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Again, the chance that the ten heads occurred "by chance", "occurred coincidentally" or "is a coincidence" is not 1/1000. IF they occurred by chance, the probab
by davrosthedalek 6y ago
Again, the chance that the ten heads occurred "by chance", "occurred coincidentally" or "is a coincidence" is not 1/1000. IF they occurred by chance, the probability for such a thing to occur (again) is 1/1000.
1/36 is the wrong answer for the question "what are chances this is a coincidence?". That probability is unknown, because it depends on whether the dice are actually fair, and what other dice are there. For example, if you have to discriminate between fair dice and unfair dice with only 2s on them, a 12 would indicate that with 100%, it was a coincidence.
You might ask differently though: "What WAS the probability to throw a 12 with two fair dice?". But that probability collapsed to 100% when you actually throw them and got the result.
- dataflow 6y agoAgain, I'm saying I think people would interpret "what are the chances this is a coincidence" as "what are the chances of this occurring coincidentally (i.e. by chance, naturally, not influenced by an outside force)", to which they would answer 1/36.