3 ms·

IIRC TSMC is planning on building fab capacity in the US soon anyway, which adds a new twist to that tale.

by Nursie 6y ago

gumby 6y ago
To double click on that: TSMC has been playing the geostrategic game for a while. Taiwan wasn't simply a good choice because it had labor, transport access, and a supportive government: it played to certain Cold War issues. Then as the mainland market developed they increased their mainland footprint as a hedge (makes it harder for the Chinese government to attack TSMC, though as we've seen from Alibaba, Xi appears happy to "move fast and break things"). That did in fact forestall investment in a competitor until recently. They have also been expanding outside China-Taiwan, distributing their capacity and developing support in the USA and Europe. Worst case (actual shooting war between China and Taiwan) they would have a lot to fall back on. Hon Hai has followed the same geostrategy (to even greater extreme) with its Foxconn subsidiary.
- baybal2 6y ago
  > They have also been expanding outside China-Taiwan, distributing their capacity and developing support in the USA and Europe. Worst case (actual shooting war between China and Taiwan) they would have a lot to fall back on. Very unlikely. In case of a shooting war, the industry will run out of consumables sooner, or later. As a fact, 90%+ of them come from the Taiwan/Japan/Korea triangle, and just any military move in the region will be effectively shutting the industry down globally.
  - frandroid 6y ago
    Which basically ensures no one will start a shooting war.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      > Which basically ensures no one will start a shooting war. And seeing men thinking so again, 100 years after, only tells that Raymond Poincaré was right.
Nokinside 6y ago
TSMC builds only 25K/month 5nm megafab in Arizona. I suspect that it's mainly for serving the US defense needs. TSMC's GIGAFABs (> 100K/month) are used for mass manufacturing bleeding edge consumer electronics. They are still build only in Taiwan.
- avs733 6y ago
  Another way of looking at TSMC's Arizona fab is similar FAB 68 in Dalian, which still seems to have largely been built for strategic relationship building purposes.
- craigjb 6y ago
  TSMC's plans for Arizona have been increased to start with 100k per month with future phases up to 200k [1] [1] https://technosports.co.in/2021/03/03/tsmc-to-build-5nm-plant-in-the-u-s-with-100k-wafers-month-output-report/ https://technosports.co.in/2021/03/03/tsmc-to-build-5nm-plan...
varispeed 6y ago
I wish TSMC decided to go with the UK. We have ARM here, RPi and others plus very talented people. Hopefully one day it will happen.
- Daho0n 6y ago
  With Brexit, it won't.

IIRC TSMC is planning on building fab capacity in the US soon anyway, which adds a new twist to that tale.

by Nursie 6y ago

IIRC TSMC is planning on building fab capacity in the US soon anyway, which adds a new twist to that tale.

To double click on that: TSMC has been playing the geostrategic game for a while. Taiwan wasn't simply a good choice because it had labor, transport access, and a supportive government: it played to certain Cold War issues. Then as the mainland market developed they increased their mainland footprint as a hedge (makes it harder for the Chinese government to attack TSMC, though as we've seen from Alibaba, Xi appears happy to "move fast and break things"). That did in fact forestall investment in a competitor until recently. They have also been expanding outside China-Taiwan, distributing their capacity and developing support in the USA and Europe. Worst case (actual shooting war between China and Taiwan) they would have a lot to fall back on. Hon Hai has followed the same geostrategy (to even greater extreme) with its Foxconn subsidiary.

baybal2 6y ago
> They have also been expanding outside China-Taiwan, distributing their capacity and developing support in the USA and Europe. Worst case (actual shooting war between China and Taiwan) they would have a lot to fall back on. Very unlikely. In case of a shooting war, the industry will run out of consumables sooner, or later. As a fact, 90%+ of them come from the Taiwan/Japan/Korea triangle, and just any military move in the region will be effectively shutting the industry down globally.
- frandroid 6y ago
  Which basically ensures no one will start a shooting war.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > Which basically ensures no one will start a shooting war. And seeing men thinking so again, 100 years after, only tells that Raymond Poincaré was right.

Nokinside 6y ago

TSMC builds only 25K/month 5nm megafab in Arizona. I suspect that it's mainly for serving the US defense needs. TSMC's GIGAFABs (> 100K/month) are used for mass manufacturing bleeding edge consumer electronics. They are still build only in Taiwan.

avs733 6y ago
Another way of looking at TSMC's Arizona fab is similar FAB 68 in Dalian, which still seems to have largely been built for strategic relationship building purposes.
craigjb 6y ago
TSMC's plans for Arizona have been increased to start with 100k per month with future phases up to 200k [1] [1] https://technosports.co.in/2021/03/03/tsmc-to-build-5nm-plant-in-the-u-s-with-100k-wafers-month-output-report/ https://technosports.co.in/2021/03/03/tsmc-to-build-5nm-plan...

varispeed 6y ago

I wish TSMC decided to go with the UK. We have ARM here, RPi and others plus very talented people. Hopefully one day it will happen.

Daho0n 6y ago
With Brexit, it won't.