5 ms·

COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. That could be a credible reason why a potential lab leak went un

COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. That could be a credible reason why a potential lab leak went unnoticed for long enough to begin uncontrolled community spread.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago
> COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. Is this actually true? It is certainly not true for HIV, and of course is not relevant to diseases like Zika that are transmitted by mosquitos. Edit: I found the answer to my own question: https://www.kff.org/infographic/ebola-characteristics-and-comparisons-to-other-infectious-diseases/ https://www.kff.org/infographic/ebola-characteristics-and-co... (see second bullet point). Given that this lists Hep C, HIV, Influenza, Malaria, Polio, and Tuberculosis as possible to transmit while asymptomatic, I'd say "COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic." is most definitely false.
- cowmoo728 6y ago
  I can clarify it: COVID-19 is just about the only serious respiratory disease that undergoes rapid exponential spread and is transmissible while asymptomatic. That's a lot of qualifiers, but it makes for a uniquely scary pandemic threat.
- inglor_cz 6y ago
  As always, it is not a 1-0 situation, but a question of degree. You can catch flu from an asymptomatic person, but Covid has a much higher reproduction factor. During the winter lockdown in England, regular flu was completely eradicated - literally not a single case was detected in entire England [0]. At the same time, Covid was still spreading happily. The measures that stopped flu in its tracks only slightly inconvenienced SARS-Cov-2. Covid is simply too good at spreading, compared to other similar diseases. (As an analogy: I can swim, Michael Phelps can swim, we can both call ourselves swimmers, but we are not really comparable.) [0]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-cases-covid-england-phe-latest-b1805124.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-cases-covid-en...
- tasssko 6y ago
  Why is Malaria in the list?
  - fuzxi 6y ago
    Malaria can be (very rarely) transmitted through blood transfusions. https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/us_transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/us_transmission.html
    - Fomite 6y ago
      Or sharing needles! There's a small outbreak in Newark of injection drug users that's one of my favorite "Weird epidemiology papers" for journal clubs.
mrfusion 6y ago
CNN sold us on asymptomatic spread but it’s actually highly unlikely: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w
- geoduck14 6y ago
  I personally know people who went to a party and got sick from an asymptomatic person.
  - geoduck14 6y ago
    Why was this down voted?
    - vixen99 6y ago
      You really have tabs on all the innumerable factors involved in a scenario where someone goes to a party and later becomes infected - and pinpoint the reason ?
      - geoduck14 6y ago
        At the party, there were 42 people present. 16 got sick. In many cases husbands got sick first, then wives. All of these are in a close social network (they either work together, or are married to an employee) - so keeping tabs on each other is very likely. Many of them were socially distancing before hand (I can attest to 4 of them, directly) - so external infections are unlikely, but possible. Due to the timing, the general consensus is that the husbands contacted the disease from one male (close hugging or extended talking) and then gave it to their wives that night.
- yosito 6y ago
  I've seen this study shared around anti-vaxer groups trying to claim that asymptomatic spread is unlikely. But this study does not prove that at all. They screened 10 million people with no symptoms, and found 300 asymptomatic cases. Then they re-screened 1200 contacts of those cases and didn't find any more cases that they missed. This doesn't prove that asymptomatic spread is unlikely. It proves that the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 when they did the screening was very low, and that 100% of the cases they found were asymptomatic. I'd be careful to draw conclusions from just one Chinese study, but if anything, this study suggests the opposite of what you're claiming.

hn_throwaway_99 6y ago

> COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic. Is this actually true? It is certainly not true for HIV, and of course is not relevant to diseases like Zika that are transmitted by mosquitos. Edit: I found the answer to my own question: https://www.kff.org/infographic/ebola-characteristics-and-comparisons-to-other-infectious-diseases/ https://www.kff.org/infographic/ebola-characteristics-and-co... (see second bullet point). Given that this lists Hep C, HIV, Influenza, Malaria, Polio, and Tuberculosis as possible to transmit while asymptomatic, I'd say "COVID-19 is one of the few serious diseases that can transmit when the carrier is asymptomatic." is most definitely false.

cowmoo728 6y ago
I can clarify it: COVID-19 is just about the only serious respiratory disease that undergoes rapid exponential spread and is transmissible while asymptomatic. That's a lot of qualifiers, but it makes for a uniquely scary pandemic threat.
inglor_cz 6y ago
As always, it is not a 1-0 situation, but a question of degree. You can catch flu from an asymptomatic person, but Covid has a much higher reproduction factor. During the winter lockdown in England, regular flu was completely eradicated - literally not a single case was detected in entire England [0]. At the same time, Covid was still spreading happily. The measures that stopped flu in its tracks only slightly inconvenienced SARS-Cov-2. Covid is simply too good at spreading, compared to other similar diseases. (As an analogy: I can swim, Michael Phelps can swim, we can both call ourselves swimmers, but we are not really comparable.) [0]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-cases-covid-england-phe-latest-b1805124.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/flu-cases-covid-en...
tasssko 6y ago
Why is Malaria in the list?
- fuzxi 6y ago
  Malaria can be (very rarely) transmitted through blood transfusions. https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/us_transmission.html https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/us_transmission.html
  - Fomite 6y ago
    Or sharing needles! There's a small outbreak in Newark of injection drug users that's one of my favorite "Weird epidemiology papers" for journal clubs.

mrfusion 6y ago

CNN sold us on asymptomatic spread but it’s actually highly unlikely: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

geoduck14 6y ago
I personally know people who went to a party and got sick from an asymptomatic person.
- geoduck14 6y ago
  Why was this down voted?
  - vixen99 6y ago
    You really have tabs on all the innumerable factors involved in a scenario where someone goes to a party and later becomes infected - and pinpoint the reason ?
    - geoduck14 6y ago
      At the party, there were 42 people present. 16 got sick. In many cases husbands got sick first, then wives. All of these are in a close social network (they either work together, or are married to an employee) - so keeping tabs on each other is very likely. Many of them were socially distancing before hand (I can attest to 4 of them, directly) - so external infections are unlikely, but possible. Due to the timing, the general consensus is that the husbands contacted the disease from one male (close hugging or extended talking) and then gave it to their wives that night.
yosito 6y ago
I've seen this study shared around anti-vaxer groups trying to claim that asymptomatic spread is unlikely. But this study does not prove that at all. They screened 10 million people with no symptoms, and found 300 asymptomatic cases. Then they re-screened 1200 contacts of those cases and didn't find any more cases that they missed. This doesn't prove that asymptomatic spread is unlikely. It proves that the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 when they did the screening was very low, and that 100% of the cases they found were asymptomatic. I'd be careful to draw conclusions from just one Chinese study, but if anything, this study suggests the opposite of what you're claiming.