Regarding your third point, you are baking in an assumption that the UK AZ vaccine is the same as the EU vaccine, but they made in different facilities. There

Regarding your third point, you are baking in an assumption that the UK AZ vaccine is the same as the EU vaccine, but they made in different facilities. There could be a manufacturing issue that causes this. There could be a genetic issue that causes this. There could be a drug interaction issue that causes this. There could be an issue with how the doses are being injected. Or it could be a total coincidence and these issues were caused by something else. Regarding your first point, the chances of dying from COVID in the USA if you are under 20 are like 1/100,000 if you have no pre-existing conditions. All people under 40 is probably higher than that, but I wouldn't take that AZ shot if there was a 1/25,000 shot of dropping dead. I certainly wouldn't give it my children. I'm not saying those are the odds of dropping dead from the AZ shot, but if they were, its not worth it for younger people.