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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-huge-rally-china-condemns-us-gross-interference https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-huge-rally-china-condemns-us-gross-interference https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/18/hong-kong-huge... https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48656471 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-48656471 At many different times in 2019, 1.7M-2M Hong Kong citizens, or 25% of the population, proudly protested in the streets and requested for their freedom. If only something good had came out of it. Now it's sunk to what China's best at: false arrests: https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/mc5bah/young_man_subdued_by_tuen_mun_police_a_bag_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/HongKong/comments/mc5bah/young_man_..., arrest for accessing online information https://restofworld.org/2021/hong-kong-journalist-on-trial-for-using-public-database/ https://restofworld.org/2021/hong-kong-journalist-on-trial-f... brainwashing https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/23/hong-kong-will-distribute-mainland-books-to-schools-to-promote-patriotism/ https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/23/hong-kong-will-distribute-... removal of religious freedom https://hk.appledaily.com/news/20210322/ZUYEZROAIFB4NK2274RBMT7QDY/ https://hk.appledaily.com/news/20210322/ZUYEZROAIFB4NK2274RB... fake democratic system https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/16/why-and-how-i-ended-my-participation-in-an-undemocratic-electoral-system https://hongkongfp.com/2021/03/16/why-and-how-i-ended-my-par... Imagine if you were a proud free parisian, and all of a sudden, you now live under nazi regime with concentration camps. That's probably what it feels like.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
k_sze 6y ago
I live in HK. 1.7M-2M is a really large exaggeration.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
  What is your estimate, and how did you measure it? I live in Paris where most of French demonstrations take place (including the yellow vest movement) but I can't pretend to have better estimates than all local and global media sources and public observers.
  - dirtyid 6y ago
    Historically, HK protestors grossly over exaggerate for optics, but MSM usually endorses organizer headcount uncritically. Reality consistently closer to police (under)estimates. Professionals at crowd control are better at estimating crowd sizes. Study from HKU of pre 2019 protests: https://graphics.reuters.com/HONGKONG-EXTRADITION-PROTESTS/0100B01001H/index.html https://graphics.reuters.com/HONGKONG-EXTRADITION-PROTESTS/0... Another analysis with machine learning, about 1/2 protestor estimates. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/03/world/asia/hong-kong-protest-crowd-ai.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/03/world/asia/ho... And another, estimates protesters had to occupy 18 miles of streets to pack 1M protestors, actual protests occupied 1 mile. Acknowledges not exact science, but leans towards conservative estimate of 250k... incidentally close to police estimates. https://www.cjr.org/analysis/how-many-marched-protests-hong-kong-how-guess-crowd-size.php https://www.cjr.org/analysis/how-many-marched-protests-hong-... IMO just average protestor and police reports for ball park figure.
    - logotype 6y ago
      The articles you are referring to doesn’t show the full picture. In all protests only a part of the crowd is visible on the streets, the majority of the day is spent trying to get up to the streets from the MTR.
      - dirtyid 6y ago
        HKU has 15 years of data points on HK protests. There is reliable pattern of protestor organizers significantly overestimating and police mildly underestimating. Overall HKU and Police estimates are much more aligned. These two parties are actual subject matter experts vs protest organizers, ergo based on historic data and expertise, organizer estimates should be presumed to be less reliable / credible. Doesn't mean 2019 protests weren't massive. They're just likely half as massive as what makes for good headlines.
- loceng 6y ago
  So what source do we trust on the numbers? Satellite imagery is likely the best way to estimate. The massive crowds in slow march peaceful protest videos I saw were astonishing. However if we extrapolate that not everyone who'd support it or are silently supporting it - what % of people available to protest/march were out? Edit to add: downvoting a question asking for trustworthy, quantifiable sources - you're failing.
- logotype 6y ago
  It is not an exaggeration. I was there, joining several protests including the CHRF 2M protest. In addition, the police estimates is always wrong (of course they want the numbers to be as low as possible). One example was a protest around Victoria Park. According to “official police figures” it was 180k attending - but they only counted the people in the limited Victoria Park square, it was completely PACKED. They didn’t count the hundreds of thousands of people outside the square who couldn’t fit in, they also didn’t count the people stuck in the MTR next to the park, who couldn’t even fit on the streets. The “official police statistics” is always off by a magnitude of x.
  - woutr_be 6y ago
    I was also there, but in my opinion 1.7M was an exaggeration. Don’t get me wrong, there were A LOT of people, the whole area from Victoria Park to Tamar Park was packed with people. There was also a constant flow of people coming in from North Point, a good 20 minute walk to the starting point. Police estimates were definitely wrong, but the estimates from organisers are also always exaggerated, for the same reasons you mentioned the police estimates are wrong.
ipnon 6y ago
Regarding arrest for accessing online information, I have become fascinated lately with the concept of legal warfare. It is the use of legal constructions to align other governments or subordinate bureaucracies to your strategic goals. For example, when Russia invaded Ukraine, they used the pretext that only volunteers from Russia were traveling to Ukraine to support a legal separatist movement. Now none of these claims withstand any sort of legal scrutiny, but that's not the point. In the year or so it takes the Hague to spell out the obvious, that the Russian military in coordination with the Russian presidency created a bogus legal argument that aligns with their strategic goal of annexing as much of Eastern Europe as possible, the invasion is already completed and Donetsk is effectively a Russian vassal in the middle of Ukranian territory. Just like in the time of the American Revolution guerilla tactics were innovations to the stodgy preconceptions of war that the British had, where they believed a gentleman's war should be fought by squares of men taken broadsides at regular intervals, we must recognize that armed conflicts today are always accompanied by legal warfare, the legal activities that support broader strategic objectives.
- vijayr02 6y ago
  is this not just propaganda by another name? Seems to me that everyone wants to cast their war as a just war [0]. If that means deniable approaches or false flag operations [1] then so be it. In particular I found this excerpt from [1] ironic in the context of your comment: > Russo-Swedish War In 1788, the head tailor at the Royal Swedish Opera received an order to sew a number of Russian military uniforms. These were then used by the Swedes to stage an attack on Puumala, a Swedish outpost on the Russo-Swedish border, on 27 June 1788. This caused an outrage in Stockholm and impressed the Riksdag of the Estates, the Swedish national assembly, who until then had refused to agree to an offensive war against Russia. The Puumala incident allowed King Gustav III of Sweden, who lacked the constitutional authority to initiate unprovoked hostilities without the Estates' consent, to launch the Russo-Swedish War (1788–1790). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_war_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_war_theory [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag
  - ipnon 6y ago
midasuni 6y ago
The irony is that HK is being used as a model to get rid of peaceful protest in the U.K. - 10 years in jail for peacefully walking up the road with a sign that annoys an MP.
- Wowfunhappy 6y ago
  What are you referring to?
  - stx 6y ago
    I think he was referring to this: https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-outlaw-protests-that-are-noisy-or-cause-annoyance-2021-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-outlaw-protest...
- banannaise 6y ago
  The US is doing similar things, via a combination of long sentences for petty crimes and abuse of arrest and pretrial detention powers.
tasogare 6y ago
You won’t have to imagine long, in Canada one can now be imprisoned for using the (in)correct pronoun of a relative, so the CCP model might be globalized sooner than we expected. Each country have his legalized taboos, and those we had in the West aren’t more ridiculous than the Chinese one. Free speech should prevail.
- surajama 6y ago
  https://www.cbc.ca/cbcdocspov/features/canadas-gender-identity-rights-bill-c-16-explained https://www.cbc.ca/cbcdocspov/features/canadas-gender-identi... “could someone go to jail for using the wrong pronoun? In the Criminal Code, which does not reference pronouns, Cossman says misusing pronouns alone would not constitute a criminal act.”
  - tasogare 6y ago
    Time will tell... For the moment an arrestation over a trivial matter like this is a very big deal. Also the red guards are actively brigading here, elsewhere on the net and irl to impose their cultural revolution, in addition of hijacking the legal system, so the comparison with communist China is very apt.
    - pwinnski 6y ago
      So you made a false claim, and supplied with evidence your claim was false, you reply with "Time will tell" rather than admit your claim was false. This is not helpful to anyone.
    - JumpCrisscross 6y ago
      > over a trivial matter like this Contempt of court is anything but minor. Violating a court order, in particular a gag order regarding an ongoing case, is a very serious offense. Casting it as a law banning speech in any way similar to what Beijing is doing in Hong Kong is dishonest.
    - op03 6y ago
      This modern red gaurd you worry about is built on top of what social media enables, amplifies and rewards. Two points worth making about "revolutions" built on top of social media - 1. They dont generate outcomes. We now have 15 years of data on social medias bullshit revolutions that prove it. Best example would be what has happened in Tunisia or what outcomes that Hope and Change guy produced beyond getting himself a job at Netflix. 2. The clueless buffoon class behind social media algos of the last 15 years have finally woken up to their own cluelessness, so the algos are changing. Reward mechanisms are changing. What gets amplified is changing. Who gets thrown off the network is evolving. And even though all these changes are still in the realm of half baked shit, one thing they ensure is the type of "revolutions" and "revolutionaries" propped up over the last 15 year wont resemble what gets propped up in the next 15. So I wouldnt loose too much sleep. Especially in Canada.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

k_sze 6y ago

I live in HK. 1.7M-2M is a really large exaggeration.

rcMgD2BwE72F 6y ago
What is your estimate, and how did you measure it? I live in Paris where most of French demonstrations take place (including the yellow vest movement) but I can't pretend to have better estimates than all local and global media sources and public observers.
- dirtyid 6y ago
  Historically, HK protestors grossly over exaggerate for optics, but MSM usually endorses organizer headcount uncritically. Reality consistently closer to police (under)estimates. Professionals at crowd control are better at estimating crowd sizes. Study from HKU of pre 2019 protests: https://graphics.reuters.com/HONGKONG-EXTRADITION-PROTESTS/0100B01001H/index.html https://graphics.reuters.com/HONGKONG-EXTRADITION-PROTESTS/0... Another analysis with machine learning, about 1/2 protestor estimates. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/03/world/asia/hong-kong-protest-crowd-ai.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/07/03/world/asia/ho... And another, estimates protesters had to occupy 18 miles of streets to pack 1M protestors, actual protests occupied 1 mile. Acknowledges not exact science, but leans towards conservative estimate of 250k... incidentally close to police estimates. https://www.cjr.org/analysis/how-many-marched-protests-hong-kong-how-guess-crowd-size.php https://www.cjr.org/analysis/how-many-marched-protests-hong-... IMO just average protestor and police reports for ball park figure.
  - logotype 6y ago
    The articles you are referring to doesn’t show the full picture. In all protests only a part of the crowd is visible on the streets, the majority of the day is spent trying to get up to the streets from the MTR.
    - dirtyid 6y ago
      HKU has 15 years of data points on HK protests. There is reliable pattern of protestor organizers significantly overestimating and police mildly underestimating. Overall HKU and Police estimates are much more aligned. These two parties are actual subject matter experts vs protest organizers, ergo based on historic data and expertise, organizer estimates should be presumed to be less reliable / credible. Doesn't mean 2019 protests weren't massive. They're just likely half as massive as what makes for good headlines.
loceng 6y ago
So what source do we trust on the numbers? Satellite imagery is likely the best way to estimate. The massive crowds in slow march peaceful protest videos I saw were astonishing. However if we extrapolate that not everyone who'd support it or are silently supporting it - what % of people available to protest/march were out? Edit to add: downvoting a question asking for trustworthy, quantifiable sources - you're failing.
logotype 6y ago
It is not an exaggeration. I was there, joining several protests including the CHRF 2M protest. In addition, the police estimates is always wrong (of course they want the numbers to be as low as possible). One example was a protest around Victoria Park. According to “official police figures” it was 180k attending - but they only counted the people in the limited Victoria Park square, it was completely PACKED. They didn’t count the hundreds of thousands of people outside the square who couldn’t fit in, they also didn’t count the people stuck in the MTR next to the park, who couldn’t even fit on the streets. The “official police statistics” is always off by a magnitude of x.
- woutr_be 6y ago
  I was also there, but in my opinion 1.7M was an exaggeration. Don’t get me wrong, there were A LOT of people, the whole area from Victoria Park to Tamar Park was packed with people. There was also a constant flow of people coming in from North Point, a good 20 minute walk to the starting point. Police estimates were definitely wrong, but the estimates from organisers are also always exaggerated, for the same reasons you mentioned the police estimates are wrong.

ipnon 6y ago

Regarding arrest for accessing online information, I have become fascinated lately with the concept of legal warfare. It is the use of legal constructions to align other governments or subordinate bureaucracies to your strategic goals. For example, when Russia invaded Ukraine, they used the pretext that only volunteers from Russia were traveling to Ukraine to support a legal separatist movement. Now none of these claims withstand any sort of legal scrutiny, but that's not the point. In the year or so it takes the Hague to spell out the obvious, that the Russian military in coordination with the Russian presidency created a bogus legal argument that aligns with their strategic goal of annexing as much of Eastern Europe as possible, the invasion is already completed and Donetsk is effectively a Russian vassal in the middle of Ukranian territory. Just like in the time of the American Revolution guerilla tactics were innovations to the stodgy preconceptions of war that the British had, where they believed a gentleman's war should be fought by squares of men taken broadsides at regular intervals, we must recognize that armed conflicts today are always accompanied by legal warfare, the legal activities that support broader strategic objectives.

vijayr02 6y ago
is this not just propaganda by another name? Seems to me that everyone wants to cast their war as a just war [0]. If that means deniable approaches or false flag operations [1] then so be it. In particular I found this excerpt from [1] ironic in the context of your comment: > Russo-Swedish War In 1788, the head tailor at the Royal Swedish Opera received an order to sew a number of Russian military uniforms. These were then used by the Swedes to stage an attack on Puumala, a Swedish outpost on the Russo-Swedish border, on 27 June 1788. This caused an outrage in Stockholm and impressed the Riksdag of the Estates, the Swedish national assembly, who until then had refused to agree to an offensive war against Russia. The Puumala incident allowed King Gustav III of Sweden, who lacked the constitutional authority to initiate unprovoked hostilities without the Estates' consent, to launch the Russo-Swedish War (1788–1790). [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_war_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_war_theory [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag
- ipnon 6y ago

midasuni 6y ago

The irony is that HK is being used as a model to get rid of peaceful protest in the U.K. - 10 years in jail for peacefully walking up the road with a sign that annoys an MP.

Wowfunhappy 6y ago
What are you referring to?
- stx 6y ago
  I think he was referring to this: https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-outlaw-protests-that-are-noisy-or-cause-annoyance-2021-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-outlaw-protest...
banannaise 6y ago
The US is doing similar things, via a combination of long sentences for petty crimes and abuse of arrest and pretrial detention powers.

tasogare 6y ago

You won’t have to imagine long, in Canada one can now be imprisoned for using the (in)correct pronoun of a relative, so the CCP model might be globalized sooner than we expected. Each country have his legalized taboos, and those we had in the West aren’t more ridiculous than the Chinese one. Free speech should prevail.

surajama 6y ago
https://www.cbc.ca/cbcdocspov/features/canadas-gender-identity-rights-bill-c-16-explained https://www.cbc.ca/cbcdocspov/features/canadas-gender-identi... “could someone go to jail for using the wrong pronoun? In the Criminal Code, which does not reference pronouns, Cossman says misusing pronouns alone would not constitute a criminal act.”
- tasogare 6y ago
  Time will tell... For the moment an arrestation over a trivial matter like this is a very big deal. Also the red guards are actively brigading here, elsewhere on the net and irl to impose their cultural revolution, in addition of hijacking the legal system, so the comparison with communist China is very apt.
  - pwinnski 6y ago
    So you made a false claim, and supplied with evidence your claim was false, you reply with "Time will tell" rather than admit your claim was false. This is not helpful to anyone.
  - JumpCrisscross 6y ago
    > over a trivial matter like this Contempt of court is anything but minor. Violating a court order, in particular a gag order regarding an ongoing case, is a very serious offense. Casting it as a law banning speech in any way similar to what Beijing is doing in Hong Kong is dishonest.
  - op03 6y ago
    This modern red gaurd you worry about is built on top of what social media enables, amplifies and rewards. Two points worth making about "revolutions" built on top of social media - 1. They dont generate outcomes. We now have 15 years of data on social medias bullshit revolutions that prove it. Best example would be what has happened in Tunisia or what outcomes that Hope and Change guy produced beyond getting himself a job at Netflix. 2. The clueless buffoon class behind social media algos of the last 15 years have finally woken up to their own cluelessness, so the algos are changing. Reward mechanisms are changing. What gets amplified is changing. Who gets thrown off the network is evolving. And even though all these changes are still in the realm of half baked shit, one thing they ensure is the type of "revolutions" and "revolutionaries" propped up over the last 15 year wont resemble what gets propped up in the next 15. So I wouldnt loose too much sleep. Especially in Canada.