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> We can only hope that will be its downfall. Be careful what you wish for. Toppling a horrible government does not always solve problems. I'm not saying we sh

> We can only hope that will be its downfall. Be careful what you wish for. Toppling a horrible government does not always solve problems. I'm not saying we should just throw the oppressed under the bus to get stability, but an actual downfall of CCP would probably be like Saddam Hussein only exponentially worse.

tablespoon 6y ago
> Be careful what you wish for. Toppling a horrible government does not always solve problems. I'm not saying we should just throw the oppressed under the bus to get stability, but an actual downfall of CCP would probably be like Saddam Hussein only exponentially worse. I'm not so sure about that. Iraq has an unstable ethnic configuration that the US was in the position to preserve for dubious geopolitical reasons. If it had been allowed to fragment along those lines, toppling Saddam would have probably gone better. China does have some minority ethnic regions, but I doubt anyone would care if they broke away except Han Chinese nationalists. I'd say it's break up would be more like the Soviet Union's, except it would probably go better since the Chinese economy is far more competitive.
- praptak 6y ago
  You may get a Soviet Union's relatively peaceful breakup if you follow Soviet Union's relatively gradual transition from power. It's not a given, even the Soviets had their 1991 coup attempt. Also, it's not like Soviet Union's breakup didn't leave any problems. Post-breakup Russia has a track record of military conflicts - Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine. Post-breakup Belarus fell back to dictatorship. I don't think we have a reliable recipe for low-harm transitioning away from authoritarian regimes.
- refenestrator 6y ago
  You might want to check the historical record, there. There have been a bunch of government collapses and insurrections in China over the last few hundred years, featuring an occasional Chinese Jesus (seriously) or sometimes mystical wushu boxers (also seriously). They all killed 10s of millions, some of them close to 100m. It's never 'fine' for the people who live there.
brundolf 6y ago
There are many different definitions of "downfall". Nobody's suggesting the US ride in and dethrone the CCP, leaving a power vacuum in its wake. There are several reasons that would (and should) never happen. All I'm suggesting is that there is rot at the heart of the CCP, which over time could hopefully eat away at their effectiveness, favorability, and eventually their power over Chinese society. Even then I'm not holding my breath, but it's a nice thought.
- praptak 6y ago
  To be clear - I'm not talking any actions (yes, that would be absurd), just pointing out that it is not obvious which outcomes we should root for.

tablespoon 6y ago

> Be careful what you wish for. Toppling a horrible government does not always solve problems. I'm not saying we should just throw the oppressed under the bus to get stability, but an actual downfall of CCP would probably be like Saddam Hussein only exponentially worse. I'm not so sure about that. Iraq has an unstable ethnic configuration that the US was in the position to preserve for dubious geopolitical reasons. If it had been allowed to fragment along those lines, toppling Saddam would have probably gone better. China does have some minority ethnic regions, but I doubt anyone would care if they broke away except Han Chinese nationalists. I'd say it's break up would be more like the Soviet Union's, except it would probably go better since the Chinese economy is far more competitive.

praptak 6y ago
You may get a Soviet Union's relatively peaceful breakup if you follow Soviet Union's relatively gradual transition from power. It's not a given, even the Soviets had their 1991 coup attempt. Also, it's not like Soviet Union's breakup didn't leave any problems. Post-breakup Russia has a track record of military conflicts - Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine. Post-breakup Belarus fell back to dictatorship. I don't think we have a reliable recipe for low-harm transitioning away from authoritarian regimes.
refenestrator 6y ago
You might want to check the historical record, there. There have been a bunch of government collapses and insurrections in China over the last few hundred years, featuring an occasional Chinese Jesus (seriously) or sometimes mystical wushu boxers (also seriously). They all killed 10s of millions, some of them close to 100m. It's never 'fine' for the people who live there.

brundolf 6y ago

There are many different definitions of "downfall". Nobody's suggesting the US ride in and dethrone the CCP, leaving a power vacuum in its wake. There are several reasons that would (and should) never happen. All I'm suggesting is that there is rot at the heart of the CCP, which over time could hopefully eat away at their effectiveness, favorability, and eventually their power over Chinese society. Even then I'm not holding my breath, but it's a nice thought.

praptak 6y ago
To be clear - I'm not talking any actions (yes, that would be absurd), just pointing out that it is not obvious which outcomes we should root for.