4 ms·

For anyone who wants to set their Bayesian priors to estimate the probability of a lab leak I recommend this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accide

by 0-_-0 6y ago

For anyone who wants to set their Bayesian priors to estimate the probability of a lab leak I recommend this list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_laboratory_biosecurity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incident... For example, the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV-1) escaped from the lab twice, both in 2003 and 2004.

offby37years 6y ago
And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology is one of only two BSL–4 labs in China.
- robin21 6y ago
  > BSL-4 level lab put into operation in January 2018 And only 2 years later we have an outbreak
AdamJacobMuller 6y ago
Lab 257 is an amazing book about germ research labs. It fascinated me both with how hard it is to contain diseases under ideal conditions (lab 257 was on an island miles from anything inhabited) and how poor of a job people who should have known better, the actual virologists and people with MDs, did at containing diseases they were researching. https://www.amazon.com/Lab-257-Disturbing-Governments-Laboratory/dp/0060011416 https://www.amazon.com/Lab-257-Disturbing-Governments-Labora... Warning: this book is non-fiction and is scary.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > Warning: this book is non-fiction and is scary. It may be scary, but it's not non-fiction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_257#Discredited_conspiracy_theories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_257#Discredited_consp... > A discredited 2004 book entitled Lab 257: The Disturbing Story of the Government's Secret Plum Island Germ Laboratory fueled the conspiracy theories. Archived specimens show that Lyme disease was endemic well before the establishment of Plum Island laboratory. Additionally, Lyme disease was never a topic of research at Plum Island, according to the US Department of Homeland Security and Department of Agriculture.
- astura 6y ago
  That book is a work of fiction. The summary on Amazon itself is incredibly laughable (Plum island is not "unmarked on most maps").
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
koheripbal 6y ago
Also important to remember that the WIV had ongoing research in bat coronaviruses. Now that isn't unusual after SARS, but it does slightly make the theory more plausible.
throwawaysea 6y ago
Also, the Obama administration banned gain of function research broadly due to "biosafety incidents" at federal research labs in the US. The announcement explicitly called out research on SARS: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/10/17/doing-diligence-assess-risks-and-benefits-life-sciences-gain-function-research https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/10/17/doing-d...
ricksunny 6y ago
further priors-updating: SARS escaped from the lab 4 times - Once each in Singapore and Taiwan, and yes twice in Beijing: https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1351198664950128641?s=20 https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1351198664950128641?s... https://gillesdemaneuf.medium.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-a-review-of-sars-lab-escapes-898d203d175d https://gillesdemaneuf.medium.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-u...

by 0-_-0 6y ago

offby37years 6y ago

And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology is one of only two BSL–4 labs in China.

robin21 6y ago
> BSL-4 level lab put into operation in January 2018 And only 2 years later we have an outbreak

AdamJacobMuller 6y ago

Lab 257 is an amazing book about germ research labs. It fascinated me both with how hard it is to contain diseases under ideal conditions (lab 257 was on an island miles from anything inhabited) and how poor of a job people who should have known better, the actual virologists and people with MDs, did at containing diseases they were researching. https://www.amazon.com/Lab-257-Disturbing-Governments-Laboratory/dp/0060011416 https://www.amazon.com/Lab-257-Disturbing-Governments-Labora... Warning: this book is non-fiction and is scary.

ceejayoz 6y ago
> Warning: this book is non-fiction and is scary. It may be scary, but it's not non-fiction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_257#Discredited_conspiracy_theories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Building_257#Discredited_consp... > A discredited 2004 book entitled Lab 257: The Disturbing Story of the Government's Secret Plum Island Germ Laboratory fueled the conspiracy theories. Archived specimens show that Lyme disease was endemic well before the establishment of Plum Island laboratory. Additionally, Lyme disease was never a topic of research at Plum Island, according to the US Department of Homeland Security and Department of Agriculture.
astura 6y ago
That book is a work of fiction. The summary on Amazon itself is incredibly laughable (Plum island is not "unmarked on most maps").

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

koheripbal 6y ago

Also important to remember that the WIV had ongoing research in bat coronaviruses. Now that isn't unusual after SARS, but it does slightly make the theory more plausible.

throwawaysea 6y ago

Also, the Obama administration banned gain of function research broadly due to "biosafety incidents" at federal research labs in the US. The announcement explicitly called out research on SARS: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/10/17/doing-diligence-assess-risks-and-benefits-life-sciences-gain-function-research https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2014/10/17/doing-d...

ricksunny 6y ago

further priors-updating: SARS escaped from the lab 4 times - Once each in Singapore and Taiwan, and yes twice in Beijing: https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1351198664950128641?s=20 https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1351198664950128641?s... https://gillesdemaneuf.medium.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-a-review-of-sars-lab-escapes-898d203d175d https://gillesdemaneuf.medium.com/the-good-the-bad-and-the-u...