8 ms·
You are directly repeating the propaganda Arianespace and Russia has been pushing about SpaceX since the beginning. I would honestly advice you to rethink this
by nickik 6y ago
You are directly repeating the propaganda Arianespace and Russia has been pushing about SpaceX since the beginning. I would honestly advice you to rethink this before repeating stuff that is pushed by lots of Russian government channels.
First of all, you are applying a total double standard. If you want to honestly analyses you need to look at all rockets and the amount of commercial support.
If you are actually interest in the history, you will see that SpaceX got some money for ISS servicing. This money was conditional on flying lots of time, and they had to win the contract against a whole host of competitors. However this amount of money, was tiny compared to the development cost of say an Ariane 5 or Ariane 6.
> Rocket technology hasn't really changed in decades.
This depends on what you mean by 'changed'. Depending on how you look at it a lot has changed, another way of looking at it nothing has.
You could make the argument we are still using lithium batteries today, so nothing has changed since the 90s, but that would be a terrible argument.
And so it is for rockets, there clearly have been advancements that have changed the industry fundamentally since the 90s.
> Reusability is not a panacea. It increases complexity, decreases safety and much of the cost savings are mitigated by the fact that you have to carry extra fuel for the return back (thereby cutting into the amount of payload you can carry).
This is true. But again, please actually look at history. SpaceX started taking the majority of contracts BEFORE re-usability was a factor, before SpaceX had human space launches, or even DoD launches.
SpaceX Falcon 9 was taking the majority of launch contracts simply based on rocket design and production. During this time they did not get any money from government for development and yet the improved the rocket every single year by a substantial amount.
They developed re-usability themselves and thus were able to fly even more rockets. And pretty much every expert not paid by the Russian government has now admitted that re-usabiltiy is actually worth if for SpaceX.
The fuel cost doesn't matter that much if your rocket is big enough to carry the required payload that the market demands. Often it would be hard to sell that extra payload to costumers anyway. It is simply false to say 'most of the savings are mitigated by fuel', this is simply not true. The construction of the booster cost 30 million, and its insane to argue that it is not worth it for them to recover that.
Safety is not increased, as both very conservative NASA and DoD certification programs have shown. Reusable boosters have a 100% perfect flight record so far. Reusable boosters are certified for both human and the most expensive scientific missions.
> The space shuttle was reusable and yet, it is generally seen as a disappointment
The Shuttle was partially reusable. Remember that gigantic orange tank? Yeah, that was thrown away. Solid can not really be reused as the cost is in the fuel manufacture. The Shuttle reused the 'box' of the solid boosters but basically replaced almost all of it.
> (and I don't believe for a second SpaceX engineers are better than NASA engineers).
This is just another terrible argument, where I don't even know where to start its so bad.
SpaceX Falcon 9 booster reuse and Shuttle reuse are totally different concept. Shuttle is a second stage, orbital human capable vehicle. The Falcon 9 booster flies only a couple 100km into the ocean and then lands.
Also, the Falcon 9 re-usability was designed in the year 2010-2019. They used modern tools, and used 10s of iterations, and multiple times evolved and adjusted the design.
NASA engineers (actually contractors for the most part) had to basically figure out something that is much harder (second stage reuse) with 1960 technology and basically get it correct on the first try.
You are simply creating false equivalency.
Even so, nobody in the world today would deny that SpaceX had the best rocket building team in the world. They have top people vertically integrated from valves to structures, to engines. I don't think even NASA engineers working on SLS would deny that SpaceX has the best overall rocket team in the world.
- macspoofing 6y ago>You are directly repeating the propaganda Arianespace and Russia has been pushing about SpaceX since the beginning. I would honestly advice you to rethink this before repeating stuff that is pushed by lots of Russian government channels. What a crazy accusation to make. I can't have an opinion about the business model of a company lest some doofus accuses me of what? Being a russian bot? Spreading DANGEROUS ideas? Jesus Christ. Get a handle on yourself. I have no doubt Russians are not objective observers here. SpaceX is a competitor so the criticism they level has to be seen through that lens ... but ... their criticism will have a kernel of truth. On the other side, because of Musk's cult of personality (and don't misunderstood, I like Musk), his companies don't necessarily get the same level of scrutiny either. Are you sure you're looking at it objectively? I'm not a 'space guy'. I watched video by Thunderf00t where he made some credible points against some of the claims SpaceX makes [1] especially around cost savings of reusability. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TxkE_oYrjU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TxkE_oYrjU
- nickik 6y agoI'm not saying you are russian bot, I'm saying governments and companies that don't like SpaceX have spread a lot of misinformation and people pick them up as facts. I didn't say these ideas were dangerous, just wrong. SpaceX became commercially dominate when they were had less government money then Orbital, ULA or Arianespace. That is simple fact. For these companies like Arianespace to have the odacity to complain that SpaceX get financed by government contract while they literally got a check for Ariane 6 that is larger then all development money received by SpaceX for Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon 1, Cargo Dragon (2), Crew Dragon. Not to mention that the money for Ariane 6 is just for that rocket, the individual engines have been government financed with separate budgets for far longer. The Vinci for example has been funded with government money since 2003. Is just insane cognitive dissonance for them to claim foul. > their criticism will have a kernel of truth It my have a kernel of truth but if the 'truth' is something totally banal like 'Reusability is not a panacea.' then that doesn't actually make their arguments valid. You can just go threw the time progression on the competitors about SpaceX since 2010, first they claimed their prices were not achievable and they would go bankrupt, then they had to much backlog and they couldn't achieve high launch rates, then it was that they couldn't land rockets, then it was that they couldn't actually reuse them, then it was they can't reuse them economically, then it was that while maybe each reuse was economical overall it was not economical because there are not enough launches overall. The fact is SpaceX launched 50% of the global payload to Orbit, and over around 30% of all spacecraft. Likely this year SpaceX will launch closer to 70% of global payload to Orbit. Their strategy has clearly paid of and allowed them to do thing that were considered impossible not long ago. Thunderf00t is basically a well known troll that has zero credibility among space fans. He loves to make wide ranging conclusion on very little evidence, lots of extrapolation and even more characterization of the discussion, arguing against straw-men. If you are gone talk about the 'Cult of Musk', Thunderf00t is the opposite basically the pope of the 'Cult of Anti-Musk', he made a career of making videos about how every Musk is wrong about everything.