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After Starship, Elon has stated he wants an upgraded Starship with double the radius: https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-the-next-generation/ h

After Starship, Elon has stated he wants an upgraded Starship with double the radius: https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-the-next-generation/ https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-the-next... After that, orbital infrastructure: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1373132222555848713 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1373132222555848713 And possibly nuclear propulsion? https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1153378777893888005 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1153378777893888005 Not to mention colonies on other planets: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1373735946244431873 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1373735946244431873 Most of that is pretty long-term though. I suspect Starship will remain a commercially viable platform for quite some time after its inception.

Someone 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship mostly lists uses that don’t have a real market right now: - Reusable launch system - Intercontinental transport - Space tourism - Earth–lunar transport - Mars colonization - Multiplanetary transport The only thing with an existing market in that list is “launch system”. They’ll have to develop the market for 100 ton launches, though (100 tons is 20% of the mass of the ISS) Because of that, I would say starship still has to prove it is commercially viable. Space tourism, in particular, highly depends on how safe one can make the trip. A 1:1000 risk of death likely would make many would-be passengers think twice before booking a trip. It also would depend on making the trip nice. The first few tourists might go for bragging rights, but after that, one would need attractions in space. Building those there will increase the cost of a trip.
- NortySpock 6y ago
  Earth-Lunar transport now technically has a market: CLPS https://www.nasa.gov/content/commercial-lunar-payload-services https://www.nasa.gov/content/commercial-lunar-payload-servic... Granted, it's a monopsony for now but... Also, the next market might be "companies who want to mine asteroids for rare metals or rocket fuel", in which case SpaceX may be in the "sells pickaxes to gold miners" business. Those who pursue asteroid mining would do well to review the history of recently dormant or acquired companies such as Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries, and Shackleton Energy Company.
  - AstralStorm 6y ago
    Not even close, Starship even in biggest variant is not a tug or a space station.
- cryptonector 6y ago
  Yes, it may well be that there's no market for 100 tons to orbit launch vehicles. It also may be that the only "market" for interplanetary travel is taxpayer funding. It's also possible that 100 tons to orbit for super low cost might be so transformative that in a couple of decades time we might actually see asteroid mining (which even now seems farfetched) to pay for it all.
- Ajedi32 6y ago
  Elon has stated that Starship will likely be cheaper per-launch than Falcon 9 despite having more than 5x the payload capacity: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033 (Guessing this is primarily due to reusability of the second stage, which Falcon 9 lacks.) So even if everything else fails to pan out Starship could still end up being extremely profitable just by dominating the existing launch market. That said, I agree that some of Elon's longer-term goals in space are somewhat more questionable from an economic perspective. Safety is still a big question mark when it comes to tourism and intercontinental transport, and a lot of the other proposed uses (such as Elon's goal of settling Mars) have questionable economic value. Will be interesting to see if any new markets get created by Starhip's record low launch costs.

Someone 6y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship mostly lists uses that don’t have a real market right now: - Reusable launch system - Intercontinental transport - Space tourism - Earth–lunar transport - Mars colonization - Multiplanetary transport The only thing with an existing market in that list is “launch system”. They’ll have to develop the market for 100 ton launches, though (100 tons is 20% of the mass of the ISS) Because of that, I would say starship still has to prove it is commercially viable. Space tourism, in particular, highly depends on how safe one can make the trip. A 1:1000 risk of death likely would make many would-be passengers think twice before booking a trip. It also would depend on making the trip nice. The first few tourists might go for bragging rights, but after that, one would need attractions in space. Building those there will increase the cost of a trip.

NortySpock 6y ago
Earth-Lunar transport now technically has a market: CLPS https://www.nasa.gov/content/commercial-lunar-payload-services https://www.nasa.gov/content/commercial-lunar-payload-servic... Granted, it's a monopsony for now but... Also, the next market might be "companies who want to mine asteroids for rare metals or rocket fuel", in which case SpaceX may be in the "sells pickaxes to gold miners" business. Those who pursue asteroid mining would do well to review the history of recently dormant or acquired companies such as Planetary Resources, Deep Space Industries, and Shackleton Energy Company.
- AstralStorm 6y ago
  Not even close, Starship even in biggest variant is not a tug or a space station.
cryptonector 6y ago
Yes, it may well be that there's no market for 100 tons to orbit launch vehicles. It also may be that the only "market" for interplanetary travel is taxpayer funding. It's also possible that 100 tons to orbit for super low cost might be so transformative that in a couple of decades time we might actually see asteroid mining (which even now seems farfetched) to pay for it all.
Ajedi32 6y ago
Elon has stated that Starship will likely be cheaper per-launch than Falcon 9 despite having more than 5x the payload capacity: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033 (Guessing this is primarily due to reusability of the second stage, which Falcon 9 lacks.) So even if everything else fails to pan out Starship could still end up being extremely profitable just by dominating the existing launch market. That said, I agree that some of Elon's longer-term goals in space are somewhat more questionable from an economic perspective. Safety is still a big question mark when it comes to tourism and intercontinental transport, and a lot of the other proposed uses (such as Elon's goal of settling Mars) have questionable economic value. Will be interesting to see if any new markets get created by Starhip's record low launch costs.