4 ms·
I wonder if awareness + the experience that we had just 10 years ago is going to limit the size of this bubble. 10 years is a very short time it's the same sect
by mprovo1 15y ago
I wonder if awareness + the experience that we had just 10 years ago is going to limit the size of this bubble. 10 years is a very short time it's the same sector.
I know for one thing, I had my lesson 10 years ago, my dad had his lessons investing in Nortel Networks and most of my friends learned a lot about bubbles in 2000. The pain of losing that much money is still there.
- bad_user 15y agoThere are always people that haven't lost enough in the previous bubbles and the allure of getting a huge return in only 1 or 2 years is greater than life. I'm sure a lot of people recognize that evaluations are already inflated, but feel confident that they'll get out before the bubble explodes.
- dschoen 15y agoFully agree.
- staticshock 15y agoThis discussion came up recently in a Planet Money episode (http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/05/20/136403092/the-tuesday-podcast-we-sold-gold http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/05/20/136403092/the-tues...). They interviewed an economist who ran a simple experiment: he created a market for the students in his class with a VERY predictable security (it paid a pre-established dividend N times, and then stopped.) And yet speculative bubbles invariably formed and crashed.
- jturn 15y agoThat blew my mind. The professor even told the students it was happening as it was happening and the bubble wouldn't deflate.
- khafra 15y agoIt feels like it's similar to the "guess a number between 0 and 100 that's 2/3 of the average person's guess" game. In the real world, you don't win by doing the most rational thing; you win by succesfully modeling the other players.