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But isnt meteorology a good example of a science capable of producing models with high accuracy (albeit just for a couple of days in advance) in absence of lab
by dr_faustus 6y ago
But isnt meteorology a good example of a science capable of producing models with high accuracy (albeit just for a couple of days in advance) in absence of lab conditions. I can't think of a single economic model as accurate as modern weather models (or even climate models).
- jjk166 6y agoWell if we had recessions as frequently as we had hurricanes, I imagine we'd get quite good at predicting them
- atrettel 6y agoYes, you are correct. Weather forecasting is much more accurate (at least in the short term) than economic forecasting. My point wasn't about comparing the accuracy of the predictions between meteorology and economics, though. It was about pointing out the similar difficulties in using the scientific method. For example, someone might come up with some sort of hypothesis about what would happen if a category 5 hurricane appears in an odd location in the Atlantic, but nobody would then attempt to create that kind of hurricane just to see what happens. That would be an ethical and logistical nightmare. Instead, they would rely on some sort of simulation to test the hypothesis. This is the same kind of problem as in economics, but for meteorology the equations you are using to make the prediction are obviously on a much more solid footing.