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This sounds like a testable theory. What's the pedestrian death rate for city buses? They've always been in high-pedestrian areas and are much larger than the

This sounds like a testable theory. What's the pedestrian death rate for city buses? They've always been in high-pedestrian areas and are much larger than the average vehicle.

ch4s3 6y ago
From the article, as a share of new cars sold over the time span considered larger vehicles represent a higher and higher share. What this means is that a larger share of vehicles on the road are trucks and SUVs which are more lethal in a collision with a pedestrian. Even if the rate of crashes was the same you would expect more people to die given the increase in average vehicle mass. Given vehicle size trends, holding all else equal, this is exactly the outcome you would expect.
- linuxftw 6y ago
  > holding all else equal I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. I contend that pedestrians are more distracted than ever, as are drivers. The control for the 'bigger cars more death' would be evaluating the death rate of smaller cars. The headline doesn't say 'accidents' are getting deadlier, it's saying 'roads' are getting deadlier.
  - ch4s3 6y ago
    The title is just a title. The article is more complicated than the title. > I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. Well yes, obviously. My point is that the observed outcome is in line with the expected outcome based on the increase in car sizes. But still it's a bit more complicated. note the following: > In 2019, 6,301 pedestrians were killed by vehicles on American streets — up 46% from 2010. Over the same timespan, the total for all traffic deaths rose by 5%. This implies that distracted driving could be partially responsible, but something else is probably going on with pedestrians. and: > And in the first half of 2020, while driving was down because of the pandemic, the pedestrian death rate — the number of people struck and killed compared with the number of miles driven — soared by 20%, putting 2020 on track for the largest one-year increase in the death rate ever. The article goes on to posit the popular theory that increased vehicle speed is the key factor in the last year. In fact a lot of the advocacy around the issue is focused on traffic calming in urban centers which has been shown repeatedly to lower the number of pedestrian deaths.

This sounds like a testable theory. What's the pedestrian death rate for city buses? They've always been in high-pedestrian areas and are much larger than the average vehicle.

ch4s3 6y ago

From the article, as a share of new cars sold over the time span considered larger vehicles represent a higher and higher share. What this means is that a larger share of vehicles on the road are trucks and SUVs which are more lethal in a collision with a pedestrian. Even if the rate of crashes was the same you would expect more people to die given the increase in average vehicle mass. Given vehicle size trends, holding all else equal, this is exactly the outcome you would expect.

linuxftw 6y ago
> holding all else equal I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. I contend that pedestrians are more distracted than ever, as are drivers. The control for the 'bigger cars more death' would be evaluating the death rate of smaller cars. The headline doesn't say 'accidents' are getting deadlier, it's saying 'roads' are getting deadlier.
- ch4s3 6y ago
  The title is just a title. The article is more complicated than the title. > I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. Well yes, obviously. My point is that the observed outcome is in line with the expected outcome based on the increase in car sizes. But still it's a bit more complicated. note the following: > In 2019, 6,301 pedestrians were killed by vehicles on American streets — up 46% from 2010. Over the same timespan, the total for all traffic deaths rose by 5%. This implies that distracted driving could be partially responsible, but something else is probably going on with pedestrians. and: > And in the first half of 2020, while driving was down because of the pandemic, the pedestrian death rate — the number of people struck and killed compared with the number of miles driven — soared by 20%, putting 2020 on track for the largest one-year increase in the death rate ever. The article goes on to posit the popular theory that increased vehicle speed is the key factor in the last year. In fact a lot of the advocacy around the issue is focused on traffic calming in urban centers which has been shown repeatedly to lower the number of pedestrian deaths.