4 ms·

you mean like how TSMC is building a fab in arizona and samsung in texas?

pradn 6y ago
But TSMC's Arizona plant will make 5nm chips in 2023, by which time 5nm wont be the leading-edge node - 3nm will be. It's nice to see some geodiversity however. In any case, TSMC is dependent on ASML, which has a monopoly on leading-edge EUV tech. There is a decent amount of competition at older nodes, like > 40nm. So we'll still be able to make some chips if TSMC completely goes out of business, but obviously it wont scale to the demand and will seriously hamper business, science, and government.
- dnautics 6y ago
  I'm comparing against GP's suggestion "to build a fab". Point is, SMC and TSMC fabs will be online faster than a direct fab investment. > science I believe science has access to more compute than it needs. I could be wrong now, but last I checked, a few years ago, the huge computational clusters (both public and private, e.g. @ pharma companies) were under-utilized, especially on legacy-hardware-that-is-still-pretty-damn-good, and scrambling to find ways to engage with outside clients to fill out capacity.
- vasco 6y ago
  You make it sound like anyone with the will can just take ASML product and create a leading fab. If that was the case Intel wouldn't be in the mess it is in.
  - pradn 6y ago
    I'm not saying ASML -> cutting-edge capacity, but the opposite. Having cutting-edge capacity probably means you're dependent on ASML.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2023. There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2030 for that matter. Not everything uses the latest process node.
  - pradn 6y ago
    Yes, absolutely. Still, the point is that the factory will be useful, but not a panacea to the US's lack of cutting-edge chip-making prowess.
jacquesm 6y ago
I think they have a Chinese move against Taiwan more on the mind than an earthquake or other natural disaster.
- dnautics 6y ago
  *and South Korea. Maybe not an explicit attack, but if there is supply chain disruption due to tensions between china and japan not having contested sealanes (getting out of SK could be at risk) in your chip pipeline is probably a good thing.
- protomyth 6y ago
  I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.
  - jacquesm 6y ago
    That would do it.
    - protomyth 6y ago
      Thinking about it, I would expect some kidnap... immigration to the US of some personnel would probably happen.
      - jacquesm 6y ago
        Makes you wonder if those buildings would be rigged already. Conspiracy level stuff, for sure but it is such a strategic asset. In WWII bridges that were still in daily use in Europe were already mined well before the territory changed control with the leavers trying to deny the new arrivals the use of the bridges.
        protomyth 6y ago
        In the modern era, it probably is just gathering precise positioning for a missile launch. I expect some computer wiping will be in the cards too. That might be the modern version of rigging the buildings already. Given what a strategic asset they are, I would expect its not really "conspiracy level stuff" on various plans. After all, the US had attack plans for the UK between the world wars.
wavefunction 6y ago
As far as I know Samsung in Texas is not yet a done deal. They're requesting complete tax abatement for twenty years in addition to the inducements offered by local governments and I believe they're waiting to see if they can pull it off. Their current facilities in Austin have remained closed since the big snow storm.

But TSMC's Arizona plant will make 5nm chips in 2023, by which time 5nm wont be the leading-edge node - 3nm will be. It's nice to see some geodiversity however. In any case, TSMC is dependent on ASML, which has a monopoly on leading-edge EUV tech. There is a decent amount of competition at older nodes, like > 40nm. So we'll still be able to make some chips if TSMC completely goes out of business, but obviously it wont scale to the demand and will seriously hamper business, science, and government.

dnautics 6y ago
I'm comparing against GP's suggestion "to build a fab". Point is, SMC and TSMC fabs will be online faster than a direct fab investment. > science I believe science has access to more compute than it needs. I could be wrong now, but last I checked, a few years ago, the huge computational clusters (both public and private, e.g. @ pharma companies) were under-utilized, especially on legacy-hardware-that-is-still-pretty-damn-good, and scrambling to find ways to engage with outside clients to fill out capacity.
vasco 6y ago
You make it sound like anyone with the will can just take ASML product and create a leading fab. If that was the case Intel wouldn't be in the mess it is in.
- pradn 6y ago
  I'm not saying ASML -> cutting-edge capacity, but the opposite. Having cutting-edge capacity probably means you're dependent on ASML.
UncleOxidant 6y ago
There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2023. There will still be plenty of demand for 5nm chips in 2030 for that matter. Not everything uses the latest process node.
- pradn 6y ago
  Yes, absolutely. Still, the point is that the factory will be useful, but not a panacea to the US's lack of cutting-edge chip-making prowess.

jacquesm 6y ago

I think they have a Chinese move against Taiwan more on the mind than an earthquake or other natural disaster.

dnautics 6y ago
*and South Korea. Maybe not an explicit attack, but if there is supply chain disruption due to tensions between china and japan not having contested sealanes (getting out of SK could be at risk) in your chip pipeline is probably a good thing.
protomyth 6y ago
I would imagine that some DoD plan states that all those fabs in Taiwan get blown up upon invasion.
- jacquesm 6y ago
  That would do it.
  - protomyth 6y ago
    Thinking about it, I would expect some kidnap... immigration to the US of some personnel would probably happen.
    - jacquesm 6y ago
      Makes you wonder if those buildings would be rigged already. Conspiracy level stuff, for sure but it is such a strategic asset. In WWII bridges that were still in daily use in Europe were already mined well before the territory changed control with the leavers trying to deny the new arrivals the use of the bridges.
      - protomyth 6y ago
        In the modern era, it probably is just gathering precise positioning for a missile launch. I expect some computer wiping will be in the cards too. That might be the modern version of rigging the buildings already. Given what a strategic asset they are, I would expect its not really "conspiracy level stuff" on various plans. After all, the US had attack plans for the UK between the world wars.

wavefunction 6y ago

As far as I know Samsung in Texas is not yet a done deal. They're requesting complete tax abatement for twenty years in addition to the inducements offered by local governments and I believe they're waiting to see if they can pull it off. Their current facilities in Austin have remained closed since the big snow storm.