3 ms·
It's like this: The chance to get 10 heads with a fair coin is <1/1000. I.e., if you use the same coin many-many times, <1/1000 of these 10-throw runs will have
by davrosthedalek 6y ago
It's like this:
The chance to get 10 heads with a fair coin is <1/1000. I.e., if you use the same coin many-many times, <1/1000 of these 10-throw runs will have all heads, on average.
This does not mean that, if you get 10 heads, it's a fair coin with 1/1000 probability. In the strongest sense, without further information, one can not make any statement about that probability.
- dataflow 6y agoI don't think either of us disagrees with this. We're not debating what is mathematically true. We're debating what the BBC wrote.
- davrosthedalek 6y agoYeah. My point is this "There's a 1 in 1024 chance of this measurement being a statistical coincidence." I understand this as "There is a 1:1024 chance that a statistical coincidence is the cause of this result". But that's wrong, the statement must be: If it is a statistical coincidence, it had a probability of 1:1024 of occurring. But then the probability that it was cause by a statistical fluctuation is 100% -- It's assumed to be true.