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I'm a big fan of electrics cars, but maybe the demise of the ICE is greatly exaggerated? I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for t

I'm a big fan of electrics cars, but maybe the demise of the ICE is greatly exaggerated? I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time.

pornel 6y ago
Even if all ICE production stopped today, we'd have existing cars on the roads for a while. As EV production ramps up, they should get cheaper due to economies of scale and the technology maturing. Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful, but that's also a chicken-egg problem that will solve itself. EVs already have significantly lower per-mile cost, so it's only the initial cost that's higher. I think we're not far off from the initial cost falling low enough that it won't make sense to buy new ICE, and then adoption will accelerate rapidly. Look at smartphones. There was a time when they were expensive toys and almost nobody had them, until they reached a tipping point.
- cptskippy 6y ago
  > Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful In what sense?
bryanlarsen 6y ago
You're already wrong. Electric cars already dominate the sub-$5000 car market in China.
- ike77 6y ago
  But China's sub-$5000 cars are far from western safety standard They are even far from Chinese ones, but the government is looking in another direction to give the time to the industry to ramp up. And Chinese EVs that are up to safety standards are not cheap. So I'm not sure your comparison is valid.
srg0 6y ago
> I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time. Various reports estimate electric vehicle cost parity to be achieved around 2025 for small cars, and around 2028 for SUVs (source: theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV_cost_2020_2030_20190401.pdf) Used ICE cars will probably remain a cheaper option for another 10 years.
ip26 6y ago
I agree about a near term possible shift downmarket, but don't forget to consider what could happen if gas stations started to go under due to a shrinking market. Ease of refueling is a chief advantage, so if it became difficult to locate gas, and the price began to rise, that could be the end.
thinkcontext 6y ago
Multiple non-treehugger analysts like UBS [0] have predicted that upfront price parity between ICE and EVs will be achieved around the middle of this decade. Add to that lower fuel and maintenance costs plus the likelihood of a rising carbon price and the economic case becomes even more compelling. [0] https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/22/ubs-predicts-ev-price-parity-in-2024/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/22/ubs-predicts-ev-price-p...
- cbmuser 6y ago
  Good luck driving through the Siberian taiga or the Arozonian desert with a battery-powered car. Or what about emergency vehicles with electric motors? “We’re sorry, Mr. Miller, we can’t come to your burning house right now, we need to recharge our batteries first.” I’m sorry, but battery-powered cars have a very limited usecase. There is a reason why the vast majority of cars beind sold are still using combustion engines.
  - asutekku 6y ago
    I would say it’s the other way around. Only minority of use cases (like in your example, what’s the ratio of people using vehicles in environments like that) have a need for combustion engine. For most people a vehicle that gets from a point A to point B with the distance being 10-50km is enough. And for that EVs even now are more than adequate. It’s just that there’s always this mythical ”long trip” coming that people use as an excuse for the need of an ICE. vehicle.
    - SEJeff 6y ago
      And the Tesla Model S LR has a range of 402 miles, but it is increasing every year. Lucid Motors is coming out with a car that has a 500 mile range. The "omg range is a problem" crowd is in for a rude awakening when you can go further on a single charge than most vehicles can on a single tank of gas.
jillesvangurp 6y ago
ASP for EVs are dropping slowly over the last few years but it is still higher. But that's not because it's not technically possible to make cheap EVs. Just look at the Chinese market. If it has wheels, you can turn it into an EV for not that many dollars. It's not technically hard to do so. They are looking to enter the European market with EVs priced below 10K even. That would create some issues for ICE manufacturers dependent on selling more expensive ICE vehicles. A high volume market entry could wipe out a lot of cheap ICE cars. Short term battery supply basically means the market gets squeezed top down. You get better margins putting the same battery in a 30K car than in a 20K car. And since demand is there, you see manufacturers trying to saturate that market before they target cheaper price points. Some manufacturers that are doing combined ICE/hybrid/EV strategies are essentially pricing their EVs higher because they only produce them in limited volume and customers seem to buy them despite the high price. Also, if they'd price them lower, they'd kill their legacy business and sink that investment. The problem with that strategy is when EV only manufacturers start shipping better & cheaper cars in increasing volume. This is starting to happen and it's a market that looks like it will be doubling every year for some time.
SEJeff 6y ago
Why do you think that? A standard range Tesla Model 3 starts at 33,190 and is still an absolutely fantastic vehicle. The exact same Tesla that I bought in 2018 (Long range all wheel drive) is almost $10,000 less today than when I purchased it. As the economies of scale improve, the prices go down. As more and more manufacturers move to BEV vehicles, the manufacturing / parts will become more commodity and hence cheaper. Tesla really pushed the needle, but the VW group going entirely electric is going to massively force the issue. Their all electric Porsche, the Taycan, was the best selling Porsche of last year and this year so far. Also now that there are multiple manufacturers making serious electric vehicles, that encourages them to compete amongst each other on price. All of these leads to the overwhelmingly obvious conclusion that EVs are going to get massively cheaper in the next 2-5 years. One of the biggest selling points is also the lower fuel prices and limited scheduled maintenance. An EV is simply cheaper to operate than most ICE vehicles, and that is not really going to change. Also note that you can get really good EVs used for a massively lower price. There is absolutely nothing wrong with ICE vehicles, but the writing is on the wall.

pornel 6y ago

Even if all ICE production stopped today, we'd have existing cars on the roads for a while. As EV production ramps up, they should get cheaper due to economies of scale and the technology maturing. Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful, but that's also a chicken-egg problem that will solve itself. EVs already have significantly lower per-mile cost, so it's only the initial cost that's higher. I think we're not far off from the initial cost falling low enough that it won't make sense to buy new ICE, and then adoption will accelerate rapidly. Look at smartphones. There was a time when they were expensive toys and almost nobody had them, until they reached a tipping point.

cptskippy 6y ago
> Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful In what sense?

bryanlarsen 6y ago

You're already wrong. Electric cars already dominate the sub-$5000 car market in China.

ike77 6y ago
But China's sub-$5000 cars are far from western safety standard They are even far from Chinese ones, but the government is looking in another direction to give the time to the industry to ramp up. And Chinese EVs that are up to safety standards are not cheap. So I'm not sure your comparison is valid.

srg0 6y ago

> I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time. Various reports estimate electric vehicle cost parity to be achieved around 2025 for small cars, and around 2028 for SUVs (source: theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV_cost_2020_2030_20190401.pdf) Used ICE cars will probably remain a cheaper option for another 10 years.

ip26 6y ago

I agree about a near term possible shift downmarket, but don't forget to consider what could happen if gas stations started to go under due to a shrinking market. Ease of refueling is a chief advantage, so if it became difficult to locate gas, and the price began to rise, that could be the end.

thinkcontext 6y ago

Multiple non-treehugger analysts like UBS [0] have predicted that upfront price parity between ICE and EVs will be achieved around the middle of this decade. Add to that lower fuel and maintenance costs plus the likelihood of a rising carbon price and the economic case becomes even more compelling. [0] https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/22/ubs-predicts-ev-price-parity-in-2024/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/22/ubs-predicts-ev-price-p...

cbmuser 6y ago
Good luck driving through the Siberian taiga or the Arozonian desert with a battery-powered car. Or what about emergency vehicles with electric motors? “We’re sorry, Mr. Miller, we can’t come to your burning house right now, we need to recharge our batteries first.” I’m sorry, but battery-powered cars have a very limited usecase. There is a reason why the vast majority of cars beind sold are still using combustion engines.
- asutekku 6y ago
  I would say it’s the other way around. Only minority of use cases (like in your example, what’s the ratio of people using vehicles in environments like that) have a need for combustion engine. For most people a vehicle that gets from a point A to point B with the distance being 10-50km is enough. And for that EVs even now are more than adequate. It’s just that there’s always this mythical ”long trip” coming that people use as an excuse for the need of an ICE. vehicle.
  - SEJeff 6y ago
    And the Tesla Model S LR has a range of 402 miles, but it is increasing every year. Lucid Motors is coming out with a car that has a 500 mile range. The "omg range is a problem" crowd is in for a rude awakening when you can go further on a single charge than most vehicles can on a single tank of gas.

jillesvangurp 6y ago

ASP for EVs are dropping slowly over the last few years but it is still higher. But that's not because it's not technically possible to make cheap EVs. Just look at the Chinese market. If it has wheels, you can turn it into an EV for not that many dollars. It's not technically hard to do so. They are looking to enter the European market with EVs priced below 10K even. That would create some issues for ICE manufacturers dependent on selling more expensive ICE vehicles. A high volume market entry could wipe out a lot of cheap ICE cars. Short term battery supply basically means the market gets squeezed top down. You get better margins putting the same battery in a 30K car than in a 20K car. And since demand is there, you see manufacturers trying to saturate that market before they target cheaper price points. Some manufacturers that are doing combined ICE/hybrid/EV strategies are essentially pricing their EVs higher because they only produce them in limited volume and customers seem to buy them despite the high price. Also, if they'd price them lower, they'd kill their legacy business and sink that investment. The problem with that strategy is when EV only manufacturers start shipping better & cheaper cars in increasing volume. This is starting to happen and it's a market that looks like it will be doubling every year for some time.

SEJeff 6y ago

Why do you think that? A standard range Tesla Model 3 starts at 33,190 and is still an absolutely fantastic vehicle. The exact same Tesla that I bought in 2018 (Long range all wheel drive) is almost $10,000 less today than when I purchased it. As the economies of scale improve, the prices go down. As more and more manufacturers move to BEV vehicles, the manufacturing / parts will become more commodity and hence cheaper. Tesla really pushed the needle, but the VW group going entirely electric is going to massively force the issue. Their all electric Porsche, the Taycan, was the best selling Porsche of last year and this year so far. Also now that there are multiple manufacturers making serious electric vehicles, that encourages them to compete amongst each other on price. All of these leads to the overwhelmingly obvious conclusion that EVs are going to get massively cheaper in the next 2-5 years. One of the biggest selling points is also the lower fuel prices and limited scheduled maintenance. An EV is simply cheaper to operate than most ICE vehicles, and that is not really going to change. Also note that you can get really good EVs used for a massively lower price. There is absolutely nothing wrong with ICE vehicles, but the writing is on the wall.