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I recently learned about the estimated age of the universe. It’s only 13.8 billion years. So when it says Venus was hospitable for billions of years, let’s say

I recently learned about the estimated age of the universe. It’s only 13.8 billion years. So when it says Venus was hospitable for billions of years, let’s say 2 billion years, that amounts already to 14% of all there was and will ever be. What marvel did happen in this time?

thaumasiotes 6y ago
> So when it says Venus was hospitable for billions of years, let’s say 2 billion years, that amounts already to 14% of all there was and will ever be. Huh? You're saying the universe is about to end?
- brnt 6y ago
  I guess he meant that Venus' habitable days will never return.
  - thaumasiotes 6y ago
    That would be 14% of all there ever has been. In order for it to also be 14% of all there ever will be, the future would need to have zero duration.
brnt 6y ago
We've had life for about 500 million years on earth. Maybe a billion as single celled life forms. I used to worry that in 5 billion years it'll all be over on account of the sun entering a new phase and engulfing Earth. But it appears in about 800 million years photosynthesis will no longer be possible [1], which puts an even closer limit on our time here. There's a good chance some will get off this rock, but many won't. And all that we know will be lost, and we'll need space suits to visit, no more nature to enjoy, just barren rock. We'll not be us anymore either of course, time will tell what we evolve into. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future
- fogihujy 6y ago
  > We've had life for about 500 million years on earth. Somewhere from 3.5 to up to 4.5 billion years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms You're right though; our time here is very short and if we want to ensure survival of Earth-based life then we need to start considering panspermia, first to other planets in our own planetary system (assuming they don't have native life already -- we're not entirely sure about that yet), and then to other systems. If we can colonize a world around a red dwarf, preferably a young one, then Earth-based life should be set for billions of years into the future.
  - protoman3000 6y ago
    4.5 billion years until by the laws of physics a state emerged, where macrobodies consisting of billions of cells, fueled by exploitation of energy from chemical reactions, are using movement devices that employ triggered explosions, and are constructing machines which assemble elements on atomic level in such way to make apparatuses which enable the harvest of information by the laws of logic. I don’t know, people. Maybe I am turning pessimistic, but it took the universe in between a third and a half of its duration of existence to produce a system which yields mass produced RGB keyboards, failed SpaceX launches and climate destroying lifeforms. I would estimate the probability of another biogenesis happening in parallel to ours is very low.
    - saiya-jin 6y ago
      On a single other planet? Very close to 0. But multiply this number by say 400 billion for our galaxy, and maybe additional 150-2000 billion for all the galaxies, and the chances are not that bad. Probably. Plus the idea that life needs to look the same as here on Earth has no logical base - it could be from number of other elements, forms etc. Basic premise is just multiplication, where it goes from there is anybody's guess. Carbon with water is convenient but its not the only option.
      - matthewfelgate 6y ago

thaumasiotes 6y ago

> So when it says Venus was hospitable for billions of years, let’s say 2 billion years, that amounts already to 14% of all there was and will ever be. Huh? You're saying the universe is about to end?

brnt 6y ago
I guess he meant that Venus' habitable days will never return.
- thaumasiotes 6y ago
  That would be 14% of all there ever has been. In order for it to also be 14% of all there ever will be, the future would need to have zero duration.

brnt 6y ago

We've had life for about 500 million years on earth. Maybe a billion as single celled life forms. I used to worry that in 5 billion years it'll all be over on account of the sun entering a new phase and engulfing Earth. But it appears in about 800 million years photosynthesis will no longer be possible [1], which puts an even closer limit on our time here. There's a good chance some will get off this rock, but many won't. And all that we know will be lost, and we'll need space suits to visit, no more nature to enjoy, just barren rock. We'll not be us anymore either of course, time will tell what we evolve into. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_far_future

fogihujy 6y ago
> We've had life for about 500 million years on earth. Somewhere from 3.5 to up to 4.5 billion years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms You're right though; our time here is very short and if we want to ensure survival of Earth-based life then we need to start considering panspermia, first to other planets in our own planetary system (assuming they don't have native life already -- we're not entirely sure about that yet), and then to other systems. If we can colonize a world around a red dwarf, preferably a young one, then Earth-based life should be set for billions of years into the future.
- protoman3000 6y ago
  4.5 billion years until by the laws of physics a state emerged, where macrobodies consisting of billions of cells, fueled by exploitation of energy from chemical reactions, are using movement devices that employ triggered explosions, and are constructing machines which assemble elements on atomic level in such way to make apparatuses which enable the harvest of information by the laws of logic. I don’t know, people. Maybe I am turning pessimistic, but it took the universe in between a third and a half of its duration of existence to produce a system which yields mass produced RGB keyboards, failed SpaceX launches and climate destroying lifeforms. I would estimate the probability of another biogenesis happening in parallel to ours is very low.
  - saiya-jin 6y ago
    On a single other planet? Very close to 0. But multiply this number by say 400 billion for our galaxy, and maybe additional 150-2000 billion for all the galaxies, and the chances are not that bad. Probably. Plus the idea that life needs to look the same as here on Earth has no logical base - it could be from number of other elements, forms etc. Basic premise is just multiplication, where it goes from there is anybody's guess. Carbon with water is convenient but its not the only option.
    - matthewfelgate 6y ago