My (non-expert) view on this: If China attacks Taiwan (and the TSMC fabs are destroyed), everyone loses, including China. In the short term, it would probably

My (non-expert) view on this: If China attacks Taiwan (and the TSMC fabs are destroyed), everyone loses, including China. In the short term, it would probably hurt the West more, but once fabs in the West start spinning up, China would risk being embargoed from the most efficient chips, putting them far behind until they can catch up. (All the lithography machines seem to be coming from ASML in the Netherlands). This may change in 5 years or so when China has caught up more, and is less dependent on TSMC chips. And China has patience. They'll deal with Hong Kong and Xinjiang first, ensure independence, then invade.