3 ms·
... with triple the cases. I didn't claim hospitals would just be empty, but for the same level of cases they will be a lot emptier. It gives more buffer. Mode
by scrollaway 6y ago
... with triple the cases. I didn't claim hospitals would just be empty, but for the same level of cases they will be a lot emptier. It gives more buffer.
Models (for BE) point to this current wave being the mildest one yet, with a peak well below the previous two. And remember the population has more and more immunity built up over time regardless of vaccines. Getting to triple the cases we had at the peak of the previous ones is not really in the cards.
- morsch 6y agoThat's odd, models for Germany predicted a tripling of the rate in a few weeks (unless there is a stricter lockdown), and the observations of the past few weeks bear this out. B.1.1.7 is more contagious (and more lethal), we've seen this in the UK and in Denmark, and we're seeing it now in Germany, where it has become the dominant strain within a couple of months. I don't see why it would be different in Belgium. You claimed we wouldn't need a lockdown if we had vaccinated twice as many people, which is just incorrect, for the reasons outlined above: we're still left with vast parts of the population with no immunity, enough of whom would be hospitalized to oversaturate hospitals. Edit: just looked it up, and Belgium has already doubled compared to one month ago, and is at double the rate that Germany currently has.
- scrollaway 6y agoFor the record here is my source on modeling for the current wave: https://twitter.com/houterkabouter/status/1373291865416609795 https://twitter.com/houterkabouter/status/137329186541660979... @houterkabouter's models have been excellent since the beginning so this is definitely where I'd place the most weight. The situation in Belgium is different from Germany because the day-to-day measures have been different since October.