energy consumption. "“PV + battery” is two items, calling that a Rube Goldberg machine is like dismissing the wheel because you get the most out of it by adding an axel." I am not. I am calling all your other solutions to solve the issues with intermittency like grids and weather forcasting PLUS batteries plus storing of energy in batteries and PV for rube goldberg machines.

ben_w 6y ago

> Electricity is less than 20% of the world energy consumption. I know. I made implicit reference to that with the 2025/2030 split. > I find it fascinating that a tech focused forum like HN is so intent on taking an inferior solutions like wind and solar which… Has it occurred to you that you might be… wrong? I mean, when I find myself disagreeing with a lot of smart people, I do ask myself that question. I could go thought all of your claims separately, but I’ve never found that to be successful at convincing anyone.

ThomPete 6y ago
what exactly would i be wrong about? I am open to a persuasive argument. Dropping calculations based on speculations not even factoring everything in isnt one of them.
- ben_w 6y ago
  > what exactly would i be wrong about? Everything. Literally everything. > wind and solar which literally can't provide enough heat for the majority of needs we have Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use. > can't scale Scales up to Kardashev III. > requires insane amounts of land Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people. 15TW all-source power use * 1kW/m^2 * 20% cell efficiency * 25% capacity factor = 300,000 square km = 1.7 years of lost rainforest = 38.9 m^2/person = a little more than half my apartment as land area per person. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=15TW%20%2F%28%201kw%2Fm%5E2%20%2A%2020%25%20%2A%2025%25%29 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=15TW%20%2F%28%201kw%2Fm... Again, that 38.9 m^2/person is for all power — heating and transport, domestic and industrial usage — if you only wanted to deal with electricity you can achieve that just by covering rooftops, while you can cover about 90% of car needs with PV on BEV cars (if you allow them to share, but that’s not difficult, heavy users need to charge just like they already do and light users would want to sell the excess, dismissing this as “complex” would be ridiculous given what cars are), meaning not much extra new land has to be dedicated to PV (or to wind if you want diversity). The only big things people even need to think about now is stuff like synthetic jet fuel, and even then we already know the chemical reactions, it’s just about commercialising them. > requires complex daisy chains of different solutions to work No more complex than anything else in the modern world, therefore calling it complex as a criticism is false. And further, they’re still incredibly valuable even without batteries. And they are the only existing long-term solution to our energy needs, given fossil fuels are finite and commercial fusion isn’t actually a thing yet. > isn't reliable Can be forecast reliably a week ahead in great detail, and seasonally in broad brushstrokes. We’re not going to be surprised that winter is dark, we can plan around this trivially in much the same way and for much the same reasons that supermarkets don’t get surprised by seasonal demand for ice-cream or raincoats. > requires absurd amounts of resources Less than the alternatives, again only looks big because there’s 7 billion people. > needs backup from oil, coal, gas or nuclear and won't be able to deliver anything even close to useful baseload Or, as demonstrated, batteries. You could also do it with a sufficiently large grid, because transmission losses between e.g. Berlin and the Sahara desert are less than the price difference between PV and coal or nuclear. > and most importantly is so inadequate when it comes to thinking about any future civilisations energy needs both in scale and density Literally Dyson swarms. > A forum like this people still clings to these Rube Goldberg constellations and think they are somehow supportiing progress. “PV + battery” is two items, calling that a Rube Goldberg machine is like dismissing the wheel because you get the most out of it by adding an axel. Plus I can literally buy USB batteries with PV pre-mounted to them at negligible cost compared to those without PV — the hard stuff has already been done, commercialised, commoditised, and made it to the high street. > Especially since 3billion people still don't have proper access to energy. Oh well. PV and wind are the cheapest power sources, so the most capable of improving that.
  - ThomPete 6y ago
    "Almost all heat on Earth is solar in origin, including the majority that we don’t use." yes and it's spread out thinly which is why it doesn't kill us.Your solution is to take the least energy dense form and spend material, huge areas of land and money to build a solution that is inferior to all the other solutions. Scales up to Kardashev III" In theory not in practice. You are speculating not actually proving anything. "Only looks like lots of land because there’s 7 billion people." Ehh we are going to be 9 billion. Not sure what exactly you think it proves. You are playing excel sheet scientist not actually proving the application in reality. "No more complex than anything else in the modern world, therefore calling it complex as a criticism is false." There is a world of difference between having a nuclear power plant or using oil or gas or coal which all have the energy STORED in themselves vs having to convert thin layers of energy into batteries which again aren't even close to be able to deliver the kind of utility the other sources can. "Can be forecast reliably a week ahead in great detail" No it can't and it isn't and will require backup from other sources. Again excel sheet acrobatics isn't really useful here. "Less than the alternatives, again only looks big because there’s 7 billion people." We are going to be 9. It's a reality and you aren't actually dealing with it. It's not going to go away. Batterie are not demonstrated as being a solution by any metric what so ever so no. You keep comping up with speculative solutions which wont actually work nor solve anything as the grid will never be flexible enough and batteries can't actually deliver what you seem to be dreaming they can. "Literally Dyson swarms." Again more speculcation. Come back when energy from wind and solar is more than 10% of the worlds energy consumption. "“PV + battery” is two items, calling that a Rube Goldberg machine is like dismissing the wheel because you get the most out of it by adding an axel." I am not. I am calling all your other solutions to solve the issues with intermittency like grids and weather forcasting PLUS batteries plus storing of energy in batteries and PV for rube goldberg machines.