3 ms·

It's mostly down to vehicles being larger over the timespan measured. More mass means you're more likely to die. And taller wider vehicles have larger blind spo

by ch4s3 6y ago

It's mostly down to vehicles being larger over the timespan measured. More mass means you're more likely to die. And taller wider vehicles have larger blind spots for pedestrians. There are infrastructure issues too, but vehicle size alone is sufficient to explain most of the increase.

linuxftw 6y ago
This sounds like a testable theory. What's the pedestrian death rate for city buses? They've always been in high-pedestrian areas and are much larger than the average vehicle.
- ch4s3 6y ago
  From the article, as a share of new cars sold over the time span considered larger vehicles represent a higher and higher share. What this means is that a larger share of vehicles on the road are trucks and SUVs which are more lethal in a collision with a pedestrian. Even if the rate of crashes was the same you would expect more people to die given the increase in average vehicle mass. Given vehicle size trends, holding all else equal, this is exactly the outcome you would expect.
  - linuxftw 6y ago
    > holding all else equal I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. I contend that pedestrians are more distracted than ever, as are drivers. The control for the 'bigger cars more death' would be evaluating the death rate of smaller cars. The headline doesn't say 'accidents' are getting deadlier, it's saying 'roads' are getting deadlier.
    - ch4s3 6y ago
      The title is just a title. The article is more complicated than the title. > I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. Well yes, obviously. My point is that the observed outcome is in line with the expected outcome based on the increase in car sizes. But still it's a bit more complicated. note the following: > In 2019, 6,301 pedestrians were killed by vehicles on American streets — up 46% from 2010. Over the same timespan, the total for all traffic deaths rose by 5%. This implies that distracted driving could be partially responsible, but something else is probably going on with pedestrians. and: > And in the first half of 2020, while driving was down because of the pandemic, the pedestrian death rate — the number of people struck and killed compared with the number of miles driven — soared by 20%, putting 2020 on track for the largest one-year increase in the death rate ever. The article goes on to posit the popular theory that increased vehicle speed is the key factor in the last year. In fact a lot of the advocacy around the issue is focused on traffic calming in urban centers which has been shown repeatedly to lower the number of pedestrian deaths.
mikece 6y ago
> It's mostly down to vehicles being larger over the timespan measured. My neighbor's Smart Car and Cooper Mini beg to differ. Also, the proliferation of electric cars requires shedding weight in order to get more mileage. Sure, we still have lots of massive SUVs on the road but I would dispute the notion that vehicles overall are getting heavier on average.
- ch4s3 6y ago
  From the article: > Larger vehicles, such as the popular SUVs and trucks that dominate new car sales, are more dangerous for pedestrians than sedans Most new car sales are now SUVs and trucks. The share of SUVs and trucks sold is up over the period considered in the article, your neighbor notwithstanding.
- MereInterest 6y ago
  The data do not support your anecdotal evidence. The difference is less than I had thought, about 20% heavier on average relative to the minimum in the 1970s, but car size is increasing on average. (Section 4 in the below link.) https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report#Highlight4 https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-...
- wiredfool 6y ago
  Minis are _huge_ compared to what they used to be. Also, VW Golf/Rabbits. Civics. Accords. They're all huge. And they've all got a lot less glass than they use to have. (High beltline, small windows) Not that long ago you could get a car that was ~2000 lbs. A big car was 2 tons.
- dagw 6y ago
  Smart Car and Cooper Mini beg to differ I haven't checked the sales numbers, but I see far fewer Smart Cars today compared to even 5 years ago. Also the latest Mini Coopers are massive. Much larger than most normal cars.
jcims 6y ago
I don't think that works out. The statistic is that pedestrian deaths are up 46% since 2010. There are possibly scenarios where vehicle mass or configuration makes a difference, but cars and trucks haven't changed that much in a decade. A spot check of an F150 and a Toyota Camry don't really yield any substantial change in that time frame.
- ch4s3 6y ago
  It isn't that F150s are heavier than 10 years ago, but that a higher share of new car sales are SUVs and trucks vs sedans.
  - jcims 6y ago
    Ah I got you. Found a study from 2005 - https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/11/4/232 https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/11/4/232 Light truck (pickups, suvs, vans) accounted for ~30% higher relative risk vs cars. Surprisingly (to me) motorcycle/pedestrian accidents are three times as likely to result in a fatality. Personally I think it's mostly related to distracted driving/walking but vehicle type almost certainly plays some role.
    - ch4s3 6y ago
      Consider that larger vehicles also have larger blind spots that might obscure a pedestrian walking into a dangerous area.

by ch4s3 6y ago

linuxftw 6y ago

This sounds like a testable theory. What's the pedestrian death rate for city buses? They've always been in high-pedestrian areas and are much larger than the average vehicle.

ch4s3 6y ago
From the article, as a share of new cars sold over the time span considered larger vehicles represent a higher and higher share. What this means is that a larger share of vehicles on the road are trucks and SUVs which are more lethal in a collision with a pedestrian. Even if the rate of crashes was the same you would expect more people to die given the increase in average vehicle mass. Given vehicle size trends, holding all else equal, this is exactly the outcome you would expect.
- linuxftw 6y ago
  > holding all else equal I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. I contend that pedestrians are more distracted than ever, as are drivers. The control for the 'bigger cars more death' would be evaluating the death rate of smaller cars. The headline doesn't say 'accidents' are getting deadlier, it's saying 'roads' are getting deadlier.
  - ch4s3 6y ago
    The title is just a title. The article is more complicated than the title. > I don't hold all else equal, because nothing is equal. Well yes, obviously. My point is that the observed outcome is in line with the expected outcome based on the increase in car sizes. But still it's a bit more complicated. note the following: > In 2019, 6,301 pedestrians were killed by vehicles on American streets — up 46% from 2010. Over the same timespan, the total for all traffic deaths rose by 5%. This implies that distracted driving could be partially responsible, but something else is probably going on with pedestrians. and: > And in the first half of 2020, while driving was down because of the pandemic, the pedestrian death rate — the number of people struck and killed compared with the number of miles driven — soared by 20%, putting 2020 on track for the largest one-year increase in the death rate ever. The article goes on to posit the popular theory that increased vehicle speed is the key factor in the last year. In fact a lot of the advocacy around the issue is focused on traffic calming in urban centers which has been shown repeatedly to lower the number of pedestrian deaths.

mikece 6y ago

> It's mostly down to vehicles being larger over the timespan measured. My neighbor's Smart Car and Cooper Mini beg to differ. Also, the proliferation of electric cars requires shedding weight in order to get more mileage. Sure, we still have lots of massive SUVs on the road but I would dispute the notion that vehicles overall are getting heavier on average.

ch4s3 6y ago
From the article: > Larger vehicles, such as the popular SUVs and trucks that dominate new car sales, are more dangerous for pedestrians than sedans Most new car sales are now SUVs and trucks. The share of SUVs and trucks sold is up over the period considered in the article, your neighbor notwithstanding.
MereInterest 6y ago
The data do not support your anecdotal evidence. The difference is less than I had thought, about 20% heavier on average relative to the minimum in the 1970s, but car size is increasing on average. (Section 4 in the below link.) https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-trends-report#Highlight4 https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/highlights-automotive-...
wiredfool 6y ago
Minis are _huge_ compared to what they used to be. Also, VW Golf/Rabbits. Civics. Accords. They're all huge. And they've all got a lot less glass than they use to have. (High beltline, small windows) Not that long ago you could get a car that was ~2000 lbs. A big car was 2 tons.
dagw 6y ago
Smart Car and Cooper Mini beg to differ I haven't checked the sales numbers, but I see far fewer Smart Cars today compared to even 5 years ago. Also the latest Mini Coopers are massive. Much larger than most normal cars.

jcims 6y ago

I don't think that works out. The statistic is that pedestrian deaths are up 46% since 2010. There are possibly scenarios where vehicle mass or configuration makes a difference, but cars and trucks haven't changed that much in a decade. A spot check of an F150 and a Toyota Camry don't really yield any substantial change in that time frame.

ch4s3 6y ago
It isn't that F150s are heavier than 10 years ago, but that a higher share of new car sales are SUVs and trucks vs sedans.
- jcims 6y ago
  Ah I got you. Found a study from 2005 - https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/11/4/232 https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/11/4/232 Light truck (pickups, suvs, vans) accounted for ~30% higher relative risk vs cars. Surprisingly (to me) motorcycle/pedestrian accidents are three times as likely to result in a fatality. Personally I think it's mostly related to distracted driving/walking but vehicle type almost certainly plays some role.
  - ch4s3 6y ago
    Consider that larger vehicles also have larger blind spots that might obscure a pedestrian walking into a dangerous area.