4 ms·

IMO it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak. It doesn't matter much however since there is no evidence, and any evidence of such will likely be covere

by kneel 6y ago

IMO it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak. It doesn't matter much however since there is no evidence, and any evidence of such will likely be covered up. Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations, so much so that we'll likely never find the origins.

Johnny555 6y ago
I think that's how so many conspiracy theories spread. "IMO, I think it's very likely that the moon landings were faked. It doesn't matter since there is no evidence of the fake landings and any evidence of such will likely be covered up, like the way they got scientists to pretend that there are retroreflectors on the moon". As long as people believe that evidence is covered up, then they can believe anything.
- airhead969 6y ago
  It's easier to believe in a grand conspiracy to make one seem special and part of a tribe than accept the banality, incompetence, chaos, and coincidences of reality.
duxup 6y ago
>Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations I duno if that would ever really happen. I think much like a lot of things, concerns about Uyghurs it would just dissolve into the diplomatic and economic seas.
ekianjo 6y ago
> Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations True. And not just economic reparations, you can imagine diplomatic relations and all would be severely impacted.
theptip 6y ago
> it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak What evidence is informing this belief? i.e. what is your model for assigning "P>0.5" to the probability here? For example do you think the SARS outbreak circa 2002 was also a lab escape?
- kneel 6y ago
  You misquoted me, I said 'IMO...' I've worked in several labs, created several viruses (non-pathogenic) myself. People are careless, did you read the article?
  - theptip 6y ago
    Do you feel that I was misquoting you because you don't think of it as a belief as you prefaced it with "IMO", or do you take issue with me translating "very likely" to "P>0.5"? (Or maybe something else?) I wasn't trying to be confrontational about it, just trying to understand why that's your opinion. In particular I was curious about your "very likely", because my priors are that most infectious diseases are not caused by lab leaks, and that there's no particular evidence of a lab leak here (though as you say plenty of reason to believe such evidence would be suppressed). But it's not my field so I'm not strongly attached to those priors. I'd certainly agree with the article's premise that the lab theory should not be dismissed out of hand, but I think that's a different conclusion than saying "it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak". My takeaway from the article is "it's possible, but still not very likely", though I suppose I'd give a higher % of probability now than before reading the article.
lettergram 6y ago
If I recall correctly, Fauci’s org funded gain of function research on corona viruses. https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-research-to-wuhan/ https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-re... Surely they’ve been receiving reports on progress, if so I’m sure there could be a match. Similarly, I believe there were scientists in India who determined the capsule which deploys the virus into cells looks exactly the same as the HIV mechanism. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Scientists-slam-Indian-study-that-fueled-coronavirus-rumors https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Scientists-slam-Ind... This kinda matches people testing positive for HIV in an Australian vaccine trial: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/world/australia/uq-coronavirus-vaccine-false-positive.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/world/australia/uq-corona...

by kneel 6y ago

Johnny555 6y ago

I think that's how so many conspiracy theories spread. "IMO, I think it's very likely that the moon landings were faked. It doesn't matter since there is no evidence of the fake landings and any evidence of such will likely be covered up, like the way they got scientists to pretend that there are retroreflectors on the moon". As long as people believe that evidence is covered up, then they can believe anything.

airhead969 6y ago
It's easier to believe in a grand conspiracy to make one seem special and part of a tribe than accept the banality, incompetence, chaos, and coincidences of reality.

duxup 6y ago

>Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations I duno if that would ever really happen. I think much like a lot of things, concerns about Uyghurs it would just dissolve into the diplomatic and economic seas.

ekianjo 6y ago

> Being culpable for a disaster on this scale would be unprecedented in the economic reparations True. And not just economic reparations, you can imagine diplomatic relations and all would be severely impacted.

theptip 6y ago

> it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak What evidence is informing this belief? i.e. what is your model for assigning "P>0.5" to the probability here? For example do you think the SARS outbreak circa 2002 was also a lab escape?

kneel 6y ago
You misquoted me, I said 'IMO...' I've worked in several labs, created several viruses (non-pathogenic) myself. People are careless, did you read the article?
- theptip 6y ago
  Do you feel that I was misquoting you because you don't think of it as a belief as you prefaced it with "IMO", or do you take issue with me translating "very likely" to "P>0.5"? (Or maybe something else?) I wasn't trying to be confrontational about it, just trying to understand why that's your opinion. In particular I was curious about your "very likely", because my priors are that most infectious diseases are not caused by lab leaks, and that there's no particular evidence of a lab leak here (though as you say plenty of reason to believe such evidence would be suppressed). But it's not my field so I'm not strongly attached to those priors. I'd certainly agree with the article's premise that the lab theory should not be dismissed out of hand, but I think that's a different conclusion than saying "it's very likely to have originated in a lab leak". My takeaway from the article is "it's possible, but still not very likely", though I suppose I'd give a higher % of probability now than before reading the article.

lettergram 6y ago

If I recall correctly, Fauci’s org funded gain of function research on corona viruses. https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-research-to-wuhan/ https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/why-us-outsourced-bat-virus-re... Surely they’ve been receiving reports on progress, if so I’m sure there could be a match. Similarly, I believe there were scientists in India who determined the capsule which deploys the virus into cells looks exactly the same as the HIV mechanism. https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Scientists-slam-Indian-study-that-fueled-coronavirus-rumors https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Scientists-slam-Ind... This kinda matches people testing positive for HIV in an Australian vaccine trial: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/world/australia/uq-coronavirus-vaccine-false-positive.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/11/world/australia/uq-corona...