3 ms·

Pretty much. Some additional insight I've heard is that COVID has restricted peoples ability to consume things other than housing, so people have the ability to

Pretty much. Some additional insight I've heard is that COVID has restricted peoples ability to consume things other than housing, so people have the ability to consume more housing. If a family normally spent $7k on housing every year but didn't because of COVID, that is $7k more they have for a down payment, which means they can buy $35k more house.

ghaff 6y ago
One interesting question is how much of this is pulling in activity that would have played out in a similar way over the next few years. For example, it's not uncommon for young people who get married, maybe have kids, to move out of a city to the suburbs for more space and better schools. To the degree it's actions that would have happened anyway, it probably implies there will be something of a dip after the current spike.
- asdff 6y ago
  I'm not so sure we'd see a dip in housing, although we see the dip in luxury rental prices. The reasons for this is due to supply, or a lack thereof. There are new generations looking to settle down and do the above every single year. Every year more than the last are doing this, this is an expanding world. Yet, these areas where these people are moving to are not building the corresponding amount of housing required to meet demand. With not enough new housing built, prices rise, and people 'drive to where they qualify,' stretch out their car based commute, and we all deal with those externalities from the increased congestion and pollution no matter where we live in the city. It's a lose lose unless the US finally bends and start building housing, but they haven't done this in earnest since the boom after WWII (where we are still bidding on that hastily constructed housing stock today, because that's legally all there is in some neighborhoods).

3 ms·

Pretty much. Some additional insight I've heard is that COVID has restricted peoples ability to consume things other than housing, so people have the ability to

by topkai22 6y ago

ghaff 6y ago
One interesting question is how much of this is pulling in activity that would have played out in a similar way over the next few years. For example, it's not uncommon for young people who get married, maybe have kids, to move out of a city to the suburbs for more space and better schools. To the degree it's actions that would have happened anyway, it probably implies there will be something of a dip after the current spike.
- asdff 6y ago
  I'm not so sure we'd see a dip in housing, although we see the dip in luxury rental prices. The reasons for this is due to supply, or a lack thereof. There are new generations looking to settle down and do the above every single year. Every year more than the last are doing this, this is an expanding world. Yet, these areas where these people are moving to are not building the corresponding amount of housing required to meet demand. With not enough new housing built, prices rise, and people 'drive to where they qualify,' stretch out their car based commute, and we all deal with those externalities from the increased congestion and pollution no matter where we live in the city. It's a lose lose unless the US finally bends and start building housing, but they haven't done this in earnest since the boom after WWII (where we are still bidding on that hastily constructed housing stock today, because that's legally all there is in some neighborhoods).